I don't know what to say- my tears are staining the keyboard as I type- Barrons has shrank itself to the size of a tabloid. Last week's edition got tossed in the trash, I thought it was a gossip rag my wife had brought home- this is serious! Please Mr. editor don't even try and tell us how great the new format is; how much easier to hold now; how your strategy sessions came upon this new size... IT SUCKS! The typeface remains enlarged as the stories are shrunk to a level where a man in his 40's has trouble reading it. The print is blurry. This was an effort to save money nothing else, and by the sheer stupidness of it- surly sales will fall. Why not have made it thinner and longer and folded it over?
It's the roundtable edition! That time when 12 white people are interviewed about the stock market- always worth a look but usually the ideas are so far fetched and the prices quoted in Thai Botts etc that it often useless.
Lets take the issue from the beginning: Boy Alan Ableson's column is even more dour than usual and for once it's written really poorly. Upon close examination we see this one was penned by Randall W. Forsyth! Is Alan on vacation or " downsized " with the rest of the paper... my subscription is up mr Dow Jones you had better not of pushed dear Alan out the door!
The problem with highlighting the DOW's 24th close at record highs is of course self explanatory... everything is new when blasting off into space; eventually you have to stop counting the stars and just enjoy the ride.
Mr Forsyth notes in choppy sentences that investors Intelligence is 55.4% bullish and 20.7% bearish- seems reasonable to me, however, news from charles schwab is that they are seeing the lowest level of put buying to call buying since last november. Also big board margin debt is near it's 2000 peak that's not good- I've been coasting along without margin- other investors are getting the most bang for their buck. Next a small bit on the 6% drop in oil, in fact- the front contract for oil is off a whopping 31% since last July and Mr. Forsyryth makes the point I've been asking: why oh why is it NOT showing up at the pumps?
Streetwise column is a dud it has one interesting fact that last year nearly 90% of all inflows to stock funds went into overseas funds! I'm left to debate weather that's really possible with another cup of coffee.
Now we run across our first idea Staples. at 17 X earnings it's got the possibility of seeing it's share price appreciate 14% just be getting back to it's normalized PE. 12% growth rate at older stores overall rate close to 15% this is worth a further look.
Next up Xerox this company is in transition phase their black and white printers are declining in sales and a shift away from light lense technology is trouble too. I'm a little negative on the story but there is a weird ending to the piece- that based on options activity last week a rumor was going around that even worse shape Eastman Kodak was going to make a bid for the company... Barrons seems to think staples can go up 25% from here that's a healthy bullish call so we will keep it in the maybe file for now.
Ok into the roundtable and first thing we notice is that in the first picture Mark Faber is gesticulating wildly and then we turn the page and there he is again on the bottom holding his hand up as if to say Jesus Christ you guys are idiots! Had Mark had a drink or two I wonder...
As mentioned before there is NO ethnic diversity on this roundtable, the closest we get is a very tan Art Samberg. And as for the women Abby Joseph as usual is there- love her but please! Poor Meryl Witmer has been brought in for the recent roundtables, she's easier on the eyes but I've gone into several of her picks with no results. The exception being CHAP steel.
Lots of housing bubble talk, due for a correction talk, this year won't be as good as last year etc.. One uncomfortable fact is brought up that despite being up 14% the US market in euro terms was only up 5%. Lets take a moment and just let that sink in.
Art Samburg is cool. I know of his family up in Westchester and have had some minor dealings with his fund in the past, got to respect this man. His pick -Monsanto again. Had that one last roundtable as well. Although common sense would say that since the push to ethanol has died with lower oil this wouldn't be the best pick, we'll see. He also likes RIO a stock I sold off stupidly @$22 now $27 but I think now dead even with Inco. He also takes a half hearted buy swipe at the for profit college sector: Apollo being his top pick. Also Art makes a great point about Brazil that they never had mortgages before! Now the high end building is on a roll with mortgages he highlights two homebuilders there that trade on the Bovespa. Gafisa & Brascan. Interestingly, Art notes that Sam Zell owns 24% of Gafista. In general, when real estate is involved, just do what Sam Zell does and like him- you will come out well ahead. Lastly Art says he like Baidu.com! Yes at 64 X earnings! Go Art!
