New Fox News poll.Trump getting his butt kicked
- Thread starter Tony Stark
- Start date
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/28/21157803/trump-fox-news-poll-losing-to-biden-sanders-bloomberg
Trump lashes out at Fox News for new poll showing him losing to all the Democratic candidates
The president didn’t appreciate the reality check.
- By Aaron Rupar
- on February 28, 2020 2:30 pm
President Donald Trump lashed out on Friday at the network that normally covers him so favorably over a new national poll that shows him losing hypothetical head-to-head popular vote matchups against all six of the top Democratic presidential candidates.
“Worst Polls, just like in 2016 when they were so far off the mark, are the @FoxNews Polls,” Trump tweeted on Friday morning.
That tweet came 37 minutes after Fox News displayed a graphic on the air highlighting the results of a new network poll that shows Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Mike Bloomberg beating him handily, with Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar leading him by spreads that are within the margin of error.
Fox News
As is the case with most everything Fox News broadcasts, Trump was apparently watching. And he apparently didn’t appreciate the reminder about it not in fact being the case that a majority of the country loves him.
His attack on Fox News serves as a reminder that despite a rough-and-tumble and still-uncertain Democratic primary, he’s eminently beatable in November.
While it’s obviously possible for Trump to repeat what he did in 2016 and win the election even if he loses the popular vote, there’s almost no chance of him losing the popular vote by a deficit of this magnitude against Biden, Sanders, or Bloomberg and still prevailing in the Electoral College. (Some other polls have been more favorable to Trump’s odds.)
Related
Trump’s Colorado rally featured an extended meltdown over 30 seconds of critical Fox News coverage
And considering the poll was conducted during the early part of a week that saw a historic stock market slide amid concerns about the coronavirus pandemic and the Trump administration’s capacity for dealing with it, there’s reason to believe the president’s standing isn’t improving anytime soon. Of course, we’re still months from the general election, and it’s worth remembering that Hillary Clinton also had a healthy lead over Trump at this point in the 2016 election cycle.
Still, the poll is mostly bad news for Trump. But instead of doing some self-reflection, he’s doing what he’s in the habit of doing and attacking the messenger.
Despite what Trump would have you believe, Fox News polls are reliable
While Fox News’s on-air programming is known for its occasionally absurd pro-Trump spin, its polling is as reputable as it gets. Trump, however, hasn’t been shy about indicating that he thinks the network should be rigging polls to make him look better.
Trump’s suggestion that Fox News polling shouldn’t be taken seriously because they were off in 2016 is a mistaken one. The network’s final 2016 poll found Hillary Clinton leading Trump by a 4-point spread (48 percent to 44 percent) that was quite close to Clinton’s ultimately margin of victory in the popular vote (48 percent to 46 percent). This election cycle, Fox News has consistently found Trump trailing the top candidates vying for the Democratic nomination.
Who that nominee will be remains an open question. Fox News’s new poll is its first this election cycle that shows Biden slipping out of the national frontrunner spot, with Sanders taking the lead.
Fox News
While the poll shows Trump lagging behind each of the top Democratic candidates, it also shows that voters believe Trump will win a second term. Fifty-six percent of respondents said they think Trump will be reelected — a 12 percent increase from last October.
But what voters think will happen is less important than how they plan to vote. And while Trump may not want to believe it — especially coming as it does from a network from which he expects blind loyalty — the reality is that Fox News finds that a majority of registered voters (52 percent) are already saying they’ve either definitely (45 percent) or probably (7 percent) made up their minds to vote for someone else
PROFESSOR WHO PREDICTED SEVEN OUT OF LAST EIGHT ELECTIONS SAYS NEW FOX NEWS POLL RATINGS ARE 'TERRIBLE' FOR TRUMP
A political professor renowned for accurately reading the runes for previous presidential contests has said a Fox News poll showing Donald Trump trailing the main Democratic contenders in a head-to-head is a bad sign for the incumbent leader.
Allan Lichtman is a political historian at American University in Washington who helped create a model that has correctly predicted the winner of seven of the last eight U.S. presidential elections.
Lichtman tweeted his response to a Fox News poll whose focus was on the race for the Democratic nomination.
Professor at American University, Allan Lichtman, says latest poll figures spell bad news for President Trump. Lichtman is known for his ability to predict presidential races.PAUL J. RICHARDS/GETTY IMAGES
However, it also found that in a hypothetical head-to-head between Trump and a Democratic nominee, former vice president Joe Biden and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg were ahead of Trump by eight points, while Vermont's Bernie Sanders was also ahead of the incumbent.
Allan Lichtman@AllanLichtman
https://twitter.com/AllanLichtman/status/1233403643505840133
Latest national poll from @realDonaldTrump's favorite Fox News is bad news for him. Biden and Bloomberg lead him by 8 points, Sanders by 7 points. In no match-up does Trump get more than 43 percent of the vote! A terrible result for an incumbent president.
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8:48 AM - Feb 28, 2020
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Two other Democratic contenders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg also had a three-point advantage over Trump in the poll of 1,000 registered voters reached by landline or cell phone between February 23 to 26, which had a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points.
