Next Idea to Fix the Economy
- Thread starter shbhanda
- Start date
Hey I got some ideas:
1. How 'bout we implement something like this: www.fairtax.org
(The economy would explode.)
2. Implement term limits. Four years, then you carry
your ass home.
3. Implement a constitutional amendment requiring a
balanced budget.
4. Let's cut the Pentagon budget. We are not the world's
policemen.
5. Implement the death penalty for any public official convicted
of corruption. (This would be carried out by decapitation on
CNN live, during prime time.)
6. Make it a crime for any politician to take money away from
Social Security. (Penalty described in #5 above.)
7. Stop illegal immigration.
1. How 'bout we implement something like this: www.fairtax.org
(The economy would explode.)
2. Implement term limits. Four years, then you carry
your ass home.
3. Implement a constitutional amendment requiring a
balanced budget.
4. Let's cut the Pentagon budget. We are not the world's
policemen.
5. Implement the death penalty for any public official convicted
of corruption. (This would be carried out by decapitation on
CNN live, during prime time.)
6. Make it a crime for any politician to take money away from
Social Security. (Penalty described in #5 above.)
7. Stop illegal immigration.
The U.S. is the largest manufacuring economy in the world...sure we are pissing it away with bad tax policy and bad social policy but we have a lot to piss away. I run a manufacturing company and I can tell you that labor cost is not the whole game.
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Interesting Ed. I have delt with the Private Manufactures and their owners over the last for years. I now deal with Private Manufactures Global along with Freight Forwarders Global. I am in Private Equity for a variety of "Things".
The insight I have from our small manufacturing base(about 30% of the MFs left in this country as compared to a few decades ago) is that labor, as you say, is not the whole game. It is an issue, but most guys I know in the US cut their labor by 10% -40% in 08. They are working at capacity with less employees and their margins are far better. I can say all most all of the US MFs (Private world) have very little plans in hiring this year or next.
Many tell me, its hard to forcast the next quarter, let alone the rest of the year.
Raw Material Cost seem to be at the top of their Agenda. Of course, many tell me that Deflation in Energy and Raw Materials in the short run would ramp up their margins.
Bottom line however, is ORDERS. Very few are seeing them. There were a few Quarters where the US MFs saw orders, however they knew it was inventory building for their clients. However, their margins drop'd because it was on a faster turn around time, which cost them more money on their end...very few pass the cost on.
Keep in mind, I delt with US manufactures from 5 million in gross sales to 500,000 million. I did and do not Deal with PUBLIC COMPANIES at all. As far as Im concern, their books are cooked and their "Profits" are not what they say they are...stock is a majority of their "Assets" and most are over valued.
So, the pulse I got in the US were from Private Manufactures...and the pulse I'm getting now is from World Wide Private Shipping and Manufacturing.
I hear far better results coming out ASIA Tigers, Brazil, India, and some countries like LIBYA in manufacturing. I also hear good things coming from Freight Forwarders in those same regions, including Greece ,out of all places.
As far as I am concern, the US will not pull the rest of the world outa of the dumps. In fact, the rest of the World Will rise faster at a more productive GDP rate. IHMO GDP tomorrow will not only shock but will set the stage for close to 0% growth over the next few quarters into 2011.
Consumers lack of purchase power in the US will hurt the US more than they will China, Brazil, India, etc. On a overall % bases, the rest of the world has far more consumers than what America Has.
What will put the nail in the coff'n for many US manufactures will be the Trade War, via Tariffs if the Obama Admin pushes it throught before NOV. If the World decides to back away from Trading with the US...the US will be hurt far more than the rest of the World.
Do not get me wrong, the US a great country. However, much of the world is inching closer to some sort of Capitalistic Model...its not pure capitalism, nor will they get ride of certain socialistic programs.
IMHO, the US will go through more pain, moving away from Free Markets and closer to Socialism, than the Rest of the world, moving in a Ad Hoc style Capitalism mixed in with their Socialism. They have been through the pain for Decades upon Decades.
So, I'm not sure what Manufacturing Firm you Run. But I would lay a boat load of money on the tabel...all chips in...that your company is definitly working on Global Manufacturing ideas if not in the works to move a lot of your Production off shore.
_________________________________________________________
Interesting Ed. I have delt with the Private Manufactures and their owners over the last for years. I now deal with Private Manufactures Global along with Freight Forwarders Global. I am in Private Equity for a variety of "Things".
