Quote from makloda:
The problem is something doesn't have to be a bubble in order to go down 75% in value. The same holds true the other direction. Rogers may be certain something is a bubble, but unfortunately that doesn't guarantee it will implode anytime soon.
Check his videos from July 2008 where he was chuckling when some CNBC knucklehead asked if commodities were a bubble "Oh Maria, I see absolutely nobody being overly bullish on commodities!! There is no bubble!!!". And they still managed to drop like a stone.
If Rogers says something is or is not a bubble by his definition, what value does that information really hold? It's as good as a coin toss.
Rogers view on the commodities sector is that it is in a long term multi decade bull market like the one stocks have enjoyed say from when the DOW was at 1K untill it hit 14K 2 years ago.
Why? You know why, if you have seen one explanation you have seen them all.
But anyway, the man has writen several books, dozens of articles where he goes deeper into his love for commodities (and his economic views) than the format of a 5 minute TV interview would allow.
You can say what you want about Rogers but claiming he offers no substance to his view on commodities is a claim lacking substance in itself really.
So, to those who feel his books were crap, his historical comparing is of the mark and his love for commodities is myopic I would say don't feel sad.
There is a guru out there for each and anyone of us, you just need to stop trying so hard!
On a sidenote I would like to add I remember you reffering to Rogers as the man without a single losing trade but that's not exactly true.
In one of his books he got offered some diamonds worth something like 30K the African local seller claimed, he declined but the seller insisted and he bought them for 5K, turns out it was glass!
It was a good lesson in only investing in what you really understand. Thank you for that Jim.
On a more serious note, in his book hot commodities, he labels gold as one of his least favourite commodities due to the suply demand situation and all of the mystic loons involved who think gold has special power or something.
Turns out he was wrong, since gold outperformed pretty much all of the other commodities this last decade.
So there you have it, the man's Achiles!
