Obviously the market is somewhat disassociated with the actual economy. Plus it is pretty obvious to me that we have just printed several trillion $ and money is way too cheap. Plus we are basically overdue to a general crash, and I don't think the Covid thing was it. Blip on the radar. What do you guys think? Will 2021 be the new 1929? The vaccine progress is already baked in to prices by now. Once everybody is getting their shots, what next? I am thinking first quarter will be great and second quarter will be time to start going short on the indexes. Any opinions?
Next Crash Scheduled for 2nd Quarter 2021?
- Thread starter GrowleyMonster
- Start date
I don't know if the market will ever crash again since we are in a meltup but there is a massive credit contraction happening/starting e ght now. You can tell by banks beeing long on bonds while short on gold. (COT/Fed data). There are institutions beeing short of liquidity, we will only know next year who it is mainly. On the surface several bubbles, from real estate to bonds and consumer credits nd so on must be on the edge right now. 2021 will be disasterous for sure.
The FED is the market.
Zero interest rates until 2024 and trillions in liquidity at the first sign of a downtick in the markets.
Why fight it?
Zero interest rates until 2024 and trillions in liquidity at the first sign of a downtick in the markets.
Why fight it?
That is all we need to think about. But boy what a rush ... to exit it will be once the day finally comes.
One day in the future, the Great Asset Inflation will come to a halt and certain classes/sectors will suffer a crash / de-rating, which lasts years or decades rather than a few weeks. But that day could itself be years off and a long way up from current levels. Trade accordingly...
And not only that, but small caps at all time highs. Maybe we can get the Chinese to cause a global pandemic every year.