Thanks Dustin. I'm a raw newbie. Entered the market in June and saw a 40k gain diminish to a 10K loss today. I'm a recovereing buy and holder, looking to learn about trading, so I'm all ears. Working feverishly to learn technical stuff (I'm solid on the fundamentals, with an acctg. degree and years of commercial banking financial analysis) since it does seem to me that this new age market is about keeping up with the big boys (HFT, dark pools, etc.) That's about it for now, but thanks for giving me a good thread to get a handle into this group.
New guys, now is not the time
- Thread starter Dustin
- Start date
1. Sympathies for your loss.
2. It is actually 10 times as much as you think: 40K+ 10=50K. Then multiply by two because you could have been on the side of the guys who made from you that 50k.
So your loss with opportunity + previous high is ONE HUNDRED K.
3. How much would have paid to avoid the 100K loss? How about the 10K loss?
4. There is nothing new in markets. You just realized there are new things. Hedge funds point is also off target. They lose more than you on average.
5. A Rule of thumb: One fat guy feeding on 9 guys, as long as markets fluctuate. Your job= be among the fat guys.
2. It is actually 10 times as much as you think: 40K+ 10=50K. Then multiply by two because you could have been on the side of the guys who made from you that 50k.
So your loss with opportunity + previous high is ONE HUNDRED K.
3. How much would have paid to avoid the 100K loss? How about the 10K loss?
4. There is nothing new in markets. You just realized there are new things. Hedge funds point is also off target. They lose more than you on average.
5. A Rule of thumb: One fat guy feeding on 9 guys, as long as markets fluctuate. Your job= be among the fat guys.
Thanks for the trade report, Dustin. It sucks when these periods happen. Hang in there.
Kinda good for me since I've been on the sidelines for the last few months. (time issues)
Thankfully, there's plenty of drunk guys still playing poker in Atlantic City. The summer was better, but the Fall hasn't been bad either.
Kinda good for me since I've been on the sidelines for the last few months. (time issues)
Thankfully, there's plenty of drunk guys still playing poker in Atlantic City. The summer was better, but the Fall hasn't been bad either.
For anyone else who is feeling dejected by this market take a look at this.... Call me sentimental but I always love speeches like this to give me a pick me up when everything goes to shit. This is one of the most motivating speeches of all time. This applies to trading/life in general in so many ways. Good luck and good trading to everyone! And please try to make sure, especially in this environment, that you fight for that inch...cause it will definately make the difference between winning and losing...or living and dying...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rFx6OFooCs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rFx6OFooCs
I totally feel this thread and the comments by Dustin. And I think the point is something I have come to call "serial correlation". If I am any judge, you trade a similar style to me, except I focus on indexes and sector plays. I've been at it about 10 yrs. And I would say, October 08 thru March 09 (including the rally in March) was about the best trading environment I have ever seen.
The idea with "serial correlation" is that people are placing trades in a decision-making framework that draws heavily on what price has just done. In other words, the market isn't a bunch of individual rational decision-makers who feel that the last hour of price movement is irrelevant for their long-term view. Instead, it's a sweaty crowd, reacting and acting like a bunch of people not sure what to do, and who will take their cue from what others are doing. The action just threads together in a chain of emotion. And it has a character that you can feel. And that sort of environment, for those who have been at this for a while and seen a few thousand trading sessions, tick for tick, is such a gift.
I think we will see some more of that into year end, though I think it comes in both directions. The good news is that uncertainty, upside and downside, has been building up towards a release of emotional decision-making. And I would bet we see some real nice swings in the next 6-8 weeks.
The idea with "serial correlation" is that people are placing trades in a decision-making framework that draws heavily on what price has just done. In other words, the market isn't a bunch of individual rational decision-makers who feel that the last hour of price movement is irrelevant for their long-term view. Instead, it's a sweaty crowd, reacting and acting like a bunch of people not sure what to do, and who will take their cue from what others are doing. The action just threads together in a chain of emotion. And it has a character that you can feel. And that sort of environment, for those who have been at this for a while and seen a few thousand trading sessions, tick for tick, is such a gift.
I think we will see some more of that into year end, though I think it comes in both directions. The good news is that uncertainty, upside and downside, has been building up towards a release of emotional decision-making. And I would bet we see some real nice swings in the next 6-8 weeks.
I think the market always offers opportunities. Right now I'm on a good streak and this has actually been my best year. It all depends on what strategy one uses, sometimes it will be hot sometimes cold. But at any single time no matter how hard you think the market is, someone will be having a hot hand.
I know days for ex I cant make a cent but I have buddies who trade differently than me raking it in.
I know days for ex I cant make a cent but I have buddies who trade differently than me raking it in.
excellent but I prefer this because i lived through it, the most inspirsational speech ive ever seen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePXlkqkFH6s
AIG, LVS? MFE today? I'm assuming you daytrade stocks and there's plenty of opportunity. I know a lot of prop desks are struggling but they haven't made the necessary adjustments.
And yes, FAS FAZ do offer some good moves you just have to figure out how to trade them (trade FAS, watch underlying actual index for spots on the tape. Strange, but it works.)
And yes, FAS FAZ do offer some good moves you just have to figure out how to trade them (trade FAS, watch underlying actual index for spots on the tape. Strange, but it works.)
God help the black boxer in this market.
Discretionary trading is the way I'm going it here for me. And I was always a solid systems guy.
If you learn how to trade in good times, you'll get left behind when the market turns.
Learn how to trade in bad times (and keep your skin) and you will profit.
Adjust risk accordingly.
Discretionary trading is the way I'm going it here for me. And I was always a solid systems guy.
If you learn how to trade in good times, you'll get left behind when the market turns.
Learn how to trade in bad times (and keep your skin) and you will profit.
Adjust risk accordingly.