25% slide yesterday on weak outlook, 6% slide today. Bulls are running scared. Not even a decent short cover/dip buying bounce yet. 12 million short interest on 55 million shares float. With a book value currently of $12 this pig still has more room to go down.
NFLX Crash
- Thread starter Chuck E. Cheese
- Start date
Slow moving train wreck going on. Shorts are in lock down mode. Company has rising content costs/debts and shrinking equity. Going international maybe too little too late. Victim of their own success.
Def A victim of their own success
Update:
Seem to be stuck like the rest of the market after bouncing off the multi year low of $52.81
Interesting number
Recent high 59.47 (google shows .45) minus low 52.81 = 6.66
The stock is cursed
Very nice trading range around 57-58 for some quick bucks either way.
Very important question is at which price will the funds see value in NFLX or that's it the growth story is over? This will be the price to cover if short or to initiate long position. Right now it's just a trader's stock with trader's volume.
My opinion is while there's some support for NFLX due to the recent bull rush that caused some value hunting buys (weak longs hoping for a bounce over $60). NFLX performance during the next market correction will be very telling. I'm betting that we won't see any type of serious support until low 40's or high 30's or about 3x book value.
Seem to be stuck like the rest of the market after bouncing off the multi year low of $52.81
Interesting number
Recent high 59.47 (google shows .45) minus low 52.81 = 6.66
The stock is cursed
Very nice trading range around 57-58 for some quick bucks either way.
Very important question is at which price will the funds see value in NFLX or that's it the growth story is over? This will be the price to cover if short or to initiate long position. Right now it's just a trader's stock with trader's volume.
My opinion is while there's some support for NFLX due to the recent bull rush that caused some value hunting buys (weak longs hoping for a bounce over $60). NFLX performance during the next market correction will be very telling. I'm betting that we won't see any type of serious support until low 40's or high 30's or about 3x book value.
I think NFLX's business model is unsustainable. When you have to pay huge licensing fees for the movies and your costumer base is not willing to pay a lot for subscription, you have a dead business.
Add competition, and your days are numbered... My guess is that Netflix is going to be bankrupt in 3 years or bought by someone else...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/361571-netflix-major-recapitalization-or-bankruptcy-in-2013
Add competition, and your days are numbered... My guess is that Netflix is going to be bankrupt in 3 years or bought by someone else...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/361571-netflix-major-recapitalization-or-bankruptcy-in-2013
What is going on here - second consecutive gap up with zero pullbacks.
Short squeeze in play? I believe that when shorting beaten down stocks, time is an very important factor. If it can not go down lower within a set amount of time even though all the possible negative news is out than in can pop on something as minute as some lame customer survey net satisfaction results. In most cases surveys can be manipulated to suit the purpose of the surveyor if the survey is intended to be use for some purpose.
But the financial picture for NFLX is still not pretty. Not shorting this ATM.
It did hit $66 in August, it's here now, I wonder if i'll hold...if it doesn't than the pump is full of hot air.
But the financial picture for NFLX is still not pretty. Not shorting this ATM.
It did hit $66 in August, it's here now, I wonder if i'll hold...if it doesn't than the pump is full of hot air.
I used to short this in July/August. Made a couple k of it, and cover to go on vacation. I'm currently holding position in MCP but contemplating to go back into NFLX.