New Gold and Silver Journal

[Handle123]

It does sound like we have somewhat similar trading philosophies. I don't hedge much. I'd rather just start with very small positions and pyramid aggressively. I'm not sure what you are asking with the 5k to 10k question.

As far as the COT that is about 1/5 of what I'm using to make my sentiment decisions on gold. I don't think it is that great a tool when used solely on its own. I also use the Hulbert sentiment index, amount of rydex mutual fund assets devoted to precious metals, and a few others. I use internet forums as a less formal, less quantifiable way of measuring sentiment as well.

I follow close to 50 future markets, So when I put on my position, I have a target where I take profit on half position and it is either 2,5, or 10k, before I use to just keep entire position till I got either exit violation or reversal. But what happened too often, especially in Indexes at these much higher levels, say ES tops which it did and goes down 40 points from entry, now I take that on half position, each market has it's own first target, T-Bonds, Notes, energies is 10k, often comes down to margins, I factored long ago as to what the margin was how much the first target was. I have not changed it in fifteen years.

I don't add-on aggressively, I require deep retracements and depending on the options will tell me what is safe amount of futures that can be placed on some markets. As I have gotten older, just have gotten much more conservative, much more risk adverse.

 

[actionzip54]

I follow close to 50 future markets, So when I put on my position, I have a target where I take profit on half position and it is either 2,5, or 10k, before I use to just keep entire position till I got either exit violation or reversal. But what happened too often, especially in Indexes at these much higher levels, say ES tops which it did and goes down 40 points from entry, now I take that on half position, each market has it's own first target, T-Bonds, Notes, energies is 10k, often comes down to margins, I factored long ago as to what the margin was how much the first target was. I have not changed it in fifteen years.

I don't add-on aggressively, I require deep retracements and depending on the options will tell me what is safe amount of futures that can be placed on some markets. As I have gotten older, just have gotten much more conservative, much more risk adverse.

I do take profits on the way up. I don't have set targets though I use a combination of experience and technicals to take profits. If I think fundamentals/ sentiment are looking great for a trade I'll hold for a while before considering taking profits on a part of my position. I guess I'm not really adding aggressively because I start with such small positions. This, I feel like, helps to satiate my appetite for risk which was a problem early in my trading process.

 

[actionzip54]

You say you look for 1) volume explosion and then 2) big volume starts to come into a trade it's usually a top or bottom.

Can you clarify and also volume traits you look for - to enter.

Because I haven't seen any real difference in volume - so far - off the Oct 6th bottom.

Take this all with a grain of salt because I don't feel like my edge is in how I enter a trade. To me my edge is finding extremes in sentiment and good fundamentals. I.E. the crowd is wrong and I'm able to cheaply take the other side of it.

As far as volume it is tricky because to me it can mean a higher probability of continuation in the future or a reversal. It's important to take it all in context imo. For example, if I look at my sentiment indicators and they are showing panic and I will look for a high volume move in the direction of the panic and attempt to fade it. I usually try to wait for a daily reversal bar but I don't always do that. Again, a lot of it is just experience. Now, when I'm looking for a continuation in the meat of a move or after a bottom, or likely bottom, has already occurred I will look for a volume explosion/ large price range and then a slow down in range and volume to look for a place to buy or sell.

Hope that makes sense. I'm not always looking for volume confirmation either. The reason behind buying @ ~1190 was the support of the April '13/ Jan. '14 lows in gold.

 

[actionzip54]

Wild equity markets right now and gold just continues to trade a little higher everyday. Still have my same positions on and I may add a little to my small miners position in the next couple days.

 

[actionzip54]

Still in the same positions, still hating the GDX. Can't let it go just yet.

 

[eurusdzn]

6 months from now you may read a plausible theory of what transpired in gold as we speak.
Someone will make sense of the PA. Uncertainty and the Mamis thing in play here. What else can you do?

Bull run in bonds is a prime example. Now i read from professionals that banks have been large buyers
Of treasuries in 2014.
True or not... I dont know but the opportunity was there for us all.

 

[Handle123]

I am still long in Silver, but never got out of the short Gold and made two attempts on shorts in part couple weeks, first once was breakeven after losses taken in options and went short again couple days ago on higher highs than first attempt and hedged. I still have both in downtrends, but it is what we do.

 

[actionzip54]

Im still bullish and will consider adding to my mgc but probably won't be to quick in doing it with the fed meeting coming up next week.

 

[SunTrader]

If 1233 doesn't hold next support(s) I see are 1223, 1209 and 1191.

If it does then resistance(s) at 1240, 1249 and 1268

Bold being the key ones.

And probabilities point to support being the ones that should be touched soon.

 

[actionzip54]

Sold my 2 gdx for .20.

Not necessarily bearish yet on the miners but considering it would have to trade 22.50 by nov. 7 to breakeven there is no sense in just pissing away that last bit on a prayer. I'll save it to give me a little more cushion