F**k this is a remarkably strong stock... i been making profit trading shorting this thing intraday but it hasn't been easy, even on a day the markets are down 300points!
Nflx
- Thread starter ptrjon
- Start date
A couple things,
nflx recent news, they have access to the same library as pay tv now, that is huge, pay tv is a failing business model. NFLX is in the process of doing to it what it just did to....
Blockbuster.... bankrupt, go try and find it on pinks somewhere.
That said, I am still bearish on the equity, just have to make sure you have good intraday timing, i like the risk/reward to the short side from the 124 to 128 range.
nflx recent news, they have access to the same library as pay tv now, that is huge, pay tv is a failing business model. NFLX is in the process of doing to it what it just did to....
Blockbuster.... bankrupt, go try and find it on pinks somewhere.
That said, I am still bearish on the equity, just have to make sure you have good intraday timing, i like the risk/reward to the short side from the 124 to 128 range.
If you look at the volume, you'll realize that day traders have little effect on this stock consistently making new highs. These runs up are on high volume. Other than the earnings gap down day, the volume on up days far outweighs the volume on down days. This is big money moving price, not day traders.
Institutional investors buy strong stocks. In early March NFLX is downgraded by 3 analysts in pre-market one morning after hitting 52-week highs and bounces right back to not only make new highs but gain 75% in value in less than 2 months. On May 6th NFLX doesn't even touch its previous support level from 2 weeks earlier and a week after the crash hits new 52-week highs again gaining 30% from the May 6th low. NFLX breaks down its uptrend, gaps down on recent earnings, and falls further confirming the new down trend, and comes roaring back in less than 2 weeks to make a new 52-week high on a day the market is down 300 points.
What does this tell you? NFLX is a strong stock and institutional investors buy strong stocks with decent fundamentals (which NFLX has). Couple that with a very high short interest and it doesn't take much to run this one up.
Like all high flyers with rich P/E ratios, they need to impress with continued growth and maintain their competitive edge. If there's any hint of uncertainty in this regard, watch it trade back to the $60's and lower very quickly.
For the eventual fate of other high flying stocks that seemed to be on a trajectory to the moon until the growth story soured, look at STEC from May 2008 through Dec 2009, HOTT from Oct 2008 through Dec 2009, DRYS from Mar 2008 through Nov 2008, and CROX from their IPO in 2006 through Dec 2008. And of course any tech stocks between 1998 and 2001 :eek:
the fundamental is just not there, they are paying $200m a year for the instant viewing of those new movies, not to mention it will still be delayed for 2-3 months. On top of that, the starz contract is expiring soon, there is no doubt there will be a significant cost increase to re-sign it. Also postage price is going up next year as well.
On top of that, the stock is running at 50+ p/e, with blockbuster finally getting their act together (too little to late? maybe not). Allow game rentals on top of no 4 week delay for new movies is a game changer.
That said, better off miss the first leg down then trying to find a top on this one....
On top of that, the stock is running at 50+ p/e, with blockbuster finally getting their act together (too little to late? maybe not). Allow game rentals on top of no 4 week delay for new movies is a game changer.
That said, better off miss the first leg down then trying to find a top on this one....
Yea the things is crazy, there is no float, just phantom shares being passed around ticking it higher. It will probably keep going up until friday. I have been intraday timing buying the sept 140 puts to lower cost average. Down a couple thousand on it now. I am going to keep adding though.
The dot com bubble is back.... PCLN, CRM, BIDU, NFLX... nobody ever learns, LMAO.
The only one I will not short is BIDU.
The dot com bubble is back.... PCLN, CRM, BIDU, NFLX... nobody ever learns, LMAO.
The only one I will not short is BIDU.