Quote from easyrider:
I wish somebody would take the time to go back through all the threads and track all the predictions and how they turned out. I have a hunch it would come out right at 50/50.[/QUOTE
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Might make 50/50 in a bear market;
but probably not anywhere near that high in this bull market.
And 1120 S& P 500=$112 SPY ,to guess/''predict'' a next target low os 112 SPY is strange indeed ; hasnt made that low all year, may want to refigure that one again.
Almost 10% down as next low;
dont think so???????
Next Target for S&P500 --> 1120,00
- Thread starter chapabranca
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And even when it does correct, the overwhelming trends on SPY/SPX are all up, unlike DIA & GE which ARE SIDEWAYS or down ;
And even using your chart ,several levels like 115 on SPY
come before 112. May want to refigure that.
And even using your chart ,several levels like 115 on SPY
come before 112.
May want to refigure that.i agree with you that you have to see EWT in larger trends, because this theory is not so "accurate". So indeed 10 or 20 points wrong is not a big deal in EWT.
But i always think: why take 10 or 20 points temporary losses if you can make 15 points in the same time with the same energy? Thats' a difference of 25 to 40 points in return.
When i' posted my opinion we were at approx 1196 so now up more or less 25 points. I would NEVER in any circumstance accept a loss of more than 20 points.
And who told you i took that position? I said that i would trade more on the sell side because of my count. Im a day trader and sometimes take some larger positions on ES. But most of my trades occur during the day. I use the larger count just to have a bigger view of the entire market. It helps me a lot. I started this thread just to share my view of the moment we are. Very simple.
Chapa!
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Spike500
1] Another thing about the unclear system deal, watch this;
kept a neat little post card
elliotwave.com
sent me in 2003,with question,''What is the job of a bear market rally''
2] Seems to be an amazing wave consistancy of being years, weeks or days early;
so for people that like to prepare years , weeks ,days early,
they seem to be consistant /early help.
3]And think the Dad in charge named his kid ''Elliot Waverly'' or something similiar;
and actually like to prepare early, rather than late.
Quote from chapabranca:
And who told you i took that position? I said that i would trade more on the sell side because of my count. Im a day trader and sometimes take some larger positions on ES. But most of my trades occur during the day. I use the larger count just to have a bigger view of the entire market. It helps me a lot. I started this thread just to share my view of the moment we are. Very simple.
Chapa!
I know that many people use EWT but i always try to think logically and than there are things i don't understand. I will explain what i mean:
between the moment you posted and today we went up between 10 and 20 points. This means that the netto moves up were 10 to 20 points bigger than the netto moves downwards, because otherwise we couldn't end up higher. Or in other words, more profit could be made by always going long instead of always going short. And as the trend was clearly long, the risk/reward would have been much better.
So in the period mentioned above EWT did just the opposite of what you had to do; but i is very well possible that you made profitable trades. These trade surely had a worse risk/reward ratio, and that's very important, to me at least.
I don't discuss to impose my point of view, i always try to learn from others. I can be wrong, but EWT is to me at least, useles. It is very well possible that the problem lies with me.
Me to, I got a buy signal right at the very low too WOW!
See my AMAZING trading system, catches every swing.
Well here is my original posting from april 19 where i made the prediction about the bottom and the move up. unfortunately it's in dutch, but there are ET members from my country who can translate the text if you wish. Can you show your posting from a few weeks ago where you made the same prediction? If you wish to have the link to the posting, no problem because the posting is still on the internet, as well as the one from 2 weeks ago when i said we would go higher for at least two weeks.
You are what we call a "afgunstige sukkelaar".
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