Next Trade

[longandshort]

I primarily trade price action and observe a few key areas for potential entries (e.g., O/N high/low, prior day high/low, gap, etc.).

So if you look at candle by candle returns, what is the size of the opportunity? Like could you make 0.20%? What is the probability of success dictated by your strategy?

A good way to do this is to download ohlc data (for whatever period you trade) and then calculate average returns, the range of returns (max, min), and conduct a subsequent returns analysis. Price is a lagging indicator. I'd recommend building a theory that explains why the opportunity for someone trading in and out of a contract is available in the first place (as opposed to buying and holding through your period).

 

[next]

Going into tomorrow, this is my current observation. Price has broken its bull flag (yellow) as well as 50SMA. This to me is short-term bearish. Three scenarios that I am watching for:

1) Price bounce from the green rising trendline (relief rally).
2) Price consolidates in current range as market participants digest the sell-off.
3) Price continues selling off into the 200SMA which marks ABCD completion and testing of the cyan channel.

Given the upcoming monstrous earnings and election, volatility is expected so will have to proceed carefully.

 

[SunTrader]

Yes that is correct, I only trade during RTH sessions.

Agreed on trades 2 to 4. I should be happy and be done after trade 1, but sometimes when I see set ups, I have to take it so long as it falls within my trading rules and guidelines.

RTH's are 8:30 am to 3:15 pm Chicago time.

So unless your chart is offset to your time zone, which you haven't mentioned, you are not referring to correct RTH's.

Also curious why you choose to jump right into the "big leagues" with ES as a complete novice? Pre-med students don't head straight into brain surgery, if ever at all.

 

[BKR88]

RTH's are 8:30 am to 3:15 pm Chicago time.

So unless your chart is offset to your time zone, which you haven't mentioned, you are not referring to correct RTH's.

Also curious why you choose to jump right into the "big leagues" with ES as a complete novice? Pre-med students don't head straight into brain surgery, if ever at all.

1- His dark area is correct for RTHs.
2- Trading MES, not ES. Futures trading to avoid PDT rules.

 

[SunTrader]

1- His dark area is correct for RTHs.
2- Trading MES, not ES. Futures trading to avoid PDT rules.

1) Now I see but offset by 2 hours, like I said don't think he mentioned that though I might be mistaken?
2) MES ES same difference.

 

[next]

1) Now I see but offset by 2 hours, like I said don't think he mentioned that though I might be mistaken?
2) MES ES same difference.

1) Yes my time zone is pacific time.
2) I don't think there is a difference in instrument of choice and what is considered "big league". I'm not sure which instrument can be even considered beginner friendly with that thought. I believe the key here is risk, and I have kept it minimal by trading micro with 1 contract to hone my skill.

 

[SunTrader]

1) Yes my time zone is pacific time.
2) I don't think there is a difference in instrument of choice and what is considered "big league". I'm not sure which instrument can be even considered beginner friendly with that thought. I believe the key here is risk, and I have kept it minimal by trading micro with 1 contract to hone my skill.

2) at some point you will see ... my point. Or not. Good luck either way.

 

[next]

2) at some point you will see ... my point. Or not. Good luck either way.

Is there a different instrument of choice you would recommend?

 

[next]

We had a classic look and below and failed on the O/N low this morning that sparked a bullish opportunity. I was able to get a nice +10pt out of it. So far it is looking to be a bullish day if we can reclaim over 3300 with strength. Internals are also picking up.