News dissemination only. If I could go back and trade again...

[Southampton]

On the two major news events this year (Brexit and Trump) a good manual trader could have pretty safely doubled their money on anything < 500K with pretty little risk.
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dream on - this is a complete delusion. Most traders go extinct going into highly volatile news driven volatility. With news only a few well connected insiders have an edge and take money from those that don't. Making 10,000 basis points on a news event means you are taking extreme risk and very unlikely to win, but very likely to blow up.

Why would your odds any worse than 50/50 going into extreme events?

 

[comagnum]

because the volatility is extreme whipsawing around. Sure, anyone can go casino mode. I don't know of any long term traders that made it very long going casino mode - bey hey, have fun - go for it. Anyone that thinks doubling there money in extreme volatility is a walk in a park is talking BS.

 

[garachen]

I'm talking about trading dislocations. Not taking a position of long or short. Not gambling. Not "casino mode".

I manually did hundreds of trades on each of those events. Churning tens of thousands of contracts.

In 2008, 2009 this stuff was more common. So it's really fun when it happens again.

 

[just21]

Trade the US yield curve in the evenings. CBOT is open until 10pm GMT. You can get an account direct with TT for $50 for software or use IB TWS mosaic for free. You can even lease a seat to get lower clearing with IB.

 

[Low Salubrity Thug]

I'm talking about trading dislocations. Not taking a position of long or short. Not gambling. Not "casino mode".

I manually did hundreds of trades on each of those events. Churning tens of thousands of contracts.

In 2008, 2009 this stuff was more common. So it's really fun when it happens again.

This is interesting. How do you define a "trading dislocation"? Do you simply define it as one instrument trading out of kilter with respect to another and betting on a convergence?

 

[garachen]

This is interesting. How do you define a "trading dislocation"? Do you simply define it as one instrument trading out of kilter with respect to another and betting on a convergence?

That's more for typical everyday trading. During really crazy events the levels of panic are several orders of magnitude higher. So you wouldn't trade normal dislocations because they are way too extreme and correlations become heavily lagged.

But you can trade the panic. Watching panic spread from one instrument to another. And you can be pretty accurate guessing what's going to happen during different time frames.

 

[easymon1]

That's more for typical everyday trading. During really crazy events the levels of panic are several orders of magnitude higher. So you wouldn't trade normal dislocations because they are way too extreme and correlations become heavily lagged.

But you can trade the panic. Watching panic spread from one instrument to another. And you can be pretty accurate guessing what's going to happen during different time frames.

Sequential instrument price reaction during a market dislocation -- a quick and dirty outline /example from a particular instrument chain and era would be most excellent if one comes to mind.

 

[trickshot]

On the two major news events this year (Brexit and Trump) a good manual trader could have pretty safely doubled their money on anything < 500K with pretty little risk. Not taking large positional bets but watching for algos to get turned off and then waiting the appropriate amount of time to step in a provide liquidity.

So, yes, I think one could make a living trading only events like this. It just doesn't allow much room for error and the pressure might cause you to screw up if you depending on only this for income.

Personally, I got pretty screwed with the GE move a few days after the Trump win. In hindsight, it was a pretty obvious play to make (for the guy who took my money) but he did his homework, saw the opportunity and forced me into a position I didn't want and couldn't get out of. He won, I lost.

Agree that the pressure would definitely be too great, that is also why traders who are undercapitalised tend to do very poorly over the long run. Its very tough to make money trading when one is under tremendous pressure to make the few bucks just to pay the bills.

 

[trickshot]

because the volatility is extreme whipsawing around. Sure, anyone can go casino mode. I don't know of any long term traders that made it very long going casino mode - bey hey, have fun - go for it. Anyone that thinks doubling there money in extreme volatility is a walk in a park is talking BS.

Extreme volatility results in mispriced instruments e.g options. For example several ETFs were mispriced during the Aug meltdown last year, the algos were switched off pre-market and there were simply no buyers for the triggered stops.

 

[Zr1Trader]

That's more for typical everyday trading. During really crazy events the levels of panic are several orders of magnitude higher. So you wouldn't trade normal dislocations because they are way too extreme and correlations become heavily lagged.

But you can trade the panic. Watching panic spread from one instrument to another. And you can be pretty accurate guessing what's going to happen during different time frames.

The other day with FOMC announcing rate hike and possibly 3 more next year , tsy's had a big reaction fairly quickly, took gold and silver a while to follow. Took a bit but silver ended up dumping big later . Just an observation. Perhaps this is a bit of what you are talking about.