Everytime I read your posts.
New to trading - Got a bunch of books. Scared to learn outdated things.
- Thread starter Turiacus
- Start date
I'm not qualified as I have not tested nor traded fib's. Re your argument, trend lines smack of predetermination, pullbacks, patterns etc. The only arbiter is whether a thing works.
Although I find the concepts fascinating, I don’t use Fibonacci, and haven’t conducted any research/testing, but since we’re dealing with percentages, I don’t see any reason why a powerful quantitative framework can’t be built around it, or using it in combination with other studies.
I don't use trend lines; I've found them overrated. But at least they are based on trends as they are unfolding. (Not that I'm making a case for them.) However, Fib numbers/ratios/levels are generic, so they are supposedly known before any directional move takes place. That predetermination on a whole new level.
Occam and his shaving gear come to mind.
books are theoretical and you will lose yourself:i read my first book in 1994 and about 10 a year since;that is a lot of money spent.
I then discovered the internet and it was like 'Alice in Wonderland: a land where you find tons of FREE information.
It will really set a firm foundation and help you:it really helped me! i am now an expert in technical analysis. After 24 years now i am ready to make money.
BECAUSE NOW I KNOW WHAT NOT TO DO
No I am not joking;
if you want to learn, you have to learn all the rubbish first: if you find technical analysis gold, in first book, how will you know, it is gold: you have to learn, what is the shit so then you may differentiate.
It is not easy to find diamonds in rubbish: rubbish stinks.
If you want to learn, read all the books you can find, read all the technical analysis info on the net, and, like me, you will become an expert.
BUT IF YOU WANT TO MAKE MONEY THEN DO THIS:
put some moving averages on a chart: for eg 5, 20, 50, 100, 200; you can also use 7.5, 21.8 44.3, 55.3 etc
the funny thing is, it does not matter.
Because what you need, is you want something, that represents ' really short term' 'short term' 'medium term', in between 'medium term and long term', and 'long term'.
What is really short term? You decide: you may decide it is 5, or 10 or, 20 40, or 51.65, or 80.78, or 200 or 200.98, it does not matter. because once you decide what is really short term, then all the rest follows.
Now the basic idea in trading is to buy when the short term trend is down but the longer term trend is up.
how specifically do you do this?
1.When the 5 ma crosses over the 20 ma from above, buy if the 50 ma,100 ma, 200 ma are all sloping up. Further there should be a healthy difference between all the longer term averages.
2. if the market falls through 5 ma 20 ma, which are sloping slight up or flat ,in what looks like a straight line, with all down bars and no up bars [1-2 dojis are acceptable], and hits an severely upward sloping 50 ma, then you can buy.
3. if the market slowly falls through the the 5 ma then 20 ma and touches the 50 ma,where the down move has a lot of up bars,DO NOT buy.
Do the reverse for sells.
The tough part in trading is when do you take profit: no perfect technique i know of but i will suggest a few things to look for:
You may take profit when the 5 ma has gone up steeply while the 20 ma is more shallow,there is a big gap between the longer term ma and the shorter ones.......go for a reward to risk ratio of not less than 4:1 or more:because trends tend to go on and on on and this is a trend following system.
Try this on demo
any experiences with using this please tell me i would love to know
Why do not traders use this simple system? because the market trends only 10% of the time and so you do not make money 90% of the time. May be that is why statistics show that beginner traders lose 90% of the time. They over trade.
me who have used Brooks' price action for the last ten years, have lost money 90% of the time This is because that system works only for Brooks, as the name, implies or suggest This is not to say that Brooks is a bad trader; it shows I am a terrible trader.
i will tell you the secret of trading which i discovered after 25 years of trading:
You cannot make a lot of money trading because someone has to lose a lot of money.
Do you think traders who are trading for more than 5 years are going to lose a lot of money?
Do you think Goldman is going to lose a lot of money?:if you doubt me, why do you not call Goldman Sachs and ask them? They recently got fined for manipulating the fx market from 2008-2013.
They will gift you a little money because they HAVE TO; it is their cost of entering and exiting their huge positions which sometimes take days or weeks.
be happy with their gifts; do not be ungrateful or unrealistic.
finally if you make money with this system and you make more than 500000 usd /year with it,donate 20% to a well known charity of your choice.
When you see posts that claim tradergod is drunk whenever he posts, that he copies from the dustbin and pastes it in ET,.....that he is actually another avatar of Fred Foresight....that he does not trade at all, that he is not qualified to give advice.... have a beer and buy a Porche with your profits.
I then discovered the internet and it was like 'Alice in Wonderland: a land where you find tons of FREE information.
It will really set a firm foundation and help you:it really helped me! i am now an expert in technical analysis. After 24 years now i am ready to make money.
BECAUSE NOW I KNOW WHAT NOT TO DO
No I am not joking;
if you want to learn, you have to learn all the rubbish first: if you find technical analysis gold, in first book, how will you know, it is gold: you have to learn, what is the shit so then you may differentiate.
