NFLX, attention dip buyers

AAAintheBeltway · Oct 15, 2003

After posting blowout results, NFLX is down afterhours, that after dropping over 3 bucks off its intraday high today during RTH. I'm no analyst but I didn't see any flies in their report. They crushed the number and raised sub estimates for the next quarter. Cancellations also decreased. What's not to like here?

Harry123 · Oct 15, 2003

Say it isnt so the Elite Trader boards have now been brought down to the same level as the Yahoo Message Boards!

Tony01 · Oct 15, 2003

Might have something to do with the fact that its run up over 40% in last couple weeks.

In other words good news already priced in.

Stock looks strong longer term. Its just due for pullback.

Just my 2c,

Tony

BlueHorseshoe · Oct 15, 2003

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

After posting blowout results, NFLX is down afterhours, that after dropping over 3 bucks off its intraday high today during RTH. I'm no analyst but I didn't see any flies in their report. They crushed the number and raised sub estimates for the next quarter. Cancellations also decreased. What's not to like here?

Old news:

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Surf-dude,

Took you up on Short BBI. Came to see Long NFLX is the prettier side of the same coin. Besides, always better to be long in a bull market, no? MSFT or one of the media conglomerates are bound to take NFLX over at some point, and besides, at only 44x ttm earnings it is at a discount to 121x for Ebay. Finally short interest in NFLX is just over the top - everyone will be covering once the Santa Claus effect comes to town.

Anyway, after looking at BBI I've made more w/ NFLX and I'll probably be holding through 4Q.

10/16 - are u tongue-in-cheek or is there method to the madness?

lescor · Oct 15, 2003

I believe it's called "buy the rumor, sell the news"

onewaypockets · Oct 16, 2003

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

After posting blowout results, NFLX is down afterhours, that after dropping over 3 bucks off its intraday high today during RTH. I'm no analyst but I didn't see any flies in their report. They crushed the number and raised sub estimates for the next quarter. Cancellations also decreased. What's not to like here?

You are talking fundementals here....what matters is the NFLX chart started its earnings run two weeks ago and crapped out after gaining something mega like 15 bucks a share. Yesterday there was a big divergence high made. Today NFLX was in free fall and closed on the lows of the day and shows no strength as of right now. It could continue to fall a couple of more bucks or who the hell knows how much before whatever.

Why not buy stocks that are going up, and short those that are going down? Much easier strategy IMHO. What's not to like here? The stock is going down.

BlueHorseshoe · Oct 16, 2003

Quote from onewaypockets:

You are talking fundementals here....what matters is the NFLX chart started its earnings run two weeks ago and crapped out after gaining something mega like 15 bucks a share. Yesterday there was a big divergence high made. Today NFLX was in free fall and closed on the lows of the day and shows no strength as of right now. It could continue to fall a couple of more bucks or who the hell knows how much before whatever.

Why not buy stocks that are going up, and short those that are going down? Much easier strategy IMHO. What's not to like here? The stock is going down.

It has been going down for one day. Otherwise the medium and LT trend is clearly up. If you trend follow based on one day's action well, more power to you.

onewaypockets · Oct 16, 2003

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

It has been going down for one day. Otherwise the medium and LT trend is clearly up. If you trend follow based on one day's action well, more power to you.

I don't trade medium or long term. My longest trade ever was 9 days. Take a look at the RSI or RSX divergence and trendlines on a 120 minute chart. They all point to down since mid day 10-14. That would have been the best time to take profits of the last 2 weeks....

If you trade LT, more power to you I guess. Good way to leave lots on the table.

dcunited · Oct 16, 2003

until it breaks 40, the uptrend is still intact, no need to panic...yet.

AAAintheBeltway · Oct 16, 2003

Well, everyone had a chance to offer some comments. Actually, I agree with some of the negative comments. The stock had a run but sold off ugly yesterday. Normally I wouldn't touch that kind of action with a barge pole, but the report was so good and it had shot higher previously on some good numbers, that I thought it could reverse.

When I posted the alert last night, it was down to 43.5 or thereabouts as I recall, high so far today was 49.92. Move over MrMarket!!!!!