New market wizard

P

pinetboltz

if jack schwager is writing a new market wizard book, maybe he should interview this guy:

"Take the case of Alan Aronoff, a 47-year-old San Franciscan who has dabbled in the music business most of his life, playing in bands and, at one point, owning a private nightclub...After the Bitcoin exchange he was using got hacked, Aronoff defected to Kraken with $8,500 in Bitcoin and began leveraging his positions..He began watching the BTC/USD and ETH/USD markets 16 hours a day, sleeping as little as possible and barely leaving his house so that every time his gains hit certain thresholds, he could trade. "I'm kind of OCD," he says. Within six months, he turned his $8,500 into $7.5 million--a return of 88,000%."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/07/10/return-of-the-day-traders/#5f8af0bd6ff6

ok, so bitcoin is up 7x this year, ethereum is up 35x, but he was able to not only trade the insane volatility, but use leverage to juice up returns to 880x. this must take some serious skill to finesse, esp. with peak-to-trough retracements in BTC and ETH at 40-50%

ur thoughts on how he put on high leverage at just the right points, w/o getting caught / being forced to liquidate in the dips?
 
Didn't Tim Sykes make 135.000% in 2 weeks in penny stocks as well?

The point I'm making... scammers are all over this shit....

So while possible, I vote #1 @Visaria
 
well, ok so it's impossible to rule out #1 definitively without having access to their private accounts.

but then again, maybe he didn't lie, maybe he even understated his profits, and maybe there are many others like him who chose to stay anonymous.

bitcoin alone had its market cap skyrocket to 100+ billion, that's literally 100+ billion increase in wealth for its pool of participants. eg. if some small-cap stock became 1/7 the size of Apple it'd create lots of millionaires as well.

as for #2) i don't think it was *luck* in the form of randomly entering trades & hoping for the best. sure, it might work for a single one-off earnings bet, but to roll up 8.5k to 7.5mm on high leverage atop an extremely volatile market that moves like crazy even intraday? it'd be like saying Michael Marcus, who ran up a $30k account to $100m trading in the commodities markets, also did so purely on luck. Maybe it was *luck* in that he found a very effective technique for trading, but it's prob not random trading.

so my guess is #3, or as they say, there's a method to the madness...
 
pinetboltz said:
power law distribution...
More...

It's easy to say power law distribution. that in every select grouping, someone has to stick out stellarly.

But this is ET...we only care about the Elite trader(s). ...to study them, and analyze them, -- what makes them so divinely special...while the rest of the herd sheep wander around aimlessly to their inevitable grave demises.

Certainly that one or few traders, didn't accomplish that feat completely by sheer dumb luck.

But to answer your question quickly: the Perfect Storm.
The right guy, in the right environment and variables, with the right vision, and implementation and execution abilities. along with a little thing called leverage to really blast his returns with plutonium.

There are perfect storms all around you, everyday...just lingering. -- Just waiting for its Neo, The One, to come and make it all happen.
 
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lawrence-lugar said:
It's easy to say power law distribution. that in every select grouping, someone has to stick out stellarly.
More...

precisely. in such a distribution the trading results of market wizards are on a magnitude that is much greater than allowed for in the realm of possibility by a normal curve...ok, so back to the original question, how do u think this guy did it??
 
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