It is not easy to find diamonds in rubbish: rubbish stinks.
If you want to learn, read all the books you can find, read all the technical analysis info on the net, and, like me, you will become an expert.
BUT IF YOU WANT TO MAKE MONEY THEN DO THIS:
put some moving averages on a chart: for eg 5, 20, 50, 100, 200; you can also use 7.5, 21.8 44.3, 55.3 etc
the funny thing is, it does not matter.Because what you need, is you want something, that represents ' really short term' 'short term' 'medium term', in between 'medium term and long term', and 'long term'.
What is really short term? You decide: you may decide it is 5, or 10 or, 20 40, or 51.65, or 80.78, or 200 or 200.98, it does not matter. because once you decide what is really short term, then all the rest follows.
Now the basic idea in trading is to buy when the short term trend is down but the longer term trend is up.
how specifically do you do this?
1.When the 5 ma crosses over the 20 ma from above, buy if the 50 ma,100 ma, 200 ma are all sloping up. Further there should be a healthy difference between all the longer term averages.
2. if the market falls through 5 ma 20 ma, which are sloping slight up or flat ,in what looks like a straight line, with all down bars and no up bars [1-2 dojis are acceptable], and hits an severely upward sloping 50 ma, then you can buy.
3. if the market slowly falls through the the 5 ma then 20 ma and touches the 50 ma,where the down move has a lot of up bars,DO NOT buy.
Do the reverse for sells.
The tough part in trading is when do you take profit: no perfect technique i know of but i will suggest a few things to look for:
You may take profit when the 5 ma has gone up steeply while the 20 ma is more shallow,there is a big gap between the longer term ma and the shorter ones.......go for a reward to risk ratio of not less than 4:1 or more:because trends tend to go on and on on and this is a trend following system.
Try this on demo
any experiences with using this please tell me i would love to know
Why do not traders use this simple system? because the market trends only 10% of the time and so you do not make money 90% of the time. May be that is why statistics show that beginner traders lose 90% of the time. They over trade.
me who have used Brooks' price action for the last ten years, have lost money 90% of the time
This is because that system works only for Brooks, as the name, implies or suggest This is not to say that Brooks is a bad trader; it shows I am a terrible trader.i will tell you the secret of trading which i discovered after 25 years of trading:
You cannot make a lot of money trading because someone has to lose a lot of money.
Do you think traders who are trading for more than 5 years are going to lose a lot of money?
Do you think Goldman is going to lose a lot of money?:if you doubt me, why do you not call Goldman Sachs and ask them? They recently got fined for manipulating the fx market from 2008-2013.
They will gift you a little money because they HAVE TO; it is their cost of entering and exiting their huge positions which sometimes take days or weeks.
be happy with their gifts; do not be ungrateful or unrealistic.
finally if you make money with this system and you make more than 500000 usd /year with it,donate 20% to a well known charity of your choice.
When you see posts that claim tradergod is drunk whenever he posts, that he copies from the dustbin and pastes it in ET,.....that he is actually another avatar of Fred Foresight....that he does not trade at all, that he is not qualified to give advice.... have a beer and buy a Porche with your profits.
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Just going back through this awesome thread, and I saw this, and I've seen others reference Xela's list before. Curious, was it not shown she was really some guy with a dubious past? If so, her good book list is still valid I hope?
Thanks!
I have read 1000 books.i read my first book in 1994
they all teach you to analyse the market.
you will never understand the market by analysis.
you will understand only by observation.
I became profitable on when I threw all my books away and cleaned my chart and my mind and observed the market. for a week.
what 20 years of books could not do, one week did.
and choose an instrument which MOVES. which swings.
I day traded eurusd for 12 years ……i only made some headway when i shifted to gpbusd.
trading eur usd for 12 years cost me more than 100000 usd
do not read books ...….observe something that swings.
AND FINALLY ......eurusd …….STINKS
Xela was sensible enough despite his drag persona.
I forgot when/where some monkey threw darts at a newspaper to choose stocks to buy, a strong Bull market is incredible.
Reasons: why anything works? Volume of one or many to force price to go one direction up the Dome ladder. Fibs/Gann works because many people believe in them, there are books written to fill up pages on why they work, number sequence, circles, squares of 9, what most people do not understand, these are rules to reduce amount of trading, people often take way too many trades. Breakouts are ok under certain conditions and some times much better than waiting for price to come down to a level, but if you don't have clear understanding of the "why's", going to be hard to judge where to place protective stops or how much possible profit to be had.
Same with retracements to moving averages, need different parameters depending on price action happening. Am sure many have experience a "pop" in price and this causes different prices in "Fib's", but is this "pop" to be forgotten and use price before the "pop"?
There is no "secret sauce" that is going to work every time, but clear understanding of risk management can keep you playing the game.