New York is Dead

[gaj]

not that what i'll say will change anyone's mind, BUT..

of my friends, second-hand rumors, and talking with a few other people across several industries....

there's exactly ONE of them that's in a company that's expanding. they're in finance. every other one is at best seeing a drawdown, most others have been dealing with layoffs across the board. and that's not just finance, but entertainment, publishing, food/dining, and several others.

the best places are still doing well, but it's NOT because of the americans. tourists are doing more spending than before, and americans are spending less per group of less-expensive items than normal this time of year.

if you go strictly off the visuals, times square still looks packed. but talk with the ppl, or go to other areas, and you'll see a whole 'nother story.

 

[trader_arb]

Quote from gaj:

not that what i'll say will change anyone's mind, BUT..

of my friends, second-hand rumors, and talking with a few other people across several industries....

there's exactly ONE of them that's in a company that's expanding. they're in finance. every other one is at best seeing a drawdown, most others have been dealing with layoffs across the board. and that's not just finance, but entertainment, publishing, food/dining, and several others.

the best places are still doing well, but it's NOT because of the americans. tourists are doing more spending than before, and americans are spending less per group of less-expensive items than normal this time of year.

if you go strictly off the visuals, times square still looks packed. but talk with the ppl, or go to other areas, and you'll see a whole 'nother story.

well said. I can't tell you how many times I've seen places in the city busy every day of the week and still suddenly go out of business. It happens all the time, as traffic is not an indication of actual profit.

 

[gaj]

thanks arb...oh, one other thing which is NOT evident to the person making a casual view-over, and i haven't seen anyone talk about this:

check to see if you'll get a discount paying in cash, as opposed to credit.

this is NOT something publicly stated, and it is NOT to avoid paying taxes.

it's because the credit card company fees, and fear of chargebacks / delays in getting the money from the c.c. companies (along with slower payment from other vendors), is starting to eat into profits and having a positive bottom line *today*.

there's a bird-in-the-hand mentality which is starting to creep in. gas stations used to be the only ones offering discounts, others are as well.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from trader_arb:

well said. I can't tell you how many times I've seen places in the city busy every day of the week and still suddenly go out of business. It happens all the time, as traffic is not an indication of actual profit.

and profit isn't an indication of management skill....

which is likely the real reason "packed places' go out of business.

in addition, some of these places are self designed to implode--clubs for instance-- to avoid taxes, etc. .


surf

 

[B. Rowshan]

Don't pay any attn to marketmoronsurfer. It was his life's dream to goto NYC, and he is the ultimate wannabee. Now that he finally made it to nyc, and is paying his rent monthly, he will be the last person to admit that his "big move" was to an imploding city. Hence, the rose colored glasses and idiotic answers from him.

wannabee = "cipriani" next to me = "luxury stores packed", "I live next to 5th ave" etc etc

 

[BadCo]

Last night, I ran into someone who runs a gallery on the lower eastside. I asked her about business. She said things were fine until two months ago when they "ran into a wall."

You have to remember that people on a site like this are gonna be more in tune with financial markets and economics than most. It wasn't until the stock market crash and people suddenly realizing that their 401ks had taken a serious hit did the recession go "mainstream."

Reality is really gonna set in when banks start lowering credit limits (it's already happening) and people are faced with having to actually live within their means. I believe there are many people out there who can't even conceive of running out of money, "I'll just put it on my credit card."

 

[spyglass]

I was in NYC two weeks ago for a business meeting. Every year on the 1st weekend in Nov I go to NYC. It alway happens to be the same weekend as the NYC marathon. I stay at the same Hotel (Hotel Elysee) each year. This year has been the first in 4 or 5 years that the hotel was not booked solid. This year I was able to change rooms after the first night and had several choices of rooms available to select from. My observations walking around 5th avenue is that while there are still tourists and people out, very few were walking into the stores and shopping. The streets also seemed less crowded to me. I noticed less foreign conversations and there were plenty of for lease and vacant retail spaces around madison and 55th.

So from my personal observations while it wasn't dead, it was certainly less crowded and less busy. NYC is not immune.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from annaland:

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That happens to me, too, when I occasionally have a bad bowl or chili.

 

[sammybea]

Quote from sammybea:

Toll Brothers CEO is now admitting the NYC market is "dead." The supply in manhattan is overwhelming right now.. well at least in the one bedroom market. Anyone want to venture a guess when this will turn around??


http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/toll-on-ny-its-dead/

53,000 Citigroup cuts just adds fuel to the fire. I love this city.. but my timing suck when i bought a place 7 months ago on the UWS. Ugh... Just hoping I will be able to break even in a few years. (I am down 10% right now.. roughly 85k)

 

[Mecro]

Quote from EPrado:

Surf is that your chick? She is rather cute.

You call that cute? LOL. You need to get out of the boonies more often.

Marketsurfer does not know NYC, he just moved into it. Come on, he goes to tourist traps like Cipriani's.

Quality places will do OK, as long as they are not overleveraged. The local mom & pops should be fine also, as there is a sense of community in NYC neighborhoods.

The rest are on their way out. I'm glad to see the over-commercialization of NYC reverse its course.