Niederhoffer on RocknRoll, mike Jackson & Trend Following

these "superfunds of trend following" clearly didn't guess right this year:

Quadriga Superfund L.P. Date NAV Year-To-Date Performance Annualized Performance Cumulative Performance
Quadriga Superfund, L.P. Series A* 08/11/2009 1,354.00 <b>-29.93%</b>
Quadriga Superfund, L.P. Series B* 08/11/2009 1,470.00 <b> -43.48 </b>

would be surprised if this trend fund will survive.


surf
 
Cherry picking again Surf......


Same fund was up 35% last year Surf.

Before that here are the yearly returns:

Starting 1996:

-10 %
+20%
+62%
+25%
+23%
+18%
+38%
+24%
+11%
-3%
+10%
-2%
+35%
-29% (this year)


Seriously Surf.....you are looking more pathetic each post.
 
1. There are many "names" in the trend following space. Dunn is not the only one. I guess people could argue that I am the guilty one for making Dunn more well known over the years. Guilty as charged. He is a great story, but clearly not the only trend following story.

2. Many trend traders, including Dunn, have been left for dead by investors at typically the most inopportune times. I am sure the allocators at Merrill who pulled their money from John W. Henry at the bottom of a drawdown regret that decision. I am sure the allocators at ADIA who pulled money from Dunn at the bottom of a drawdown regret that decision.

3. Am I saying Henry and Dunn are the best? For some people who want higher risk & higher reward they certainly have fit the bill for a long time. Are other trend followers today considered "better"? Sure, Harding of Winton has put up great numbers for over a decade with drawdowns not near Henry's or Dunn's. Henry and Dunn of course put far less men at research than Winton. Different strokes, different folks, but all trend traders.

4. The larger issue here was Niederhoffer's post. He flippantly makes the case that a bunch of trend followers made money decades ago and nothing since. I don't see the basis for that sentiment.
 
Quote from Trend Following:

1. There are many "names" in the trend following space. Dunn is not the only one. I guess people could argue that I am the guilty one for making Dunn more well known over the years. Guilty as charged. He is a great story, but clearly not the only trend following story.

2. Many trend traders, including Dunn, have been left for dead by investors at typically the most inopportune times. I am sure the allocators at Merrill who pulled their money from John W. Henry at the bottom of a drawdown regret that decision. I am sure the allocators at ADIA who pulled money from Dunn at the bottom of a drawdown regret that decision.

3. Am I saying Henry and Dunn are the best? For some people who want higher risk & higher reward they certainly have fit the bill for a long time. Are other trend followers today considered "better"? Sure, Harding of Winton has put up great numbers for over a decade with drawdowns not near Henry's or Dunn's. Henry and Dunn of course put far less men at research than Winton. Different strokes, different folks, but all trend traders.

4. The larger issue here was Niederhoffer's post. He flippantly makes the case that a bunch of trend followers made money decades ago and nothing since. I don't see the basis for that sentiment.
More...



Yeah....great job by Merrill. They pulled 600 Milion out at the absolute bottom of JWH's performance. If they had waited another few months they would have recouped a big chunk (if not all) of the losses as JWH went on a huge tear for the next year and a half. I am sure Merrill's clients were less than thrilled with their timing.
 
Quote from EPrado:

Cherry picking again Surf......


Same fund was up 35% last year Surf.

Before that here are the yearly returns:

Starting 1996:

-10 %
+20%
+62%
+25%
+23%
+18%
+38%
+24%
+11%
-3%
+10%
-2%
+35%
-29% (this year)


Seriously Surf.....you are looking more pathetic each post.
More...

Investors who started out in 1996 are , despite the 29 % drawdown this year, VERY,VERY much in the GREEN..
 
At what point will they go negative?

How about the 43% decline? Are they still positive. Thank you Jesus I didn't invest in January with the Christian on fifth
 
Quote from puretruth:

Investors who started out in 1996 are , despite the 29 % drawdown this year, VERY,VERY much in the GREEN..
More...


Notice how Surf hasn't replied ?


I think he jumped back into his cherry picker and sped off to another thread.
 
Quote from EPrado:

Notice how Surf hasn't replied ?


I think he jumped back into his cherry picker and sped off to another thread.
More...


sorry, i don't get the point. those who bought the stock market in 1950 are also up substantially.

ones who invested in the superfund of trend following January 2009 are down 43% or 29% as of July. that is one huge drawdown, in a short relative period of time.

what is the return needed to recoup a 43% loss? how many years of wins based on the average winning year will it take just to break even???
 
In a general sense trend following drawdowns come from "guessing" wrong. "Guessing" with risk management is trend following. And that makes much more logical sense over predicting with no risk management (typical mutual fund portfolio).
 
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