I like Scott Black from Delphi Management alot always have> of course he is going with two energy names just as I have been forced to liquidate mine this week! Apache which I like, and Bronco Drilling, a land driller with pretty impressive financials. $13 book value 22% return on equity, 52 land rigs, debt free- rigs are getting $19,000 a day up from $16,000. They will make $84 million or $3.35a share
on 25 million shares for a PE of... 4? Wow. Stock is slightly below it's IPO price! Scott also likes Home Solutions of America (HSOA), boring Altra Holdings (AIMC) and Arrow Electronics (ARW). Home solutions I'm not to crazy about they do better with lots of disaster cleanups and fewer people will be putting big bucks into their homes this year... they also do mold cleanup. Arrow is a good company with two new purchases under it's belt which will add to earnings: InTechnology could add 4 cents to earnings and Key Link systems brings with it $1.6 billion in revenue and 18 to 22 cents in earnings. If nothing else this is a name you will want to use at earnings time!
Out of the roundtable for now, next week the rest of the panel chirp in. Barrons winds down with a bull piece on Yellow trucking saying the stock now depressed at $40 could get to $60. I don't like truckers in the face of what could be a drastically slowing economy one would have to think their pricing will come down...
A quick scan of the rest of our little paper. A graph of EMC pops out. I like what i see there. Seattle Genetics a stock I owned at $5 had a nice pop which I sold into due to a deal with Genentech. Worth a revisit? Maybe, Bill Gates used to be a big holder of the shares, will have to revisit my research on SGEN.
Boston scientific continues a nice little run from where we highlighted it @ $15 a couple issues ago Now up into the $18 zone I think it's sell time. Another winner brought to you by stoney inc. Here's Bronco again (Barrons hint) in the Research reports Section. Raymond james with a $22 target- raising estimates on an acquisition Of Eagle well Service.
In insider buys I see one buyer for KEYW Essex Corp, they are a cool cellular phone intercept company with defense dept overtones, will take a look under the hood here- 28,500 shares is a good step up from an insider.
Lastly the striking price has a piece about predicting profits due to tracking high-volitility options. Stocks that traders think are ripe for big moves. A couple names there Netflix their options imply a one day earnings powered move Up or down of 20%! Boy you need a good crystal ball to make a move here but lately the stock has been in favor. the other name that jumps out is STLD a stock I handled poorly in my account selling just before the stock split. This is set to move 16% one way or another (my guess is down) Sandisk is on the list- that's easy it always sells off at earnings, as well as Silicon labs, Corning, St Jude Med and WR Grace. Grace I like and think that implied volatility of 12% could be resolved to the upside.
OK lets take a recap of our ideas pulled from this issue: Staples // Xerox // Monsanto, Gafisa, Baidu //
Bronco Drilling // Arrow Electronics // KEYW // SGEN // NFLX // EMC //WR Grace...
You Know what? That's a sweet list of ideas to research!
It's the roundtable edition! That time when 12 white people are interviewed about the stock market- always worth a look but usually the ideas are so far fetched and the prices quoted in Thai Botts etc that it often useless.
Lets take the issue from the beginning: Boy Alan Ableson's column is even more dour than usual and for once it's written really poorly. Upon close examination we see this one was penned by Randall W. Forsyth! Is Alan on vacation or " downsized " with the rest of the paper... my subscription is up mr Dow Jones you had better not of pushed dear Alan out the door!
The problem with highlighting the DOW's 24th close at record highs is of course self explanatory... everything is new when blasting off into space; eventually you have to stop counting the stars and just enjoy the ride.
Mr Forsyth notes in choppy sentences that investors Intelligence is 55.4% bullish and 20.7% bearish- seems reasonable to me, however, news from charles schwab is that they are seeing the lowest level of put buying to call buying since last november. Also big board margin debt is near it's 2000 peak that's not good- I've been coasting along without margin- other investors are getting the most bang for their buck. Next a small bit on the 6% drop in oil, in fact- the front contract for oil is off a whopping 31% since last July and Mr. Forsyryth makes the point I've been asking: why oh why is it NOT showing up at the pumps?
Streetwise column is a dud it has one interesting fact that last year nearly 90% of all inflows to stock funds went into overseas funds! I'm left to debate weather that's really possible with another cup of coffee.
Now we run across our first idea Staples. at 17 X earnings it's got the possibility of seeing it's share price appreciate 14% just be getting back to it's normalized PE. 12% growth rate at older stores overall rate close to 15% this is worth a further look.
Next up Xerox this company is in transition phase their black and white printers are declining in sales and a shift away from light lense technology is trouble too. I'm a little negative on the story but there is a weird ending to the piece- that based on options activity last week a rumor was going around that even worse shape Eastman Kodak was going to make a bid for the company... Barrons seems to think staples can go up 25% from here that's a healthy bullish call so we will keep it in the maybe file for now.
