MegaDeth,
In the case of indexes, you are probably correct about a 40% drop, but just because something has never happened does not mean it is impossible. Mr. Taleb has had much to say on that topic-- Black Swans--, and his logic is basically sound, I think.
Nevertheless, even if the indexes never ever drop 40% in a month, my second statement about margin and returns still applies. I think these option are generally closed out so people can free up margin and move on. The SPX market makers are better than most people think in terms of the real price for their options (now they owe me one!!), but they do like to squeeze out that last nickle. You will get the midpoint on a spread occasionally, but most of the time you have to give up a little. If you write SPX options DOTM, you will have to wait and let them expire 99 times out of 100.
In the case of indexes, you are probably correct about a 40% drop, but just because something has never happened does not mean it is impossible. Mr. Taleb has had much to say on that topic-- Black Swans--, and his logic is basically sound, I think.
Nevertheless, even if the indexes never ever drop 40% in a month, my second statement about margin and returns still applies. I think these option are generally closed out so people can free up margin and move on. The SPX market makers are better than most people think in terms of the real price for their options (now they owe me one!!), but they do like to squeeze out that last nickle. You will get the midpoint on a spread occasionally, but most of the time you have to give up a little. If you write SPX options DOTM, you will have to wait and let them expire 99 times out of 100.