The insight I have from our small manufacturing base(about 30% of the MFs left in this country as compared to a few decades ago) is that labor, as you say, is not the whole game. It is an issue, but most guys I know in the US cut their labor by 10% -40% in 08. They are working at capacity with less employees and their margins are far better. I can say all most all of the US MFs (Private world) have very little plans in hiring this year or next.
Many tell me, its hard to forcast the next quarter, let alone the rest of the year.
Raw Material Cost seem to be at the top of their Agenda. Of course, many tell me that Deflation in Energy and Raw Materials in the short run would ramp up their margins.
Bottom line however, is ORDERS. Very few are seeing them. There were a few Quarters where the US MFs saw orders, however they knew it was inventory building for their clients. However, their margins drop'd because it was on a faster turn around time, which cost them more money on their end...very few pass the cost on.
Keep in mind, I delt with US manufactures from 5 million in gross sales to 500,000 million. I did and do not Deal with PUBLIC COMPANIES at all. As far as Im concern, their books are cooked and their "Profits" are not what they say they are...stock is a majority of their "Assets" and most are over valued.
So, the pulse I got in the US were from Private Manufactures...and the pulse I'm getting now is from World Wide Private Shipping and Manufacturing.
I hear far better results coming out ASIA Tigers, Brazil, India, and some countries like LIBYA in manufacturing. I also hear good things coming from Freight Forwarders in those same regions, including Greece ,out of all places.
As far as I am concern, the US will not pull the rest of the world outa of the dumps. In fact, the rest of the World Will rise faster at a more productive GDP rate. IHMO GDP tomorrow will not only shock but will set the stage for close to 0% growth over the next few quarters into 2011.
Consumers lack of purchase power in the US will hurt the US more than they will China, Brazil, India, etc. On a overall % bases, the rest of the world has far more consumers than what America Has.
What will put the nail in the coff'n for many US manufactures will be the Trade War, via Tariffs if the Obama Admin pushes it throught before NOV. If the World decides to back away from Trading with the US...the US will be hurt far more than the rest of the World.
Do not get me wrong, the US a great country. However, much of the world is inching closer to some sort of Capitalistic Model...its not pure capitalism, nor will they get ride of certain socialistic programs.
IMHO, the US will go through more pain, moving away from Free Markets and closer to Socialism, than the Rest of the world, moving in a Ad Hoc style Capitalism mixed in with their Socialism. They have been through the pain for Decades upon Decades.
So, I'm not sure what Manufacturing Firm you Run. But I would lay a boat load of money on the tabel...all chips in...that your company is definitly working on Global Manufacturing ideas if not in the works to move a lot of your Production off shore.
oh yea ED, "LIGHTS OUT". Does that terminology ring a bell. I know 4 Key Production Plants, tied to a few different Industries here in the US that run 110,000 sq foot building with massive Manufacturing lines! With only 35 employees, most working on Remote DeskTop at home, with about 5 on site. All engineers with two on site who are Six Sigma.
And you wana here the kicker. One of my guys actually had a OCEIA (SP) visit and was fined anyway...there were no viloations of saftey on the actuall floor, no people on the line to have "Accidents". But they found a 'Cord' that was not proberly secured in the office, it went to the phone...., and no where near the main floor!
"lights out" This is the future of American Idustry.
And you wana here the kicker. One of my guys actually had a OCEIA (SP) visit and was fined anyway...there were no viloations of saftey on the actuall floor, no people on the line to have "Accidents". But they found a 'Cord' that was not proberly secured in the office, it went to the phone...., and no where near the main floor!
"lights out" This is the future of American Idustry.
Six Point Plan
1) lower capital gains tax rate
2) lower dividend tax rate
3) lower marginal income tax rate on bottom 99%
4) raise marginal income tax rate on top 1%
5) lower corporate tax rate
6) introduce VAT tax. Needed to get tax revenues from those who work "off the books".
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Hey, why don't you head over to London, or I should say when was the last time you where there?
Brits had a plan something close to yours....as far as the Marginal Income Tax decrease in the bottom. Then Introduce the VAT tax and it would supplement. BUT GUESS WHAT! No taxes were lower'd and the Brits, and now the EU have a VAT of near 20% Fok'n brilliant Mate! So now, when you buy a home, a beer, or a fucking HOOKER IN HOLLAND....... you pay all taxes plus a nice big VAT tax!
