Niederhoffer new book

freealways · Apr 9, 2003

>>Everyone is free to make up their own minds<<

I would certainly think so. I wouldn't want you (Saynt) or your soul brother (Msfe) to do it for me.

freealways

Pasternak · Apr 10, 2003

Quote from Babak:

Pasternak,

the tone is pretentious and the content riddled with errors.

So, after 30 mins at the bookstore you have read the whole book and found lot of errors? For example?

I have read the book and already made back 100 fold after reading chapter 8. The book was OK, not spectacular. This is fascinating with books: Keep an open mind and ypu'll learn something. Chapter 8 was worth the book for me.

nitro · Apr 10, 2003

I have started reading the book and I have to say I like it!

nitro

Babak · Apr 12, 2003

Quote from Pasternak:

Do you care to say why?

Here is a recent article the same authors wrote on CNBC's website. It encapsulates both the pretentious tone and the errors in critical thinking I mentioned:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p45010.asp

jem · Apr 13, 2003

My favorite models-the best we have seen predicts a nineteen percent rise this year. type a lot of stuff and then say by the way this fantastic model predicted the same thing last year.

Did I actually read that article correctly, I do not want to read it again and I had two beers with dinner. Did he really state that disclaimer at the end to the piece? Why did he write it or bring it to our attention.

The Nasdaq is currently oversold, by the way it was also oversold last year. ??????

I am no stat guy but perhaps his sample size is limited? This guys stuff really is no better than the Motley Fools. Was he really a squash champion? (an accomplishment for which I have tremendous respect).

Vishnu · Apr 13, 2003

Victor and Laurel on the cover of Active Trader magazine with a great interview and review of the book inside.

The main thing I get out of the book and magazine story is the idea that in order to have an edge in these markets one needs to test any assumption, and then test again. There is the idea that price changes have a rougly normal distribution and one can determine with a degree of confidence whether or not a pattern is likely to repeat.

Victor is, at the core, not an author or a system vendor, but a trader who returned 40% a year for years at a time. When I read his stuff I hope to learn a little bit about his methodology for developing trading ideas (and in this book he shares that methodology much more than his first book) and, to be frank, I hope to learn from his mistakes.

marketsurfer · Apr 13, 2003

Quote from Babak:

Here is a recent article the same authors wrote on CNBC's website. It encapsulates both the pretentious tone and the errors in critical thinking I mentioned:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p45010.asp

babak,

the article you mentioned contains excellent points and a unique perspective on the current condition of the equity markets. thank you for posting it.

could you please elaborate on the "errors in critical thinking" that it contains ?

while you may not agree with niederhoffer's points, they are valid and his LONG term success gives him the credibility to write "outside of the box" .

best,

surfer

BlueHorseshoe · Apr 13, 2003

Quote from marketsurfer:

while you may not agree with niederhoffer's points, they are valid and his LONG term success gives him the credibiliy ...

Long term success? He was bust, and he was bust again, and for all intents and purposes remains bust. Not a track record, methodology, or delusion I would consider credible or would emulate.

marketsurfer · Apr 13, 2003

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Long term success? He was bust, and he was bust again, and for all intents and purposes remains bust. Not a track record, methodology, or delusion I would consider credible or would emulate.

WRONG. sorry, he was the number one ranked hedge fund manager in the WORLD for many years. there are very few traders who can match his track record. yes, he blew out--- only because he was trying to stay number one, and to surpass his funds high water mark, extraordinary risks were taken.

best,

surfer

Pabst · Apr 13, 2003

Quote from marketsurfer:

WRONG. sorry, he was the number one ranked hedge fund manager in the WORLD for many years. there are very few traders who can match his track record. yes, he blew out--- only because he was trying to stay number one, and to surpass his funds high water mark, extraordinary risks were taken.

best,

surfer

You're exactly right Surfer. Further the correlation between "talent" and not blowing up is tenuous. Anyone who doesn't recognize Niederhoffer as a tremendously skilled and creative market statistician probably hasn't been in this game too long.