newspaper article are the best contra indicator

Quote from Cutten:

No problem - I believe you have done the trades you said, and I know people who trade contra-trend and do well, so I am not trying to knock your method. I am just interested in your point about the press comment, as obviously I have a position in this market. As most of us know, the press are rarely right about major market moves :D Combine this with the 1998 top, and I am now "on alert" in case the market gives a topping signal in the next week or two.

As for my own experiences, personally I have not traded silver before this move. The silver market was basically dead from 1999 up until summer 2003, and I did not trade commodities much before 1999. But I traded gold for some time, so I am comfortable operating in silver too.
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There have been quite a lot of bullish articles in silver, recently. IMHO last time I noticed such a concentration in bullishness was near the all time high in crude oil last year and all time high in Euro/Dollar this year. As I'm located in Germany I read European newspapers- Financial Times and Handelsblatt. Handelsblatt seems almost always to be deadly wrong near market tops. But just my opionion.
 
I think the contrarian media play is kinda overblown -- how many articles about the new era bull market came out around 96 or so? How many dentists got into daytrading in 98 before the nazzy doubled etc?

Put it this way, whenever a market makes an extraordinary run, the media will want to write about -- so at any given "top", there are bound to be many articles, stories, etc about how great things look. But I'm sure back in 1980 when silver ran from 5 to 50 there were any number of articles on the big silver bull market at 15, 20, 30 etc. It's only when the market finally turns, after the fact, do we say "ah, should have known".

Granted, when the general media starts "assuming" any market will do this or that, it might be time for a bit of a rest. But how many people do you think actually have a futures account and are trading silver minis or buying bullion at their corner silver dealer? And re: Buffett top, I think the market already punished people a few years back for trying to ride his coattails -- second time around should be somewhat different - jmo.

In any case, call me when TIME has a silver eagle on the cover :)
 
Quote from easyguru:

All the recruiting companies have broken to upside with several bearish stories on job scene.
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What are the standard recruiting and placement companies that people use as a proxy to track job creation? Is there an official recruiting/placement index somewhere?
 
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