1) lower capital gains tax rate
2) lower dividend tax rate
3) lower marginal income tax rate on bottom 99%
4) raise marginal income tax rate on top 1%
5) lower corporate tax rate
6) introduce VAT tax. Needed to get tax revenues from those who work "off the books".
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Hey, why don't you head over to London, or I should say when was the last time you where there?
Brits had a plan something close to yours....as far as the Marginal Income Tax decrease in the bottom. Then Introduce the VAT tax and it would supplement. BUT GUESS WHAT! No taxes were lower'd and the Brits, and now the EU have a VAT of near 20% Fok'n brilliant Mate! So now, when you buy a home, a beer, or a fucking HOOKER IN HOLLAND....... you pay all taxes plus a nice big VAT tax!
I agree that Clinton did more than just raise taxes. But the fact that raising taxes did not have catastrophic impacts shows the fallacy of thinking tax cuts are the only way to grow the economy. I'd still like you to answer how cutting taxes by 500B, either directly or by reducing tax rates, will generate 2T in taxable economic activity to break even without any added debt.
EMRGlobal, I agree with the sentiments and observations you made about manufacturing in your long post...I don't agree with your six points. I would not favor a raise in the top marginal rate in the U.S. and I would not favor a VAT tax for the reason you alude to...it would just feed government and make it expensive to levy...even though it would be less distortive, once absorbed in the price structure, than income and capital gains taxes.
My company is private, has large back log now with continuing strong order flow and we are trying desperately to hire skilled factory workers. We have visibility through year end at production levels comparable to 2008...we were off about 20% in 2009, 2010 will come in about 10% 2008 and we expect same for 2011...most of our demand is from infrastructure growth outside the U.S....even as we sell to many U.S. customers whose end market is outside U.S...we expect international demand to drop next year as U.S. and E.U. growth slows or turns negative. We have facilities in Mexico City and we just bought a facility in Singapore to serve Asian market. We are adding employees in all facilities...but it is easier to do so in Mexico and Singapore and skills are better there. Long term we will run U.S. operation at level of employment lower that 2007 focused on proprietary products and high value added aviation products, nuclear products with highest quality control requirements. We expect to add facility in Europe and growth from hear on out will be outside the U.S. I was in London twice during the past year; sadly saw hundreds of idle cranes from the top of the eye.
Endsong, I never meant to imply that taxes were the only way to growth the economy...I was pointing out distinctions between Keynesian demand side tax cuts and growth tax cuts. My ideas about growth involve more than tax issues. The impetus to grow itself will overcome wrong headed taxes so long as they don't keep changing all the time. The issue of growth is about promoting production and not focusing on consumption...free trade, smart transparent and fair regulation, stable currency, functioning infrastructure, efficient transportation, cheap energy, clear predictable laws, efficient insurance markets, healthy work culture and employee skills...all contribute to production along with taxes that don't restrict capital formation, work incentive, or risk taking reward of profits.
Skytrader, I don't want to get into your hypothetical math. My original point that you responded to did not advocate a reduction of taxes...my point was that taxes that harm growth should be removed or reduced and taxes that don't harm growth should not be reduced in the name of 'stimulus.' I don't think I advocated a tax policy of points or what ever. My post was asking you to make a distinction between proposals to reduce taxes so that you could tell the Keynesian faux stimulus demand management crap from the taxes that actually impact production and capital formation. I even suggested that the reduction of the taxes that impact growth would lead to near term revenue loss. If you want to learn more about this you could read Laffer's latest book, "The End of Prosperity" or you could read Dimotrovics book, "Econoclasts." Understand that much has been ascribed of Laffer that he did not say or advocate....and much of Art's economic views are nothing I would agree with. Art is very good on government revenue. That is what his job was in the Reagan Administration...he was undersectretary of treasury for revenue.
If I were to suggest a tax policy reform to raise the revenue required to run the U.S. government (it should be smaller but I will budget as is) and not harm prospects for growth it would be something like this:
1. Flat income tax rate of 20%, no deductables except for child and parent dependencies, first 50,000 of income tax free. In time if the government could be made smaller the rate could be reduced.