Lichtman tweeted: "Latest national poll from @realDonaldTrump's favorite Fox News is bad news for him. Biden and Bloomberg lead him by 8 points, Sanders by 7 points. In no match-up does Trump get more than 43 percent of the vote! A terrible result for an incumbent president."
U.S. President Donald Trump is pictured in the Cabinet Room at the White House February 27, 2020 in Washington, DC. A Fox News poll spells bad news for the president, a political professor has said.CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES
Lichtman is known as pioneering a system that has been effective in picking the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Known as "The Keys to the White House," it takes into account 13 historical factors and used an adapted system that originally predicted earthquakes.
He successfully picked Trump in 2016 relatively early and his only failure going back to 1984 was in 2000 when he predicted a victory for Al Gore, the Democrat contender who won the popular vote, but narrowly lost the electoral college to George W Bush.
He also wrote the book The Case for Impeachment, which laid out the case for the president's removal from office.
According to FiveThirtyEight's average of national polling, Sanders remains the frontrunner to win the primary, polling at 28.9 percent, comfortably ahead of Biden at 16.7 percent and Bloomberg at 15.4 percent.
Dr. Thomas Gift, assistant professor in political science at University College London (UCL), told Newsweek that although it is usually a safer move for the Democrats to choose a more centrist candidate to take on Trump "the Sanders campaign does make a reasonable case that choosing a centrist risks diminishing excitement among the liberal base."
Newsweek has contacted Trump's campaign team for comment.
A political professor renowned for accurately reading the runes for previous presidential contests has said a Fox News poll showing Donald Trump trailing the main Democratic contenders in a head-to-head is a bad sign for the incumbent leader.
Allan Lichtman is a political historian at American University in Washington who helped create a model that has correctly predicted the winner of seven of the last eight U.S. presidential elections.
Lichtman tweeted his response to a Fox News poll whose focus was on the race for the Democratic nomination.
Professor at American University, Allan Lichtman, says latest poll figures spell bad news for President Trump. Lichtman is known for his ability to predict presidential races.PAUL J. RICHARDS/GETTY IMAGES
However, it also found that in a hypothetical head-to-head between Trump and a Democratic nominee, former vice president Joe Biden and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg were ahead of Trump by eight points, while Vermont's Bernie Sanders was also ahead of the incumbent.
Allan Lichtman@AllanLichtman
https://twitter.com/AllanLichtman/status/1233403643505840133
Latest national poll from @realDonaldTrump's favorite Fox News is bad news for him. Biden and Bloomberg lead him by 8 points, Sanders by 7 points. In no match-up does Trump get more than 43 percent of the vote! A terrible result for an incumbent president.
372
8:48 AM - Feb 28, 2020
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241 people are talking about this
Two other Democratic contenders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg also had a three-point advantage over Trump in the poll of 1,000 registered voters reached by landline or cell phone between February 23 to 26, which had a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points.
Lichtman tweeted: "Latest national poll from @realDonaldTrump's favorite Fox News is bad news for him. Biden and Bloomberg lead him by 8 points, Sanders by 7 points. In no match-up does Trump get more than 43 percent of the vote! A terrible result for an incumbent president."
U.S. President Donald Trump is pictured in the Cabinet Room at the White House February 27, 2020 in Washington, DC. A Fox News poll spells bad news for the president, a political professor has said.CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES
Lichtman is known as pioneering a system that has been effective in picking the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Known as "The Keys to the White House," it takes into account 13 historical factors and used an adapted system that originally predicted earthquakes.
He successfully picked Trump in 2016 relatively early and his only failure going back to 1984 was in 2000 when he predicted a victory for Al Gore, the Democrat contender who won the popular vote, but narrowly lost the electoral college to George W Bush.
He also wrote the book The Case for Impeachment, which laid out the case for the president's removal from office.
According to FiveThirtyEight's average of national polling, Sanders remains the frontrunner to win the primary, polling at 28.9 percent, comfortably ahead of Biden at 16.7 percent and Bloomberg at 15.4 percent.
Dr. Thomas Gift, assistant professor in political science at University College London (UCL), told Newsweek that although it is usually a safer move for the Democrats to choose a more centrist candidate to take on Trump "the Sanders campaign does make a reasonable case that choosing a centrist risks diminishing excitement among the liberal base."
Newsweek has contacted Trump's campaign team for comment.
Not even in the top 20 of largest percentage points. The first trading day after 9/11 the dow dropped 684 points but it was 7.13% of the dow. The Dow would have to drop nearly 1800 points at this level to make it into the top 20. We're nowhere near that level of a drop. It would have to drop 5,745 points to take the top spot.
You either understand this, or you don't belong on a trading site.
Who said anything about percentages . . . . At the end of a trading day your futures gain/loss is calculated by the number of points move x number of contracts you hold and adjusted accordingly.
It's not like that with penny stocks , so you have nothing to worry about there.
Oh interesting...so penny stocks gains/losses aren't calculated by number of points move x number of shares held?
Don't play word games with me boy.
I was just saying , your penny stock could go from 2cents to 3cents and you'd make a 50% profit instantly , while that's not so common with the Dow.
and you get to do your Maga dance.
.
and you get to do your Maga dance.
.He was calling you a little chiseller boy.
And 8 of the top 12 point gains in Dow History happened under Trump.
In just 3 years.
Great President - or Greatest President?