New study says: Technical Analysis is garbage

Quote from MarkBrown:

you know for many years i wonder why don bright is so anti TA i have tried to prove time and time again to anyone that not only does it work but you can do it automatically like a money machine.

so don dont like ta maybe he dont swing that way? but i love ta guaranteed 100% red blood guy i am. lol

without ta i guess don serves a purpose to the market - liquidity
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great, then you can be the one to sign up for the challenge above (timertrac, collective2, strategyrunner, etc.). Pick your auditing site and get ready to prove us wrong...

Unfortunately, people backing TA disappear when actually challenged to furnish proof.
 
Quote from Stoxtrader:

There are quite a few papers on effectiveness of technical analysis. "The Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review" says there are over 130, and that was in 2004. There are many arguments both for and against.

At least one has to consider that shorter timeframes might be more influenced by TA. The paper linked above, "Technical Analysis Around the World", studies trading systems with buy signal and sell signal, usually spaced by a holding period. (And finds TA useless.) Whereas the paper "A Non-Random Walk down Canary Wharf" studies effectiveness of next day trading only. (And finds TA useful.)

The Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481&rec=1&srcabs=566882

Technical Analysis in Financial Markets
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=566882&rec=1&srcabs=1181367

A Non-Random Walk down Canary Wharf
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9871/
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After trading costs are factored in, some of these studies were found to no longer be profitable. Other "positive" studies have been found to have "data snooping" flaws.
 
Quote from TraderZones:



Unfortunately, people backing TA disappear when actually challenged to furnish proof.
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I am willing to put my strat up on collective2 for 6 months.

What is in it for me when I prove that price action alone can be used to make money over that period?

After all, 6 months of work is 6 months of work. Even if only a few minutes a day.

I am serious.
 
Quote from TrueRange:

I am willing to put my strat up on collective2 for 6 months.

What is in it for me when I prove that price action alone can be used to make money over that period?

After all, 6 months of work is 6 months of work. Even if only a few minutes a day.

I am serious.
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If it "works" you will probably be able to make quite a bit of money from potential subscribers. God knows, there are very few systems on that or any other auditing site that obviously work. And quite a few have of them are self-stated to be be based on TA.
 
Quote from TraderZones:

great, then you can be the one to sign up for the challenge above (timertrac, collective2, strategyrunner, etc.). Pick your auditing site and get ready to prove us wrong...

Unfortunately, people backing TA disappear when actually challenged to furnish proof.
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see now that would take work on my part and i dont like to work. i like to do deals and make money - the trading is boring to me. i just like to spend the money and figure out how to make money without working for it. which i have done now i am into the investment phase of my life. thinking about my kids and grand-kids future all that. so while i would like nothing more than to kick some doubting arse - i have no time for it. mb
 
Quote from TraderZones:

If it "works" you will probably be able to make quite a bit of money from potential subscribers. God knows, there are very few systems on that or any other auditing site that obviously work. And quite a few have of them are self-stated to be be based on TA.
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I have one running there right now that has made money for 4 months in a row. Not one subscriber willing to pay me 200 a month to stay on the right side of the market.

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
+1.6% +2.1% +1.9% +2.5%

Trades 112
# Profitable 64 (57.1%)
Avg trade duration 1.6 days
Annual return (compounded) 35.5%
Average win $726
Average loss $531
Profit factor 1.8:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 8.81%
drawdown period Sept 03, 2009 to Sept 29, 2009
Correlation w/ S&P -0.265
Sharpe ratio 1.396
C2 Realism Factor 80%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 2.5%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%





Try again..what is in it for me?
 
Quote from maxpi:

WTF you talking about? Opening range trading is right out of Toby Crabel's research... If it's not FA, it's not intuition, then what is it? Measuring opening range volatility and using it to predict volatility is most certainly technical in nature.. who made you the arbiter of trading definitions?
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tobys research from 1989. you people bring a smile to my face you are SO OFF THE TRACK!
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

No, actually TA is defined by you, the trader. If you look at a chart, and place trades from ANYTHING other than just company fundamentals, you've just used TA.

Sure there are classic TA patterns, but that is just one subset in an almost unlimited array of things one can use to decipher mkt action.
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Must be nice to be able to make up definitions to fit your paradigm. where I come from, definitions are what they are, not what you think they are.

from the lambo buying gambling grandfather, to the definition changing true believers, you people are just another pawn in the game or living in fantasy world
 
Quote from TrueRange:

I have one running there right now that has made money for 4 months in a row. Not one subscriber willing to pay me 200 a month to stay on the right side of the market.

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
+1.6% +2.1% +1.9% +2.5%

Trades 112
# Profitable 64 (57.1%)
Avg trade duration 1.6 days
Annual return (compounded) 35.5%
Average win $726
Average loss $531
Profit factor 1.8:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) 8.81%
drawdown period Sept 03, 2009 to Sept 29, 2009
Correlation w/ S&P -0.265
Sharpe ratio 1.396
C2 Realism Factor 80%
Probabilities of future account loss
Chance of 10% account loss 2.5%
Chance of 20% account loss 0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss 0.0%





Try again..what is in it for me?
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show me the system
 
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