Quote from JimBob56:
For you guys who actually make a living in the markets you have my total respect. Started trading in January and lost 28% of my stake. Manage to eake out a 2.5 % profit for March.
New strategy is smaller positions and keep my day job.
I'm not selling any stocks until they reach at least a 4% return or it blows through my 6.5% stops. I've been staying away from margin.
Do any of you pros have an opinion on MTG it's got a 6.7 multiple it going to show $1.71 earnings on next thursday. The CEO and some of the directors bought the stock at $61 it is currently $57
It looks to me (Home Building Contractor) that the stock could be selling at $67 with a stop set at $51.
MTG reports next week, currently the stock is selling off this may be just due to general market/industry sentiment or because people are reducing exposure prior to earnings or positioning short prior to them. If you have a good idea of what they will report but the market is saying other wise you should reexamine your convictions in case you missed something.
It may be better for you to take a position after they report earnings to catch the drift up if you are correct and reduce the risk of being wrong. If you understand the business and the reported results you should be able to act before the crowd. You should also realize that the market not only looks at the immediate earnings but also at the trend over a much larger time frame to value a company, this means that they may report great numbers only to sell off immediately or a few days after. The insurance business is valued differently then other sectors also, you should google the various ratios that can be applied and compare MTG to its peers.
I also agree that your risk/reward on your trades are backwards unless you have a high and repeatable win rate.
AAA30
