Niederhoffer thinks "follow the trend" sucks

[Pekelo]

One of points that Niederhoffer most steadfastly advocates is to go with the drift, ie trade/invest in the direction of the long term rise in equity markets.

aka trend?

 

[MrN]

I'm not sure if he considers the equity drift a trend, why don't you ask him yourself?

 

[marketsurfer]

I would like to, but it is useless.
Why? Because if you don't even understand that trends have more profit potential, at a lower price, than countertrend, you will surely not understand this math. It would be a waste of energy.
Also, I need countertrendders as i am trendfollower. Somebody should pay me the money.

You can already start with this:
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/average-of-trades-per-day.291830/page-3#post-4129269

Huh? I guess you can't back up your claim.

surf

 

[i am nobody]

I guess the point I'm making is that we can't work out which kind of trader will profit in every market.

So it means that an expert trader in a market that offers only 1 point can make more money than an idiot trading a 100 point move and missing it completely.
But this means that not the trend but the trader is the cause of the result. Or in other words: this doesn't proof anything about trend or countertrend trading.

If a trader can perfectly take all the trends, he will always beat the countertrend trader who can perfectly take all the countertrends. That is mathematically for 100% sure.

I will give another very stupid but very clear example. This example follows the logic used to conclude that countertrend is more profitable (the trader determines the result, not the market).
I drive a car that can reach 50 mph. Someone else drives a car that can reach 200 mph. We start to race and I reach the 50 mph. The other driver cannot drive his car at all and does not dare to go faster than 25 mph. At the finish the conclusion is that a 50 mph car is faster than a 200 mph car. The driver determined the result, not the car.

 

[i am nobody]

Huh? I guess you can't back up your claim.

surf

I told you in advance that you would not understand it. That it was a waste of energy. You just confirmed my statement.

 

[romik]

Than again VN can't really back his claim, can he now? His opinion is subjective.

 

[dbphoenix]

If a trader can perfectly take all the trends, he will always beat the countertrend trader who can perfectly take all the countertrends. That is mathematically for 100% sure.

 

[marketsurfer]

I told you in advance that you would not understand it. That it was a waste of energy. You just confirmed my statement.

Really? My group consists of Math wiz and finance PhD's so drop the pretension. surf

 

[i am nobody]

Really? My group consists of Math wiz and finance PhD's so drop the pretension. surf

From Romik:Than again VN can't really back his claim, can he now? His opinion is subjective.

Your group??? It's like the mouse and the elephant who ran through the desert. The mouse said: we make a lot of dust, don't we?
You are the mouse.
The intelligence of your group does not give you any intelligence. I know very smart people too. But that does not make me smart. But to understand that you should be smart enough yourselve.

 

[marketsurfer]

From Romik:Than again VN can't really back his claim, can he now? His opinion is subjective.

Your group??? It's like the mouse and the elephant who ran through the desert. The mouse said: we make a lot of dust, don't we?
You are the mouse.
The intelligence of your group does not give you any intelligence. I know very smart people too. But that does not make me smart. But to understand that you should be smart enough yourselve.

The bottom line is you made a statement. You cant back it up so now you are lashing out. Typical trend trader. surf