Ok into the roundtable and first thing we notice is that in the first picture Mark Faber is gesticulating wildly and then we turn the page and there he is again on the bottom holding his hand up as if to say Jesus Christ you guys are idiots! Had Mark had a drink or two I wonder...
As mentioned before there is NO ethnic diversity on this roundtable, the closest we get is a very tan Art Samberg. And as for the women Abby Joseph as usual is there- love her but please! Poor Meryl Witmer has been brought in for the recent roundtables, she's easier on the eyes but I've gone into several of her picks with no results. The exception being CHAP steel.
Lots of housing bubble talk, due for a correction talk, this year won't be as good as last year etc.. One uncomfortable fact is brought up that despite being up 14% the US market in euro terms was only up 5%. Lets take a moment and just let that sink in.
Art Samburg is cool. I know of his family up in Westchester and have had some minor dealings with his fund in the past, got to respect this man. His pick -Monsanto again. Had that one last roundtable as well. Although common sense would say that since the push to ethanol has died with lower oil this wouldn't be the best pick, we'll see. He also likes RIO a stock I sold off stupidly @$22 now $27 but I think now dead even with Inco. He also takes a half hearted buy swipe at the for profit college sector: Apollo being his top pick. Also Art makes a great point about Brazil that they never had mortgages before! Now the high end building is on a roll with mortgages he highlights two homebuilders there that trade on the Bovespa. Gafisa & Brascan. Interestingly, Art notes that Sam Zell owns 24% of Gafista. In general, when real estate is involved, just do what Sam Zell does and like him- you will come out well ahead. Lastly Art says he like Baidu.com! Yes at 64 X earnings! Go Art!
I like Scott Black from Delphi Management alot always have> of course he is going with two energy names just as I have been forced to liquidate mine this week! Apache which I like, and Bronco Drilling, a land driller with pretty impressive financials. $13 book value 22% return on equity, 52 land rigs, debt free- rigs are getting $19,000 a day up from $16,000. They will make $84 million or $3.35a share
on 25 million shares for a PE of... 4? Wow. Stock is slightly below it's IPO price! Scott also likes Home Solutions of America (HSOA), boring Altra Holdings (AIMC) and Arrow Electronics (ARW). Home solutions I'm not to crazy about they do better with lots of disaster cleanups and fewer people will be putting big bucks into their homes this year... they also do mold cleanup. Arrow is a good company with two new purchases under it's belt which will add to earnings: InTechnology could add 4 cents to earnings and Key Link systems brings with it $1.6 billion in revenue and 18 to 22 cents in earnings. If nothing else this is a name you will want to use at earnings time!
Out of the roundtable for now, next week the rest of the panel chirp in. Barrons winds down with a bull piece on Yellow trucking saying the stock now depressed at $40 could get to $60. I don't like truckers in the face of what could be a drastically slowing economy one would have to think their pricing will come down...
A quick scan of the rest of our little paper. A graph of EMC pops out. I like what i see there. Seattle Genetics a stock I owned at $5 had a nice pop which I sold into due to a deal with Genentech. Worth a revisit? Maybe, Bill Gates used to be a big holder of the shares, will have to revisit my research on SGEN.
Boston scientific continues a nice little run from where we highlighted it @ $15 a couple issues ago Now up into the $18 zone I think it's sell time. Another winner brought to you by stoney inc. Here's Bronco again (Barrons hint) in the Research reports Section. Raymond james with a $22 target- raising estimates on an acquisition Of Eagle well Service.
In insider buys I see one buyer for KEYW Essex Corp, they are a cool cellular phone intercept company with defense dept overtones, will take a look under the hood here- 28,500 shares is a good step up from an insider.
Lastly the striking price has a piece about predicting profits due to tracking high-volitility options. Stocks that traders think are ripe for big moves. A couple names there Netflix their options imply a one day earnings powered move Up or down of 20%! Boy you need a good crystal ball to make a move here but lately the stock has been in favor. the other name that jumps out is STLD a stock I handled poorly in my account selling just before the stock split. This is set to move 16% one way or another (my guess is down) Sandisk is on the list- that's easy it always sells off at earnings, as well as Silicon labs, Corning, St Jude Med and WR Grace. Grace I like and think that implied volatility of 12% could be resolved to the upside.
OK lets take a recap of our ideas pulled from this issue: Staples // Xerox // Monsanto, Gafisa, Baidu //
Bronco Drilling // Arrow Electronics // KEYW // SGEN // NFLX // EMC //WR Grace...
You Know what? That's a sweet list of ideas to research!
