Next financial center: shanghai?

[heech]

Quote from not4kids:

. Unfortunately, China just started its futures market, has a very small debt market, and is still experimenting with its commodity market.

Not true. The major Chinese commodity exchanges have been around for almost 20 years. Volumes in major international commodities (like soybean) is huge, and matches the CME. Index futures are new, and derivatives are new... that's certainly true.

But let's make sure we understand one thing: the debate in the US over financial reform is whether it's even needed. There are numerous stake holders in the US who will move mountains in order to obstruct any further reforms from the current system.

In contrast, there's not a single market regulator/participant in China who isn't working towards constant reform, and introduction of all of the financial tools available in the west. So, when we're talking 20-30 years in the future... how can you not be optimistic?

 

[not4kids]

Quote from heech:

but simply because China will redefine what the market is. [/B]

I like this sentence. China will redefine what the market is and that market will be called a market in Chinese characteristics (i.e., a market full of corruption).

 

[not4kids]

Quote from heech:

Not true. The major Chinese commodity exchanges have been around for almost 20 years. Volumes in major international commodities (like soybean) is huge, and matches the CME. Index futures are new, and derivatives are new... that's certainly true.

But let's make sure we understand one thing: the debate in the US over financial reform is whether it's even needed. There are numerous stake holders in the US who will move mountains in order to obstruct any further reforms from the current system.

In contrast, there's not a single market regulator/participant in China who isn't working towards constant reform, and introduction of all of the financial tools available in the west. So, when we're talking 20-30 years in the future... how can you not be optimistic?

If you trade stocks, you will not believe anything beyond 20 years. 1 year is called long term, 5 years is the infinity, anything beyond 5 years is just for imagination. When people start to be optimistic about things 20-30 years in the future, this is called the beginning of a bubble.

 

[heech]

Quote from not4kids:

If you trade stocks, you will not believe anything beyond 20 years. 1 year is called long term, 5 years is the infinity, anything beyond 5 years is just for imagination. When people start to be optimistic about things 20-30 years in the future, this is called the beginning of a bubble.

One of us is in the the wrong thread. I didn't notice there being a lot of "stock trading" tips being tossed around.

A thread discussing the "next financial center" has nothing to do with trading stocks, and certainly requires an imagination that extends beyond the next 5 years. And no, I don't think informed, optimistic evaluation of a country's economic prospects is equivalent to "the beginning of a bubble". But maybe you can argue with Warren Buffet about that.

 

[Copernicus]

Quote from traderzhangSan:

I am sure that US will emerge stronger from current financial crisis.

But what if American people are fed up with Wall street bankers, trading ,hedge fund and all that finance activities(which don't add much real value to the society)? It is even possible that some day Goldman Sachs will relocate to Shanghai as its headquarter?

it might be unthinkable today. But remember 3 years ago, nobody would imagine that WS was facing the danger of total collapse.They were masters of universe ,the best and brightest, the best of the best, how could they do wrong?

And I also think Jewish people find shanghai is a very attractive place. Historically there were many successful Jewish bankers in shanghai. one time before Communist took over China, over 30% shanghai stock exchange seats were taken by jews. The only problem is that Jews don't like communist ideology. But that is not a real problem at all. Today's China is a total capitalism country on the contrary to many believe. And China is more open to outsider than many might believe.

if this happens, the world will see the greatest wealth transfer ever in history.

No convertible currency, and no stock index futures yet in Shanghai.

Hong Kong combined with Shenzhen will remain #1 in my opinion.
Singapore has no shot, it will always be a nice place to live, but no way it will ever rival Hong Kong or Shanghai.

 

[traderzhangSan]

Quote from not4kids:

True, things could change. So could US markets. It is also true that there are more in financial market than stock trading. US has the most liquid futures/commodity markets and the most liquid debt markets, and the most liquid derivatives (such as CDS, interest swaps, etc) markets. Unfortunately, China just started its futures market, has a very small debt market, and is still experimenting with its commodity market. The derivative markets in China is not even on schedule yet. For China to replace US as world financial market center, you need two conditions: China has to do things right and US has to screw up. Unfortunately, China did not do right things. Chinese government wants everything under control and dislikes anything beyond its control. I don't think Chinese government truly believes free markets will work.

Come on, China must have done something right in the past 30 years, otherwise there wouldn't be any rapid economic development. I don't believe US will screw up. However Shanghai being a financial center is not at expense of NYC. The world might well need three big financial centers:london, NYC and Shanghai

 

[traderzhangSan]

Quote from Copernicus:

No convertible currency, and no stock index futures yet in Shanghai.

Hong Kong combined with Shenzhen will remain #1 in my opinion.
Singapore has no shot, it will always be a nice place to live, but no way it will ever rival Hong Kong or Shanghai.

Singapore is a nice place to live?
What you are talking about? have you been there? it is freaking hot in summer. it is very small and it is a terrible place to live.

 

[heech]

Quote from Copernicus:

No convertible currency, and no stock index futures yet in Shanghai.

Hong Kong combined with Shenzhen will remain #1 in my opinion.
Singapore has no shot, it will always be a nice place to live, but no way it will ever rival Hong Kong or Shanghai.

I think Hong Kong's relevance will drop quickly. It's primary advantage right now is that the Chinese capital markets aren't fully open, but that advantage will fade with time.

Stock index futures trading starts next month, in Shanghai.

 

[MohdSalleh]

Quote from traderzhangSan:

Singapore is a nice place to live?
What you are talking about? have you been there? it is freaking hot in summer. it is very small and it is a terrible place to live.

shanghai is very hot in summer too, and singapore is quite clean and safe, wheras shanghai is very chaotic, too many people, and everyone is spitting and shoving

 

[mingsphinx]

Quote from traderzhangSan:

I have nothing against HK. China has a lot to learn from HK in terms of rules and laws, independent court system, modern business practice.
But HK is not in the same system. They have their own currency , they drive on the left and they don't speak mandarin, and the most importantly market size is just too small.

In other words, the Hongkies ain't Chinks! Now is that a good thing or a bad thing?