2. 0 Corporate tax, elimination of Sub S corporation status so that all corps are C corps. All dividends to shareholders from corporations and distributions from LLC's and LLP's taxed at regular flat income tax rate. Current rules promoting C corp payment of dividends on accumualted profits enforced.
3. 10% capital gains tax for all capital gains on the sale of assets held for at least two years. 15% tax for gains on assets held for at least 1 year. Same for all assetts...real estate, coins, businessess, stock, bonds, antique cars, etc.
4. 0 Inheritance tax. Not step up in basis on assets, so gains will be due on sale by hiers.
5. General Tariff of 3% to 5% on all goods without any discrimination imported into the U.S. except for NAFTA treaty agreements. No other tariffs for protection of ethanol, sugar or other goods allowed. Rebate of tariff if import goods are used in manufacture or assembly of export products.
6. Maintain existing excise taxes on utilities, telephone and cable use, airline landing fees, broadcast licenses etc.
7. Federal Gas tax increase of 50 cents per gallon. No tax on diesal fuel.
8. Repeal all special business taxes regarding windfall profits and discontiue all tax subsidies for any goods or services including green energy products. Continue research grants and government loan programs as Congress may wish, but no subsidies for the purchase of any goods...houses, cars, windmills, palm oil robots, etc.
9. Privitization of Social Security...pay off current entitlelment for every one over age 55...give option for those 45 to 55 to stay with current plan or switch to privitised plan on the model used in Chile today. Everyone under 45 goes with the privitization plan.
10. Tax Health Insurance plans as income over $12,000 (inflation adjustment going forward); De-link health insurance from employment...have plans owned by insureds that move with insureds. Allow plans to be sold across state lines. Allow diversity in quality of plans...mandating only true minimum threshold of care. Promote individual health savings accounts. Allow for basic Medicade care to be funded by existing employment taxes and eventually taken Federalized so that it is not burden of State funding.
11. Give all resident aliens opportunity to register for resident working papers so they can leave the underground economy and start paying taxes and insurance. No citizenship for illegals, unless they go through normal immigration channels and complete citizenship requirements. Expand legal immigration so that employers can vouch for need for guest workers, guarantee health insurance and wages are recieve guest worker visas.
You will need eleven because the first 10 changes will create so much inward investment into the U.S. that there will be an immediate labor shortage.
My company is private, has large back log now with continuing strong order flow and we are trying desperately to hire skilled factory workers. We have visibility through year end at production levels comparable to 2008...we were off about 20% in 2009, 2010 will come in about 10% 2008 and we expect same for 2011...most of our demand is from infrastructure growth outside the U.S....even as we sell to many U.S. customers whose end market is outside U.S...we expect international demand to drop next year as U.S. and E.U. growth slows or turns negative. We have facilities in Mexico City and we just bought a facility in Singapore to serve Asian market. We are adding employees in all facilities...but it is easier to do so in Mexico and Singapore and skills are better there. Long term we will run U.S. operation at level of employment lower that 2007 focused on proprietary products and high value added aviation products, nuclear products with highest quality control requirements. We expect to add facility in Europe and growth from hear on out will be outside the U.S. I was in London twice during the past year; sadly saw hundreds of idle cranes from the top of the eye.
Endsong, I never meant to imply that taxes were the only way to growth the economy...I was pointing out distinctions between Keynesian demand side tax cuts and growth tax cuts. My ideas about growth involve more than tax issues. The impetus to grow itself will overcome wrong headed taxes so long as they don't keep changing all the time. The issue of growth is about promoting production and not focusing on consumption...free trade, smart transparent and fair regulation, stable currency, functioning infrastructure, efficient transportation, cheap energy, clear predictable laws, efficient insurance markets, healthy work culture and employee skills...all contribute to production along with taxes that don't restrict capital formation, work incentive, or risk taking reward of profits.
Skytrader, I don't want to get into your hypothetical math. My original point that you responded to did not advocate a reduction of taxes...my point was that taxes that harm growth should be removed or reduced and taxes that don't harm growth should not be reduced in the name of 'stimulus.' I don't think I advocated a tax policy of points or what ever. My post was asking you to make a distinction between proposals to reduce taxes so that you could tell the Keynesian faux stimulus demand management crap from the taxes that actually impact production and capital formation. I even suggested that the reduction of the taxes that impact growth would lead to near term revenue loss. If you want to learn more about this you could read Laffer's latest book, "The End of Prosperity" or you could read Dimotrovics book, "Econoclasts." Understand that much has been ascribed of Laffer that he did not say or advocate....and much of Art's economic views are nothing I would agree with. Art is very good on government revenue. That is what his job was in the Reagan Administration...he was undersectretary of treasury for revenue.
