Niederhoffer thinks "follow the trend" sucks

marketsurfer said:
the fact is trend trading is an inferior trading tactic.
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That's like saying running a restaurant chain is an inferior way of making money (compared to running a business in another industry). Yes that is how dumb your argument is. Your statement is very revealing as you are biased to typical black and white thinking.

'my methodology is best, all other methodology is inferior'
 
Countertrend trading has no statistical edge over trend followers as there are too many variables involved to establish any sort of superiority of one over the other. That statement sucks. Markets are driven by sentiment, which can be countertrend or with a trend.
 
romik said:
Countertrend trading has no statistical edge over trend followers as there are too many variables involved to establish any sort of superiority of one over the other. That statement sucks. Markets are driven by sentiment, which can be countertrend or with a trend.
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This is nothing but old wives tales and platitudes.

what tests have you conducted to make that statement with such authority? Obviously you never have.

We ( my old employer) ran tests on the largest database of stock market trades available at the time, it was determined, without a doubt, that stocks have greater odds of advancing after 3-5 down days than after a series of up closes.

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surf
 
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Here is one example Proving going against the short term trend is superior behavior with a chart so you can follow along

image.jpg
 
marketsurfer said:
This is nothing but old wives tales and platitudes.

what tests have you conducted to make that statement with such authority? Obviously you never have.

We ( my old employer) ran tests on the largest database of stock market trades available at the time, it was determined, without a doubt, that stocks have greater odds of advancing after 3-5 down days than after a series of up closes.

.




surf
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Pointless debate. Can't believe you don't understand it.
 
marketsurfer said:
the largest database of stock market trades available at the time, it was determined, without a doubt, that stocks have greater odds of advancing after 3-5 down days than after a series of up closes.surf
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'Greater odds of adancing' means nothing. You're confusing probability with expectancy, typical beginner mistake.

Hint: If probability was all that mattered then we could all get rich selling options because 90% of them expire worthless.
 
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