Next financial center: shanghai?

When China decides that it is time for Shanghai to eclipse HK they will simply level the playing field enough that what will then be the city that eclipsed New York will emerge as the leading financial center of the 21st century.

I don't think most people realize that Shanghai already has twice the number of skyscrapers that New York has. If anyone would have told me when i was a kid that there would be a city that would build twice the number of skyscrapers as my hometown I would have thought them insane.

Shanghai's new port will soon handle more tonnage than ALL the ports in the US put together. The scale on which the Chinese are building in Shanghai was unimaginable 20 years ago. They clearly intend it to be their business/commercial showcase and are very unlikely to leave a huge scale financial center out of the mix. It is conceivable that in 30 or 40 years Shanghai will be a larger financial center than New York and London combined.

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

No, HK's advantage is low tax, light regulation, stable rule of law, relatively low corruption, and friendly government policies to international capital. Shanghai is unlikely to ever have all those factors and currently doesn't even have one of them.
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Quote from traderzhangSan:



I agree that China communist govt is very bad and I dislike them too. But you are damn wrong to say they are with a paranoid 1950s mentality.You lack of understang of china is either ignorant or misinformed
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My "lack of understanding " is based on opinions from Mainland Chinese, some still living there and some who have emigrated. Sorry, but you don't have to live there to form an opinion.

Have you ever heard of what the government did to the intellectuals year ago? One friend of mine spent 10 years working in the coal mines, and left with his family when he could, on an education visa. His problem? He had an MS in computer science and was seeking a Ph.D. He said the government has not changed much from this mentality, they just added captialism to the mix when they reali

Remember Tianmen? I have been there. The govt has not changed much since this. Ever heard of the Falun gong? Taiwan? Tibet? In many ways, the Chinese govt resembles Iran.

When one sees how tightly the govt still controls Chinese society, then I am afraid the lack of understanding is on your part.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

No, HK's advantage is low tax, light regulation, stable rule of law, relatively low corruption, and friendly government policies to international capital. Shanghai is unlikely to ever have all those factors and currently doesn't even have one of them.
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I would agree vis-a-vis rule of law and corruption. But frankly, I believe China will be highly professional in managing its financial industry, and both of these will develop.

What are relative levels of taxation and regulation in London and New York, versus say the Bermudas? Which of these are the true "financial" capitals?

Truth is, financial institutions and industries will go where the capital is, period. It's really that simple. This is why many commodity firms are run out of Chicago, while others (energy related) runs out of Texas.

How large will Chinese mutual funds be, in 20 years? How large will Chinese pension funds be, in 20 years? How much in equity/debt financing will Chinese enterprises, both public and private, require in 20 years? There will be huge capital needs in China, and the idea that the resulting capital markets will be offshored from Shanghai is difficult for me to imagine.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

It will probably become a big regional financial center, but not a world one. The simple reason is it is an unfree country. How are you going to attract world class staff to a 3rd world dictatorship, that's the problem. Hong Kong has a better position there IMO.
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Hong Kong and Singapore are "free"? Really?

How have both territories attracted world-class staff for the last 30 years, without holding true multi-party elections for government? Money. Talent will follow the money, even if it means they can't vote for their governor (or even spit in the streets).
 
I am sorry about your friend's story and that you cannot live past the 89 brutal government crackdown on student protests. But truth is we are all here for money and opportunities. You think US is any better? you must be blind if you didn't see how elite groups of this country rip us off and best of all everything is legal. Obama is fvcking middle class hard and in a decade there will be only super rich and dirt poor people in united states.






Quote from TraderZones:

My "lack of understanding " is based on opinions from Mainland Chinese, some still living there and some who have emigrated. Sorry, but you don't have to live there to form an opinion.

Have you ever heard of what the government did to the intellectuals year ago? One friend of mine spent 10 years working in the coal mines, and left with his family when he could, on an education visa. His problem? He had an MS in computer science and was seeking a Ph.D. He said the government has not changed much from this mentality, they just added captialism to the mix when they reali

Remember Tianmen? I have been there. The govt has not changed much since this. Ever heard of the Falun gong? Taiwan? Tibet? In many ways, the Chinese govt resembles Iran.

When one sees how tightly the govt still controls Chinese society, then I am afraid the lack of understanding is on your part.
More...
 
Quote from traderzhangSan:

I am sorry about your friend's story

What has changed, seriously? The govt opened up to capitalism and economic development; nothing else is different, they still have major need to control everything.

and that you cannot live past the 89 brutal government crackdown on student protests.

What has changed, seriously? The govt opened up to capitalism and economic development; nothing else is different, they still have major need to control everything.

But truth is we are all here for money and opportunities.

That has nothing to do with the post

You think US is any better? you must be blind if you didn't see how elite groups of this country rip us off and best of all everything is legal. Obama is fvcking middle class hard and in a decade there will be only super rich and dirt poor people in united states.

You are disproving something by trying to focus on something else? Who said I lived in the USA? There are approx 230 countries in the world.

You said I had a lack of understanding. When I responded, you started obfuscating...
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Quote from TraderZones:
What has changed, seriously? The govt opened up to capitalism and economic development; nothing else is different, they still have major need to control everything.
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That would be an extremely long conversation, and probably not a fruitful one.

But let's simplify it this way: find someone from mainland China who remembers 1989 and also understands 2010, and ask them whether China has changed.
 
China is the perfect Corporate State. Guys are put in charge that you have no say over and you have to toe the line - just like Corporations.
All those casinos in Singapore and Macau are financed with money ruling elites steal from citizens so they can go gamble. Again, very similar to (some) Corporations.
Plenty of protests in China too - tens of thousands - but they are censored - like a corporation censoring or trying to mitigate bad press it gets when crap hits the fan and people find out what they are up to.
Shanghai can't be trusted any more than Wall St. because the goal is the same.
 
you might be surprised but actually the people control the chinese govt, they want this govt as it has provided for them, if it budged on taiwan/tibet or they had a lower standard of living, the chinese pple would throw them out in a jiffy, the presence of elections is not necessarily a good indicator of a governemnt's responsiveness to its people.
 
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