If I were to suggest a tax policy reform to raise the revenue required to run the U.S. government (it should be smaller but I will budget as is) and not harm prospects for growth it would be something like this:
1. Flat income tax rate of 20%, no deductables except for child and parent dependencies, first 50,000 of income tax free. In time if the government could be made smaller the rate could be reduced.
2. 0 Corporate tax, elimination of Sub S corporation status so that all corps are C corps. All dividends to shareholders from corporations and distributions from LLC's and LLP's taxed at regular flat income tax rate. Current rules promoting C corp payment of dividends on accumualted profits enforced.
3. 10% capital gains tax for all capital gains on the sale of assets held for at least two years. 15% tax for gains on assets held for at least 1 year. Same for all assetts...real estate, coins, businessess, stock, bonds, antique cars, etc.
4. 0 Inheritance tax. Not step up in basis on assets, so gains will be due on sale by hiers.
5. General Tariff of 3% to 5% on all goods without any discrimination imported into the U.S. except for NAFTA treaty agreements. No other tariffs for protection of ethanol, sugar or other goods allowed. Rebate of tariff if import goods are used in manufacture or assembly of export products.
6. Maintain existing excise taxes on utilities, telephone and cable use, airline landing fees, broadcast licenses etc.
7. Federal Gas tax increase of 50 cents per gallon. No tax on diesal fuel.
8. Repeal all special business taxes regarding windfall profits and discontiue all tax subsidies for any goods or services including green energy products. Continue research grants and government loan programs as Congress may wish, but no subsidies for the purchase of any goods...houses, cars, windmills, palm oil robots, etc.
9. Privitization of Social Security...pay off current entitlelment for every one over age 55...give option for those 45 to 55 to stay with current plan or switch to privitised plan on the model used in Chile today. Everyone under 45 goes with the privitization plan.
10. Tax Health Insurance plans as income over $12,000 (inflation adjustment going forward); De-link health insurance from employment...have plans owned by insureds that move with insureds. Allow plans to be sold across state lines. Allow diversity in quality of plans...mandating only true minimum threshold of care. Promote individual health savings accounts. Allow for basic Medicade care to be funded by existing employment taxes and eventually taken Federalized so that it is not burden of State funding.
11. Give all resident aliens opportunity to register for resident working papers so they can leave the underground economy and start paying taxes and insurance. No citizenship for illegals, unless they go through normal immigration channels and complete citizenship requirements. Expand legal immigration so that employers can vouch for need for guest workers, guarantee health insurance and wages are recieve guest worker visas.
You will need eleven because the first 10 changes will create so much inward investment into the U.S. that there will be an immediate labor shortage.
you f-in retard. why don't you think a little before you keep spitting paragraphs that have no real point.
if a factory knows that if gdp is 3% its taxes will be at 30%, 2% at 20, and 1% at 10, do you think they will be confident in this system or afraid of the "drastic government intervention," you dipshit. You ask factories in the states right now how confident and worried they are, its not only because of high taxes, which have been high for awhile mind you, its because we are looking at potential depression. a "flexible counter cyclical tax policy" would drastically alleviate fears of depression and thus do a lot to thwart it.
Why do you think you are smart? Let's hear your best idea in under two sentences. My guess is you would spend all day at your keyboard and not have one.
The completely free market will kill the world economy because it will need less and less human capital. THIS IS THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM OF 21st CENTURY ECONOMICS. Believe it or not, the only answer is intelligent, efficient socialism. now, let's hear an idea of yours that doesn't just have to do with "letting things be."
We need to SLASH tax rates AND spending... ALL TYPES OF SPENDING. Too much has been undeservedly given and promised to too many and it must be cut back. Otherwise, we will ALL soon have nothing. (When the goose that lays the eggs is killed for supper, soon thereafter nobody eats.)
In a sense, Obama's words were correct... about the need/desire for Fundamental Transformation (funny, that's about the only think I can think of where he didn't lie.. must have been an accident. Anyway...) Unfortunate his plan is 180 degrees off of what we NEED.