NFL 2011 Spread betting thread.

M

Max E.

2011 season is finally here, and after the chance that we might have had a lockout, im more excited for football than i have been in a long time.

Please place your bets against the spread along with some analysis, and we can see who does the best over the course of the season. Im hoping AAAintheBeltway will have more time this year to participate, as i always enjoy his commentary.

What a start it was to the season, with the GB, New Orleans game, who would have thought we would actually see a kickoff return for a touchdown in the first game of the season after the new rule changes. Aaron Rodgers didnt look to have any Super Bowl hangover, and Green Bay could be downright scary this season with a healthy team.


Here is the point spreads for this week.

Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
9/11 1:00 ET At Baltimore -1.5 Pittsburgh
9/11 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1.5 Detroit
9/11 1:00 ET Atlanta -2.5 At Chicago
9/11 1:00 ET At Kansas City -6 Buffalo
9/11 1:00 ET At Houston -8.5 Indianapolis
9/11 1:00 ET Philadelphia -4 At St. Louis
9/11 1:00 ET At Cleveland -6.5 Cincinnati
9/11 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -2 Tennessee
9/11 4:15 ET NY Giants -3 At Washington
9/11 4:15 ET At Arizona -7 Carolina
9/11 4:15 ET At San Francisco -5.5 Seattle
9/11 4:15 ET At San Diego -8.5 Minnesota
9/11 8:25 ET At NY Jets -5 Dallas

Monday Night Football Point Spread
9/12 7:00 ET New England -6.5 At Miami
9/12 10:15 ET At Denver -3 Oakland

Three picks for this week.

First I like the Ravens -1.5 to beat the Steelers at home. Betting against my beloved Steelers in week 1 as I really think that Baltimore is going to come out guns blazing to start the season. I am sure they are still sour from the monster lead they blew last year at half time in the playoffs. Flacco has been taking heat all offseason from the commentators, and i really think that he will come out with some extra motivation in this game to prove his naysayers wrong.

Pick: Ravens -1.5

I also like Houston to blow out Indianapolis at home this week. Second pick is Houston -8.5 at home. I dont normally like betting on blowouts in week 1, as it is basically like a playoff game with the teams having an entire offseason to prepare for each other, but With Peyton going down for what now looks to be a large part of the season, i would expect Indy's sails to be deflated. They know they can not win without Peyton. Plus Kerry Collins has not had long enough to properly learn the offense and get to know his players. Houston has been expected to be competitive with Indy for the last couple seasons, and it has been a big disappointment for them, with Peyton going down im hoping Houston smells blood in the water, and sees this as their opportunity to have a break out season.

Pick Houston -8.5

My third pick is Philadelphia -4 over St. Louis. I think St. Louis has gotten alot of hype from the media, and i just do not see them competing in this game. Bradford is going to be throwing at 3 of the best corners in the game. Philadelphia has this "Dream Team" logo on them which Vince Young gave them, and the media blew out of proportion, so i would be very surprised if Andy Reid let them to come out with a flop in week 1. St, Louis is also indoors so the eagles have a huge advantage playing on fast turf with Receivers like Jackson, and Maclin, and Vick at QB.

Pick Philadelphia -4

So to sum it all up my three picks for the week are.

Ravens -1.5
Houston-8.5
Philadelphia -4

Good luck to everyone in the 2011 season, and please include some commentary with your picks.


Place your bets!
 
I really appreciate the kind words, but I just am not going to be able to devote the necessary time to analyze games this season.

I will say I find the first week's games to be pretty tough. Nothing jumps out at me. I totally get the idea that Indy could get blown out, but I am just not that sure about Houston. They are making a major defensive change, and that doesn't always go down smoothly. Certainly it could be a game that tells us what Indy has without peyton.

I see the Ravens-Pittsburg matchup as a toss up basically. One that could be decided by one play or one call. Too tough for me.

I would love to go against Carolina, Cincy, Jacksonville and probably Seattle and Washingron on the grounds of rookie or journey men QBs, whcih usually spells disaster in the NFL. I don't really see a lot in the spreads however.

The first game was great. Let's hope the rest of week one is as exciting.
 
I was thinking about betting against Carolina, and taking Arizona -7, but Kolb still hasn't really proven himself yet, and his play is sporadic, i could see the game ending 10-7 or something like that if Kolb has a shitty game.

I also liked New England -6.5 but i still cant get a feel for them yet, and i Also like the Giants -3, infact I am going to throw money on the Giants -3, and add it to my list.

So I have:
Ravens -1.5
Houston-8.5
Eagles -4
Giants -3

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I really appreciate the kind words, but I just am not going to be able to devote the necessary time to analyze games this season.

I will say I find the first week's games to be pretty tough. Nothing jumps out at me. I totally get the idea that Indy could get blown out, but I am just not that sure about Houston. They are making a major defensive change, and that doesn't always go down smoothly. Certainly it could be a game that tells us what Indy has without peyton.

I see the Ravens-Pittsburg matchup as a toss up basically. One that could be decided by one play or one call. Too tough for me.

I would love to go against Carolina, Cincy, Jacksonville and probably Seattle and Washingron on the grounds of rookie or journey men QBs, whcih usually spells disaster in the NFL. I don't really see a lot in the spreads however.

The first game was great. Let's hope the rest of week one is as exciting.
More...
 
