Fibs and TA both work fine for me, and FX is a great market to trade.
What trading methods do you suggest TZ? Fundamentals? Pure price action?
New Member- Wanted to introduce myself (and a few q's)
- Thread starter lindec
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Fibs and TA both work fine for me, and FX is a great market to trade.
What trading methods do you suggest TZ? Fundamentals? Pure price action?
I think the secret is to trade like a machine . Have your system put in your limits and stops and leave it except for days when news releases just stay out. Like today nfp .
if TA doesnt work for you you must be a fundamental trader. What is your reason for entering trades. Is it fundamentals news?
Quote from cabletrader:
In my opinion.....garbage! Sorry TZ
Fibs and TA both work for me, and FX is a geat market to trade.
Yes, Ignoring evidence in favor of an opinion. I see it now.
Original poster, ignore this intervening post. It is what you will be facing from people who do not really know much about reality. But they do have their opinions...
"Works for me" is seldom followed up by "here is the overwhelming proof". IT is founded on beliefs, not reality.
Spend it? What on, a new 42" plasma?
lol, all evidence to the contrary, plenty of my trading blotters posted around these forums, that's reality.
Please provide your 'evidence' that fibs and TA don't work, and that FX is an efficient untradeable market, thanks
What was that? It's just your opinion based on nothing more real than theory? Oh, ok then!
(ps Writing it in large letters doesn't make it accurate, it just magnifies the inaccuracies, lol)
even after u paper trade for a while you will still blow your first 2 or 3 accounts . You need deep pockets for longevity in this business.
Quote from cabletrader:
lol, all evidence to the contrary, plenty of my trading blotters posted around these forums, that's reality.
Please provide your 'evidence' that fibs and TA don't work, and that FX is an efficient untradeable market, thanks
What was that? It's just your opinion based on nothing more real than theory? Oh, ok then!
A)
try a google search, geez!!!. I already included one well regarded work (if you know how to follow a link, above)- they found NONE of thousands of different TA methods had any significant outperformance.
B)
This is one example study, by Cass Business School in London. that looked at the market from 1914 to 2002 at Fib levels (they also studied round numbers). That is 86 years of market performance. This is only one study among others:
http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/st..._in_the_Dow.pdf
Their conclusion:
"Our conclusion must be that there is no significant difference between the frequencies with which price and time ratios occur in cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and frequencies which we would expect to occur at random in such a time series. In our introduction, we noted that empirical evidence from academic studies suggests that not all of technical analysis can be dismissed prima facie. The evidence from this paper suggests that the idea that round fractions and Fibonacci ratios occur in the Dow can be dismissed."
C)
Understand? Strong longterm studies that none of the TA indicators worked. That Fib levels don't work. Must we go on? If you aren't going to supply anything useful but arguments, then get lost.
But, yes you "counter" it with your "personal trading blotter." Can you be THAT utterly cluelessly hopeless? Did you EVER take logic, probability or other evidence?? Anyone offering their personal experience is considered anecdotal and has ZERO basis in reality. .
In case you hadn't noticed this is the Forex Currency Trading forum not the DJIA trading forum, your reference to irrelevant research is of absolutely no value whatsoever to the topic being discussed or the market being traded.
I speak from a practical working knowledge and first-hand experience of trading the FX market using such tools as Fibonacci levels and TA, whereas you speak from unrelated research you've read, and theory.
I'm a pragmatist, you're a theorist, 'nuff said
There are like a 100 papers saying trend following don't work and 100 saying it does. Anyone who goes in with a verdict already when reading these papers will come out with nothing new but just a confirmation of their bias, but an objective analyses of both studies along with your own personal studies will release a couple of gems.
Regarding TA, i think anyone who believes that it does not work just has not found a way to make it work since TA does not work on its own. It was believed that you cannot beat the House at black jack until a little man known as Eddy thorpy came along.
I believe that it will not be fun for everyone to believe that technical analyses works since there will not be many fundamental guys left. Therefore i usually let them be and say that there are different ways to skin a cat, because being an economist i can say that fundamental analyses works even though there is good research which says that fundamental analyses in FX is only useful for time horizons of 3yrs
but many have found it to work in the short term.
There is also a paper done in the early 90's by mark p. taylor and helen allen "The use of TA in the fx market" which was a survey on what do bank traders use, and surprisingly most use TA. Another good paper is " how do UK fx dealers think their market operates?" by yin-wong cheung and some others.
It is the divesity of our beliefs that make the market a beautiful place.
Regarding TA, i think anyone who believes that it does not work just has not found a way to make it work since TA does not work on its own. It was believed that you cannot beat the House at black jack until a little man known as Eddy thorpy came along.
I believe that it will not be fun for everyone to believe that technical analyses works since there will not be many fundamental guys left. Therefore i usually let them be and say that there are different ways to skin a cat, because being an economist i can say that fundamental analyses works even though there is good research which says that fundamental analyses in FX is only useful for time horizons of 3yrs
but many have found it to work in the short term.
There is also a paper done in the early 90's by mark p. taylor and helen allen "The use of TA in the fx market" which was a survey on what do bank traders use, and surprisingly most use TA. Another good paper is " how do UK fx dealers think their market operates?" by yin-wong cheung and some others.
It is the divesity of our beliefs that make the market a beautiful place.