News Trading using Futures

[oraclewizard77]

What one needs to be careful of in any market not just CL since this occurs in Forex all the time is a spike down before price travels to your upside target.

You can't have too tight of a stop in trading, you need leave room for price to breath. Also, you would not want to enter short breakout of the support since this would have only been a false breakout to the downside.

This is what makes trading hard and only through experience and learning the correct price action strategies will allow you to avoid making a mistake in this situation.

This was a pretty perfect trade for when you are going for standard scalping profit. For scalping you should strive for a high win%.

 

[Overnight]

What one needs to be careful of in any market not just CL since this occurs in Forex all the time is a spike down before price travels to your upside target.

You can't have too tight of a stop in trading, you need leave room for price to breath...

Yeah, some of us know it. Ug. (And by the way, it is "breathe".)

 

[oraclewizard77]

Yeah, some of us know it. Ug. (And by the way, it is "breathe".)

I rather watch this on you tube.

 

[oraclewizard77]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-loading-rate-hikes-says-half-point-on-table

I was in a trade yesterday but my stop was hit on my short. The news came out while I was working. I shorted again at market open during the night for an overnight trade.

 

[oraclewizard77]

I checked on this trade after it went around 8 points in my favor, but did not move stop down. I wanted to do more of a time trade since I need to work in the morning and shut off my computer. Fed raising rates always has caused the market to go down. That is the catalyst to my short. Just because before I went short the market had already fallen is not important. That can actually be a good sign in a longer term trade since it means the news is affecting the price of a stock or the entire index. You don't want to fight the fed.

 

[oraclewizard77]

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...d-gains-after-news-china-stimulus-2022-04-27/

NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose modestly on Wednesday due to ongoing concerns about tight worldwide supply, underscored by another drawdown in U.S. distillate and gasoline inventories.

 

[oraclewizard77]

So we had bullish news come out during the day which caused oil prices to rebound. As some of you know I normally work during the day and trade after hours.

So we drew support and resistance lines. I would have actually gone long closer to the support line, but where I went long was after I started to analyze the chart and after I read the news story.

I place my stop somewhere under the support. This trade is actually a negative risk vs return since I was only going for 10 ticks since getting in late but did not want to get stopped out on a standard stop of say 10 ticks.

We did 1 contract, it may have been possible to do more contacts if we could have gotten long closer to the support level.

Feel free to post your thoughts or charts on how you would have handled the trade.

 

[Overnight]

...

Feel free to post your thoughts or charts on how you would have handled the trade.

CL has formed a decreasing wedge pattern over the past two months. I'd look for a break out of the wedge/pennant/whatever you'd call it before taking a direction going forward. Lord knows, these setups can unwind like a coiled spring rapidly and go SPROING!

 

[oraclewizard77]

So let's look at a trade I took a loss on. The mistake I see in going long this trade is that, CL is in a possible range and I went long at the top of the range. Once I saw it go back down, I decided to just kill the trade. While it did go back up after breaking the support level, it would have been very hard to make money on this trade if you were long unless you got in after price went back above the support level.

 

[oraclewizard77]

Now same day, we went long ES and had a winning trade. Please note that before I post these charts, I do remove my indicators so you will not understand why I went long for the 2nd contract since I don't want to give away any secrets.

However, I can still give you my thoughts about the Price Action I was looking at. We can see during normal trading hours, ES did make a high for the day. I did not need to read the news to understand bullish price action.

Price then proceeded to make a bottom and then a triangle breakout to the upside. Now I went long at a high candle since we are trending up, this is not a range. I then added another contract on a pullback to a location where an indicator not shown here as a strong support level.

No one is right 100% of the time, so to reduced risk, I get out of 1 of contracts at the BE point so I hopefully will not get stopped out on 2 contracts if I am wrong and I have now reduced my risk but left my original target and stop alone, I did not move my original targets or stops.

The 2nd contract hits my target, and this is my last trade of the week.