newspaper article are the best contra indicator

The reason silver is taking a breather here is because all base metals are taking a breather here,and for that matter just about all commodities are.Its profit taking across the board,pure and simple.Since the media has been decidedly bullish over the last year despite valuation problems,and the major indexes keep going up, I dont put much creedance in heilbronners statement.In fairness to him however he is trading and not going long term short.But all the info I'm getting in the blue collar sector,to be more specific,the construction industry and the farming sector,the public will be in for a rude awakening over the next 12 months,when it comes to the prices of commodities.goodluck
 
Keep your eye on the "Buffett top" from early 98, this is around 7.93 spot. A test and then rejection of that level would indicate a pullback is on the cards, and cause me to book profits on most of my position.
 
Speaking of contra indicators,one that seems to be proving itself on a consistent basis is when george say the economy is strong and growing.The first time he said this in the summer of 02 ,two weeks later the fed informed us thet we had been in a recession seven months earlier.If the economy was strong and growing why does he feel the need to continually reassure the public.
 
Quote from heilbronner:

Hey dude, this wasn't a market call. It refers to the fact that newspaper writers are wrong most of the time. Apart, if I make a market call I always give the exact entry in RT and exit in RT, too. If you doubt this check out my old postings, please do it. If you are saying that I don't give info where I got in when I'm doing a market call, you are just a liar. Regarding size I don't have to post which size I'm trading, and IMHO that's not your business either.

Short yesterday@ 7.4650.
Short today@ 7.629.
Covered @ 7.512 and @ 7.427.

I will continue to trade silver from the short side, but I won't make market calls here on ET.
Hope this helps, enjoy yourself.
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Was this cash silver, the COMEX futures contract, or the CBOT mini-future? Also, are you still short and/or trading it from the short side?
 
have you guys forgotten the fundamentals?

- how is silver mined
- what is silver mainly used for

why did Eastman Kodak drop suddenly last year

now that photography no longer really requires silver then the usage of silver becomes for mainly what

one of the biggest users of silver was for x-rays, but no longer

fundamentally - in the long run - at the end of the day it is all supply and demand that drives the prices. in the mean time it may make wild gyrations but the end result will be the same

peace

:cool:
 
Quote from Cutten:

Was this cash silver, the COMEX futures contract, or the CBOT mini-future? Also, are you still short and/or trading it from the short side?
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This was mini future. I'm trading it in and out from the short side. This is no market call posting or something like that. But so far I have been profitable trading it from short side(although there are some critics doubting everything I post here), even though long side would have been easier.

At the moment I'm short @ 7.753. As you are long for some time, congrats, Cutton. I've been also long last summer but I didn't have the patience to keep it until now.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Keep your eye on the "Buffett top" from early 98, this is around 7.93 spot. A test and then rejection of that level would indicate a pullback is on the cards, and cause me to book profits on most of my position.
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Cutten,

I will keep your mentioned top in mind. How many years have you been trading Silver? Are there any books out that only refer to silver trading?

Thankful for any hint.

Cheers.
 
I have great respect for Bernie Schaeffer as he discloses his portfolio and has made 50% in 2003. He likes silver and so do I
 
Quote from heilbronner:

This was mini future. I'm trading it in and out from the short side. This is no market call posting or something like that. But so far I have been profitable trading it from short side(although there are some critics doubting everything I post here), even though long side would have been easier.

At the moment I'm short @ 7.753.
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No problem - I believe you have done the trades you said, and I know people who trade contra-trend and do well, so I am not trying to knock your method. I am just interested in your point about the press comment, as obviously I have a position in this market. As most of us know, the press are rarely right about major market moves :D Combine this with the 1998 top, and I am now "on alert" in case the market gives a topping signal in the next week or two.

As for my own experiences, personally I have not traded silver before this move. The silver market was basically dead from 1999 up until summer 2003, and I did not trade commodities much before 1999. But I traded gold for some time, so I am comfortable operating in silver too.
 
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