New study says: Technical Analysis is garbage

[dtrader98]

Quote from Daal:

This is not right. As far as I'm aware the only way to win at slots is when they are the 'jackpot' types where a certain % of the money gets accumulated overtime and at certain point the machine achieves positive expectancy. If she is 'winning at it' she is lying to you. Sorry to destroy your marriage

Speaking of winning at the machines. You guys need to check out an episode of criminal masterminds (title ?). There was a guy who QA tested video poker machines. Well, apparently knowing that ICs never generated truly random code, he was able to deduce the seed and modulo algorithm for certain manufacturers.

He and friends made millions until they were finally discovered (too greedy) and went to jail. He would likely have been more successful taking his knowledge to wall street and starting a hedge fund. Less chance of getting busted if he was working for the right folks.

SEC just starting using data mining; talk about being behind the times.

 

[swtrader]

Quote from Daal:

discuss

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1181367

but wouldnt the research for this paper require analysis, of a technical nature?

 

[mister_doodi]

BRB I'm gonna plot some data points post a chart that confirms that TA is useless.

 

[ambienCR]

if jah want some fun post a random chart of price points and show it to the TA true belivers---- dont tell em--- they will tell you all kind of stuff about what will happen. THIS PROVES THE INANITY OF TA but they never listen cause its a CRUTCH FOR THE LOSERS and the few peeps who GOT LUCKY USING IT.

 

[ambienCR]

Quote from Pekelo:

When I saw the title I thought: Oh God, Surf is back...

What happened to surf? Last I read he was a fairly decent analyst with original ideas and a clever writer. Did he finally split this scene?

 

[maxpi]

Quote from Daal:

This is not right. As far as I'm aware the only way to win at slots is when they are the 'jackpot' types where a certain % of the money gets accumulated overtime and at certain point the machine achieves positive expectancy. If she is 'winning at it' she is lying to you. Sorry to destroy your marriage. If she had this kind of magic power she would own the world and be banned from Vegas

Nope, just ordinary slots.. there are those that can do it and those that have proof it's impossible... she plays for fun, if it's not for fun she quits, it's like the money is a side benefit...

There are traders that say they trade on gut feel and nothing else... I believe that some of them do that and some are making a cover story so nobody will be looking over their shoulder...

 

[Kicking]

good, if fewer use it it's better then right ? they have a point though a lot of it IS garbage.

 

[athlonmank8]

Huge flaw in this analysis. They've got plenty more to go. Certain TA should only be tested @ certain points or market levels.

There's absolutely NO WAY to accurately test whether TA works in general. These guys are kidding themselves.

 

[athlonmank8]

I'm almost positive I have a strategy they didn't test.

Remember 60% expectancy + positive W/L $ amount is all you need.

Although getting an edge reliable enough to do it is a PITA it can be done.

Certain aspects of TA has already been proven in other research as well. I'm sure they weren't creative enough (or crazy) to test these.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from ambienCR:

What happened to surf? Last I read he was a fairly decent analyst with original ideas and a clever writer. Did he finally split this scene?

Banned(again)

decent analyst? not really

original ideas? maybe, but I've never noticed one

clever writer? maybe, if you're the type that enjoys Cramer.