Quote from cdcaveman:
Umm.. I'd look at the implied vols of the options and look at the historic/realized volatility.. Compare them.. i don't know what your time frame is on the trade.. But generally speeaking i try to situation myself into a position that i can be wrong about timing and wrong about direction and it not cost me that much... Call ratio backspreads... If you wanna be long on something.. A little otm centered butterfly makes the trade cheaper and more profitable on a drift up... What your trading with options is the implied against the future realized volatility... my thoughts are that once Us wakes up to our problems the bonds over in euro are going to go up... Maybe a flight from the dollar etc.. But who knows when... All kinds of poeple have got caught up in trying to short us tresuries.. Disperse your exposure over the longest period of time considering the risk/reward.... IE your better off betting smaller amounts over time on higher leveraged trades then tying up a bunch of money in one trade...