Browns v. Bengals is going to look so easy after the fact imo. One team is going to do well and I think/hope it's my Browns. If our OL can protect Colt, I think we can spread the ball out in the new WCO. Keep an eye on the Browns if this WCO fits Colt (which is what we are hearing). We're stacked at TE, so I would expect to see plenty of TE sets with quick passes w/ the occasional stretch the field pass to MoMass, Robo or Little. Little may end being our best pick this draft if he can catch the ball consistently.

BTW, why is there so much talk about NFL WR's and whether they can catch the ball? Never understood that -- at this level, shouldn't catching be the easy part? But it's not... had same issue here with Braylon - big size and speed, but catching the ball was rather difficult for him. These NFL GM's really fall in love with size and speed it seems and put catching behind those. I just always laugh when catching is part of the problem for a NFL WR.
 
After last season i have a new rule to never bet on games involving the Browns. They have serious Jekyll and Hyde syndrome. One week they look like dogshit, then the next week they look like superbowl contenders and blow out New England. That game cost me 400 bucks, because I had won every game and it blew my whole ticket. They did that to me all season last year. If i bet for them, they got smoked, if i bet against them, they lit it up.

Quote from brownsfan019:

Browns v. Bengals is going to look so easy after the fact imo. One team is going to do well and I think/hope it's my Browns. If our OL can protect Colt, I think we can spread the ball out in the new WCO. Keep an eye on the Browns if this WCO fits Colt (which is what we are hearing). We're stacked at TE, so I would expect to see plenty of TE sets with quick passes w/ the occasional stretch the field pass to MoMass, Robo or Little. Little may end being our best pick this draft if he can catch the ball consistently.
More...
 
Quote from Max E. Pad:

After last season i have a new rule to never bet on games involving the Browns. They have serious Jekyll and Hyde syndrome. One week they look like dogshit, then the next week they look like superbowl contenders and blow out New England. That game cost me 400 bucks, because I had won every game and it blew my whole ticket. They did that to me all season last year. If i bet for them, they got smoked, if i bet against them, they lit it up.
More...

:D

Yep, sounds about right. Never know which team is going to show up. Hopefully we can get more consistent this year w/ the WCO.
 
Quote from Max E. Pad:

I was thinking about betting against Carolina, and taking Arizona -7, but Kolb still hasn't really proven himself yet, and his play is sporadic, i could see the game ending 10-7 or something like that if Kolb has a shitty game.

I also liked New England -6.5 but i still cant get a feel for them yet, and i Also like the Giants -3, infact I am going to throw money on the Giants -3, and add it to my list.

So I have:
Ravens -1.5
Houston-8.5
Eagles -4
Giants -3
More...

Pretty good start. I guess Indy answered the question what they have without peyton, nothing.

Ravens really surprised me. They totally dominated Pittsburg.

The Bears surprised atlanta.

Eagles had a tougher game than they probably were expecting.

I tunred off last night's game with Cowboys sitting on what i thought was a comfortable lead. Guess not. Did anyone see that blindside block Plaxico put on the dallas corner? It was just a total cheap shot. I was hoping one of the Cowboys would get a chance to light him up later. He did play an amazing game for someone who just got out of prison.
 
Went 2 for 4 in week 1. PHI and CHI were my winners, PIT and NYG the losers.

Philly looking good but Vick is risky business. Definitely disappointed in the showing by the Steelers. And how about Brady? Lights out. Thanks for comin' out, AFC East...
 
Quote from Kassz007:

Went 2 for 4 in week 1. PHI and CHI were my winners, PIT and NYG the losers.

Philly looking good but Vick is risky business. Definitely disappointed in the showing by the Steelers. And how about Brady? Lights out. Thanks for comin' out, AFC East...
More...

My jaw was on the floor watching the Ravens decimate the Steelers. The Steeler's age is really starting to show now. The Ravens were blowing them off the ball. Can never really count the Steelers "out" though, they might come around for something fantastic.

Wasn't a fan of Vick, liked him even less after the NFL allowed him back in. He has yet to play a full 16 game season because he always gets hurt. We'll see what goes on this year. Last year, he looked like he had calmed down some and hung in the pocket, but still had his ribs smashed at the goal line.

Brady is ridiculous of course, no questions there.
 
Decent first week went 3-1, will upopdate week 2 picks right away.

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
9/18 1:00 ET At New Orleans -6.5 Chicago
9/18 1:00 ET At Detroit -8 Kansas City
9/18 1:00 ET At NY Jets -9 Jacksonville
9/18 1:00 ET At Buffalo -4 Oakland
9/18 1:00 ET At Washington -3.5 Arizona
9/18 1:00 ET Baltimore -6 At Tennessee
9/18 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -14 Seattle
9/18 1:00 ET Green Bay -10 At Carolina
9/18 1:00 ET At Minnesota -2.5 Tampa Bay
9/18 1:00 ET Cleveland -2 At Indianapolis
9/18 4:05 ET Dallas -3 At San Francisco
9/18 4:15 ET Houston -3 At Miami
9/18 4:15 ET At New England -7 San Diego
9/18 4:15 ET At Denver -3.5 Cincinnati
9/18 8:25 ET Philadelphia -2.5 At Atlanta

Monday Night Football Line
9/19 8:35 ET At NY Giants -6.5 St. Louis
 
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