NEW...going BK or recover?

T

traderich

anyone else following NEW lately?

Curious what anyone else here thinks who is following it. Seems like there are BK rumors floating around, but nothing official from the company.

Seems like I have heard this before with other companies, most recently last few months with GM and of course nothing came of it.

The balance sheet looks fine with NEW and although late payments are up across the board, I don't see that shutting down this company.

Seems as though its across the board, others like NFI, and IMH, etc. etc. are also getting hammered.

I'd be more concerned if the others were booming and NEW was bombing out.

Comments?
 
Quote from traderich:


The balance sheet looks fine with NEW and although late payments are up across the board, I don't see that shutting down this company.
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"Financial Information
Disclaimer:
In light of New Century Financial Corporation's February 7, 2007 news release (New Century Financial Corporation to Restate Financial Statements for the quarters Ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2006), the financial information related to the quarters ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2006 should not be relied upon and is included on this Web site for historical archive purposes only."

http://www.ncen.com/investor_relations/financial_information/index.html
 
Did you look at the dividend payouts the past 2 years?

Yes, they can and may have fudged some numbers, that will be decided later, but how do they fabricate money and pay out real dividends like they did the past 2 years????

That was real money being paid out, no doubt.

If they do go BK, it will be the most sudden BK I have ever seen.
 
yea, going BK just like ACF was suppose to do when it hit rock bottom on March 11, 2003 at $1.55/share. I wonder what ACF (Americredit) is at right now?.....any guesses....oh by the way..they deal with car loans to folks with bad credit!

I wish I had kept all the published reports of how 'scary' things were for ACF then. Not to mention MXT (Metris Company) .. a sub-prime lender to hispanics. You won't find the ticker anymore, MXT some how managed to recover from 1.25/share to...ah...don't choke on this...north of $15/share when it accepted a buyout offer.

I hope you just short these stocks and cover after you make about a buck, because that's all you will get. The last dollar will never happen and if you don't cover, I will be writing you another note about this when its all said and done and this BK crap is old news.

peace.
 
Quote from traderich:

anyone else following NEW lately?

Curious what anyone else here thinks who is following it. Seems like there are BK rumors floating around, but nothing official from the company.

Seems like I have heard this before with other companies, most recently last few months with GM and of course nothing came of it.

The balance sheet looks fine with NEW and although late payments are up across the board, I don't see that shutting down this company.

Seems as though its across the board, others like NFI, and IMH, etc. etc. are also getting hammered.

I'd be more concerned if the others were booming and NEW was bombing out.

Comments?
More...


I do see a significant difference between these companies and those companies in 2003 which managed to turn around their businesses.....that difference was a FED that was going out of its way to keep the economy moving forward. This time might be different in that the FED is doing what it takes to hit the brakes...and we all know they can't engineer a soft landing, and will over do it, and send the country into a recession which will smack housing, employment, and put these businesses out of business.

Another insight, the 03' plays reminded me of the plays made by Sir John right before WWII, massive government spending helped save those companies, 03' seems to have the combination of both the FED and goverment spending. I don't see that going forward.

Either way, risking 20k to make 500k is a pretty smart play and if you believe the soft landing will be engineered, and housing has hit the bottom and won't put this country into a serious recession, you can make out like a bandit.

Just putting my thoughts to paper here.
 
Quote from traderich:

yea, going BK just like ACF was suppose to do when it hit rock bottom on March 11, 2003 at $1.55/share. I wonder what ACF (Americredit) is at right now?.....any guesses....oh by the way..they deal with car loans to folks with bad credit!

I wish I had kept all the published reports of how 'scary' things were for ACF then. Not to mention MXT (Metris Company) .. a sub-prime lender to hispanics. You won't find the ticker anymore, MXT some how managed to recover from 1.25/share to...ah...don't choke on this...north of $15/share when it accepted a buyout offer.

I hope you just short these stocks and cover after you make about a buck, because that's all you will get. The last dollar will never happen and if you don't cover, I will be writing you another note about this when its all said and done and this BK crap is old news.

peace.
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That's an excellent point, I wish I had the knews leading up to those events as well. Would certainly help to put together a timeline, and a sentiment analysis.
 
Quote from traderich:

If they do go BK, it will be the most sudden BK I have ever seen.
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A year and a half ago Refco (RFX) went from IPO to bankruptcy in a little over 2 months.
 
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