Newb Q on Selling strangles into earnings to profit from IV dump
- Thread starter gangof4
- Start date
I found an interesting paper on DAX FTSE correlation trade. An excerpt here:
In order take advantage of extreme positions in the implied volatility spread, there are a number
possible ways to structure a trade which would be expected to profit from any subsequent mean
reversion of the spread. Assuming a current high reading of the spread, defined as
DAXIV/FTSEIV, i.e.: DAX implied volatility is high in comparison to its usual position relative
to FTSE implied volatility, then one of following trade structures may be considered:
1. Long volatility outright: Simply Buy FTSE Options. If we were seeking to buy options
cheaply we could consider buying calls (if bullish), puts (if bearish), or straddles (for an outright
volatility exposure) on just the FTSE.
2. Take in cash: Buy FTSE straddles Sell DAX straddles. To benefit from the current wide
implied volatility spread between the FTSE and the DAX, we could buy FTSE straddles and sell
DAX straddles. Because FTSE implied volatility is lower, it would be expected that for the same
notional amount, the cost of the FTSE straddle would be less than that of the proceeds from the
DAX straddle.
3. Zero-Cost Strategy: Buy FTSE straddles, Sell DAX straddles but with limited downside risk.
As a variant of the above trade structure, rather than taking in cash, we could use the volatility
differential to protect against a large down move in the DAX while still benefiting from a large
up or down move in the FTSE. In particular, we could go long FTSE straddles, and go short
DAX straddles, and use the cash difference to buy an out-of-the-money DAX put, limiting the
downside to perhaps 90-100% spot. If the DAX crashed, our short liability would be capped in a
down move. In such an event, the FTSE would likely move sharply as well, so we would
probably gain from the long FTSE straddle position.
Note that this trade may further benefit from any skew in the DAX that is typically considerably
flatter than on the FTSE, thereby reducing the price of the OTM DAX put. For example, the
vol increase in buying a 90-strike option relative to at-the-money is about 4.8 vols for the FTSE,
but only 3.7 vols for the DAX using the average implied volatility level across our time period.
24
Measured as a fraction of ATM vol, these skew comparisons would appear even more
pronounced.
4. Zero-Cost Strategy: Buy FTSE Straddles, Sell DAX Strangles. Another potential zero-cost
strategy would be to buy straddles on the FTSE and sell strangles (out-of-the-money puts plus
out-of-the-money calls) on the DAX. In general, strangles cost less than straddles, but since vols
are higher for the DAX, the strategy would still be zero cost. In particular, one could sell an outof-
the-money put with a 90-100% of spot strike, and an out-of-the-money call at say a 105%
strike. In this strategy, if the DAX remains in the 90-100% range, then the short option position
expires worthless. The tradeâs profits would be simply any gains from movement in the FTSE,
where we are long straddles. If the DAX moves outside that range, then losses on the DAX
position will tend to be offset by likely gains on the FTSE long straddle position, assuming they
tend to move together.
5. Variance Swaps. The purest volatility play would be a variance swap, wherein we receive/pay
the difference between a fixed reference level of volatility (the âstrikeâ level) and the actual
realized level of volatility. The advantage of this instrument is that the payoff to a correct
volatility view is independent of future spot.
The entire paper can be found here:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=881550&CFID=39103856&CFTOKEN=56807636
EDIT: Does anyone else think starting a correlation thread would be helpful? I'm vaguely aware of an older thread but as I recall it became a mud-slinging contest in a hurry.
In order take advantage of extreme positions in the implied volatility spread, there are a number
possible ways to structure a trade which would be expected to profit from any subsequent mean
reversion of the spread. Assuming a current high reading of the spread, defined as
DAXIV/FTSEIV, i.e.: DAX implied volatility is high in comparison to its usual position relative
to FTSE implied volatility, then one of following trade structures may be considered:
1. Long volatility outright: Simply Buy FTSE Options. If we were seeking to buy options
cheaply we could consider buying calls (if bullish), puts (if bearish), or straddles (for an outright
volatility exposure) on just the FTSE.
2. Take in cash: Buy FTSE straddles Sell DAX straddles. To benefit from the current wide
implied volatility spread between the FTSE and the DAX, we could buy FTSE straddles and sell
DAX straddles. Because FTSE implied volatility is lower, it would be expected that for the same
notional amount, the cost of the FTSE straddle would be less than that of the proceeds from the
DAX straddle.
3. Zero-Cost Strategy: Buy FTSE straddles, Sell DAX straddles but with limited downside risk.
As a variant of the above trade structure, rather than taking in cash, we could use the volatility
differential to protect against a large down move in the DAX while still benefiting from a large
up or down move in the FTSE. In particular, we could go long FTSE straddles, and go short
DAX straddles, and use the cash difference to buy an out-of-the-money DAX put, limiting the
downside to perhaps 90-100% spot. If the DAX crashed, our short liability would be capped in a
down move. In such an event, the FTSE would likely move sharply as well, so we would
probably gain from the long FTSE straddle position.
