New NAFTA without Canada?

SunTrader said:
As for autos from Canada the majority are from U.S. manufacturers GM/Ford and Chrysler.
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I agree with much of what you said but the point about automobile manufacturing is simply not accurate. Those manufacturers you cite are actually separate Canadian companies. For example, there's GM Canada, Ford Motor Company of Canada, and Honda Canada Inc.. Separate websites, CEO's, staffing, accounting reports, etc.. They open, close, consolidate, and switch assembly and manufacturing sites internationally on a regular basis. For example, GM Europe and GM Australia used to build and ship certain models to the US - not so much anymore.

Nissan moved assembly of the Sentra from Tennessee to Mexico in 2000. GM moved assembly of Silverado crew cab model pickups from Detroit to Mexico several years ago. Ford switched production of the Fusion to Mexico in 2005. Dodge assembles the 1500 series of Ram pickup trucks in Mexico - that happened a few years ago. That's about 500,000 pickup trucks annually that used to be assembled in the United States but are now assembled in Mexico.

From a pure procedural standpoint placing a tariff on General Motors Canada exports to the United States is not at all difficult.

Now, obviously it is in both Canada's and the United State's best interest to come to an agreement and I would like to see that happen. And personally the Canadian Supply Management System gets quite a bit of criticism from the US - where we subsidize farmers as well so IMO that's a bit hypocritical although the US farm subsidies are not as exclusionary and hyper-protectionist as the Canadian system as far as I can tell from reading up on it. There's certainly more free market forces at play in the US dairy industry as compared to the Canadian dairy industry it's fair to say.

But you are mistaken to think that GM and Ford brand and badged vehicles assembled in Canada and auto parts manufactured in Canada and exported to the US are protected from US tariffs.
 
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bone said:
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But you are mistaken to think that GM and Ford badged vehicles assembled in Canada and auto parts manufactured in Canada and exported to the US are protected from US tariffs.
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No I know that are not. That was my point.

Tariffs against Canadian made U.S. owned brands will hurt the U.S. owned brands as well.
 
SunTrader said:
No I know that are not. That was my point.

Tariffs against Canadian made U.S. owned brands will hurt the U.S. owned brands as well.
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Short term I agree completely that Ford and GM would not be happy about it. But there is existing excess automobile capacity available in the United States. It wouldn't be immediate but it could happen sooner than you might think.
 
bone said:
I agree with much of what you said but the point about automobile manufacturing is simply not accurate. Those manufacturers you cite are actually separate Canadian companies. For example, there's GM Canada, Ford Motor Company of Canada, and Honda Canada Inc.. Separate websites, CEO's, staffing, accounting reports, etc.. They open, close, consolidate, and switch assembly and manufacturing sites internationally on a regular basis. For example, GM Europe and GM Australia used to build and ship certain models to the US - not so much anymore.

Nissan moved assembly of the Sentra from Tennessee to Mexico in 2000. GM moved assembly of Silverado crew cab model pickups from Detroit to Mexico several years ago. Ford switched production of the Fusion to Mexico in 2005. Dodge assembles the 1500 series of Ram pickup trucks in Mexico - that happened a few years ago. That's about 500,000 pickup trucks annually that used to be assembled in the United States but are now assembled in Mexico.

From a pure procedural standpoint placing a tariff on General Motors Canada exports to the United States is not at all difficult.

Now, obviously it is in both Canada's and the United State's best interest to come to an agreement and I would like to see that happen. And personally the Canadian Supply Management System gets quite a bit of criticism from the US - where we subsidize farmers as well so IMO that's a bit hypocritical although the US farm subsidies are not as exclusionary and hyper-protectionist as the Canadian system as far as I can tell from reading up on it. There's certainly more free market forces at play in the US dairy industry as compared to the Canadian dairy industry it's fair to say.

But you are mistaken to think that GM and Ford brand and badged vehicles assembled in Canada and auto parts manufactured in Canada and exported to the US are protected from US tariffs.
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Much of what you posted here is deeply flawed so there is no doubt you haven't researched this. From what I've picked up here or there in the news, I can only conclude you are seeing news on Canadian trade issues through a biased lens. Personally, I feel Canada should just walk away rather then deal with an irrational man and let things develop through other channels. The pressure they feel is not from Trump, it's from employees in certain sectors that depend on NA trade. You'll see a lot of noise from the same in the US if things develop certain ways.
 
bone said:
Short term I agree completely that Ford and GM would not be happy about it. But there is existing excess automobile capacity available in the United States. It wouldn't be immediate but it could happen sooner than you might think.
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But again GM, Ford and Fiat owned Chrysler is on both sides of the border. Along with Nissan and Toyota.

How much good does it help them, overall, to use idle capacity here if it then idles some capacity up in Canada? All it really helps is Drumpf with the base.
 
Trump has made a clear error here. This error will cost Trump politically, diplomatically, and some of his credibility.

There was nothing to be gained by his remarks. As I understand it, Trump basically told Canada we need to get moving on trade negotiations, Canada sends people to Washington immediately and Trump then pulls the rug out from under them?

Trump is not going to negotiate in good faith with our trading partners after complaining what bad trade agreements we had before? Most of our trading partners do not have the economic capacity right now or the inclination to agree to a trade agreement that is tilted against them. Wasn't free trade the goal?

I can only imagine what the citizens of our trading partners will be thinking of Trump and the United States after this. American goods and services will become less popular than MAGA hats.

The question I personally have to come to grips with is why would Trump do this? There are no third or forth dimensional chess moves here. Trump stood to gain politically by arranging a fair trade deal, which at one point had the momentum to get done, with one of our key allies and trading partners.

I must assume Trump is an an emotional state related to partisanship on an international scale. Just because Trump may not approve of Trudeau's politics does not mean he should take action that he may see as harming Trudeau politically. Even if you crush someone's hand but break your own finger, you still have a broken finger. These trade negotiations involve more than the potential outcomes of two politicians. It ultimately involves the livelihoods of a great many people on both sides of the border.

One of the great things about Trump is that he is willing to change course quickly when he realizes he made a mistake.

Hopefully Trump will realize his error, explain to interested parties what his rationale was, and apologize to the Canadians for his behavior.

The Canadians and US citizens deserve nothing less.
 
maximumpossiblesuffering said:
Trump has made a clear error here. This error will cost Trump politically, diplomatically, and some of his credibility.
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Not with the base ... and it seems that is all he is ever concerned with. The former reality TV star only cares about "ratings".

As for everyone else, both within and without the country that boat sailed long ago.
 
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