Note that this trade may further benefit from any skew in the DAX that is typically considerably
flatter than on the FTSE, thereby reducing the price of the OTM DAX put. For example, the
vol increase in buying a 90-strike option relative to at-the-money is about 4.8 vols for the FTSE,
but only 3.7 vols for the DAX using the average implied volatility level across our time period.
24
Measured as a fraction of ATM vol, these skew comparisons would appear even more
pronounced.
4. Zero-Cost Strategy: Buy FTSE Straddles, Sell DAX Strangles. Another potential zero-cost
strategy would be to buy straddles on the FTSE and sell strangles (out-of-the-money puts plus
out-of-the-money calls) on the DAX. In general, strangles cost less than straddles, but since vols
are higher for the DAX, the strategy would still be zero cost. In particular, one could sell an outof-
the-money put with a 90-100% of spot strike, and an out-of-the-money call at say a 105%
strike. In this strategy, if the DAX remains in the 90-100% range, then the short option position
expires worthless. The tradeâs profits would be simply any gains from movement in the FTSE,
where we are long straddles. If the DAX moves outside that range, then losses on the DAX
position will tend to be offset by likely gains on the FTSE long straddle position, assuming they
tend to move together.
5. Variance Swaps. The purest volatility play would be a variance swap, wherein we receive/pay
the difference between a fixed reference level of volatility (the âstrikeâ level) and the actual
realized level of volatility. The advantage of this instrument is that the payoff to a correct
volatility view is independent of future spot.
The entire paper can be found here:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=881550&CFID=39103856&CFTOKEN=56807636
EDIT: Does anyone else think starting a correlation thread would be helpful? I'm vaguely aware of an older thread but as I recall it became a mud-slinging contest in a hurry.
absolutely , but unfortunately not too many non directional options traders here. Check out my exotic correll trade DAX-SPX paper trade on riskarb's( probably similar to what you described here) ; I had zero responds on 100% + trade , LOL
Now , if I would of post "I got 2k and looking for the best prop shop " , I probably get 50 pages and 100k views
very nice work thanks for the example...generalizing here... most traders are naturally directional (its easier). It takes far more work to derive and work out non directional trades and very difficult to master.
note. I didn't say most PROFITABLE traders...
Thanks for the tip Riskarb. Looks interesting.
Just wondering what incentive you are giving IV to start this thread?
All he has to look forward to is a bunch of people coming on his thread and rubbishing his techniques coupled with a never ending stream of lurkers asking questions that were covered 7 posts ago and then let's not forget the incessant information beggars.....sheesh....am I getting jaded here on ET or what? LOL. I think I was moved by Ozzy's recent post LMAO. BTW, I will be one of those information beggars
Seriously though, to get you started there's plenty of information in the archives and on the net but it sounds like you've had a look. For correlation, "Pairs Trading","Intermarket" and "Market Neutral" are other possible search terms you may wish to employ. Most won't be in the context of options.
There are a few books on pairs. I won't comment on their merits as it is subjective:
Trading Pairs, Whistler
Pairs Trading, Vidyamurthy
May need to brush up on your math if you want to read Vidyamurthy LOL.
Whistler also has an accompanying website and software with an imaginative domain name. Exercise for the reader to figure it out
There's a new book: The Handbook of Pairs Trading which has some option specific coverage pertaining to the strategy. I haven't read it yet but it is available as an electronic download so might grab it.
ToS has had a couple of mock pairs trades and seminars with options. They should be in the archives on the site etc.
IIRC Riskarb did a few pairs in his old exotics journal...or I could be imagining it.
Once you've mined the information there's only one thing left to do: figure out the rest by yourself. Is the spread (volatility or direction) going to converge/diverge? Take appropriate positions.
Good luck VP!
MoMoney.
"I was so ugly my mother used to feed me with a slingshot"
"My psychiatrist told me I was crazy and I said I want a second opinion. He said okay, you're ugly too. "
"I went to a fight the other night, and a hockey game broke out. "
"A girl phoned me the other day and said... Come on over, there's nobody home. I went over. Nobody was home."
"When I was a kid my parents moved a lot, but I always found them. "
"My wife's jealousy is getting ridiculous. The other day she looked at my calendar and wanted to know who May was."
"One year they asked me to be poster boy - for birth control."
"Yeah, I know I'm ugly... I said to a bartender, 'Make me a zombie.' He said 'God beat me to it.' "
"I have good looking kids. Thank goodness my wife cheats on me."
"I could tell that my parents hated me. My bath toys were a toaster and a radio."
I get no respect.
"My psychiatrist told me I was crazy and I said I want a second opinion. He said okay, you're ugly too. "
"I went to a fight the other night, and a hockey game broke out. "
"A girl phoned me the other day and said... Come on over, there's nobody home. I went over. Nobody was home."
"When I was a kid my parents moved a lot, but I always found them. "
"My wife's jealousy is getting ridiculous. The other day she looked at my calendar and wanted to know who May was."
"One year they asked me to be poster boy - for birth control."
"Yeah, I know I'm ugly... I said to a bartender, 'Make me a zombie.' He said 'God beat me to it.' "
"I have good looking kids. Thank goodness my wife cheats on me."
"I could tell that my parents hated me. My bath toys were a toaster and a radio."
I get no respect.