New Coronavirus Variant (Omicron; B.1.1529) a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa

Arnie said:
I think this may be a blessing in disguise. So far, all cases appear to be mild. If that stays the same then lots of folks will get infected with this less severe variant, leading to real herd immunity.
And just to be clear, I'm vaccinated and getting ready to get booster. Having trouble finding J&J booster and don't want to mix vaccines.
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That's a possibility if enough "not vaccinated" people get infected with a less deadly mutant variant that only causes mild symptoms in young adults.

Here's the problem, how does this mutant variant behave in older adults, children or in those that are immune-compromise with another different disease not typically seen in Africa ?

Another problem, if a less deadly mutant variant is allowed to move through the not vaccinated population...you will increase the risk of another Variant of Concern to be born...possibly more deadly.

I'm too fully vaccinated and not qualified for boosters until early next year unless Canada changes its qualification requirements. Yet, I do have the option of taking a quick flight to Chicago to get a booster shot and then fly back.

Unfortunately, I'm not an advocate of traveling (international flights) during a Pandemic because it's a common route for virus to jump in the gene pool and then mutate when it interacts with a new host.

Thus, it's not an emergency for me. I can wait for boosters to be approved here in Canada for my age group...regardless, I still must wait 6 months after my full vaccination to get a booster.

Until then, we just need to cross our fingers that Omicron's molecular behavior only causes mild symptoms regardless of vaccination status or not vaccinated.

wrbtrader
 
ipatent said:
Both US cases so far were fully vaccinated.
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Travelers that didn't have much interaction with the public after returning and that then self-quarantined upon feeling ill instead of waiting for a Covid positive test.

Most likely they haven't been spreading the virus for us to know how it impacts others that are vaccinated (breakthrough infections) or those that are not vaccinated.

We'll know more in a few weeks about Omicron. It should do what the other mutant variants have done...
  • Those vaccinated (mild symptoms)
  • Those immuno-compromise (stronger symptoms)
  • Those not vaccinated (severe symptoms...possible hospitalization, ICU admission)
Simply, most of the hospitalization and ICU admission should still be those not vaccinated if it follows the same path as the other prior Variants of Concern.
  • A mutant variant that can threaten someone that's vaccinated...it will be more threatening to someone that's not vaccinated...this is the trend that needs to be broken here in North America because it's a threat to our Hospital System.
Yet, I rather those not vaccinated break the trend and only have mild symptoms too. Thus, our hospital capacity will never be threatened by Omicron. The WHO will then demote Omicron down to a Variant to Monitor.

wrbtrader
 
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wrbtrader said:
Travelers that didn't have much interaction with the public after returning and that then self-quarantined upon feeling ill instead of waiting for a Covid positive test.

Most likely they haven't been spreading the virus for us to know how it impacts others that are vaccinated (breakthrough infections) or those that are not vaccinated.

We'll know more in a few weeks about Omicron. It should do what the other mutant variants have done...
  • Those vaccinated (mild symptoms)
  • Those immuno-compromise (stronger symptoms)
  • Those not vaccinated (severe symptoms...possible hospitalization, ICU admission)
Simply, most of the hospitalization and ICU admission should still be those not vaccinated if it follows the same path as the other prior Variants of Concern.
  • A mutant variant that can threaten someone that's vaccinated...it will be more threatening to someone that's not vaccinated...this is the trend that needs to be broken here in North America because it's a threat to our Hospital System.
Yet, I rather those not vaccinated break the trend and only have mild symptoms too. Thus, our hospital capacity will never be threatened by Omicron. The WHO will then demote Omicron down to a Variant to Monitor.

wrbtrader
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I don’t know about this. A lot of the reports is initial but the initial scientific based fears were omicron had mutations that seemed to signal immune escape and we are seeing immune escape in these cases so far.

Statistically, this could just be “noise” at the front end of the data set though but if it does signal immune escape we are in for another long slog of a winter. Making testing available will be very helpful if we can get everyone rowing in the same direction for once.
 
ipatent said:
Both US cases so far were fully vaccinated.
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Both cases in the USA were people fully vaccinated.
Because of Faucis style of overreacting and following politics and not science....should he shut down the vaccination program to make sure this virus is not attacking the vaccinated
 
Mercor said:
Both cases in the USA were people fully vaccinated.
Because of Faucis style of overreacting and following politics and not science....should he shut down the vaccination program to make sure this virus is not attacking the vaccinated
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Yet nearly all the serious hospitalized Omicron cases in South Africa are unvaccinated.
 
UsualName said:
I don’t know about this. A lot of the reports is initial but the initial scientific based fears were omicron had mutations that seemed to signal immune escape and we are seeing immune escape in these cases so far.

Statistically, this could just be “noise” at the front end of the data set though but if it does signal immune escape we are in for another long slog of a winter. Making testing available will be very helpful if we can get everyone rowing in the same direction for once.
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This is not an "immune escape" because there's not enough data.

I'm not sure why people have difficulty in understanding they're still studying the data and they'll have the results in several weeks. Yet, this really is not the issue.
  • The issue is the symptoms and result...so far...just mild illness.
In fact, let us pretend their conclusion in several weeks will be that it is in fact "immune escape" but also "mild symptoms"...
  • Omicron will be downgraded to a Variant to Monitor.
Look at the big picture...you can have 2000 cases of not vaccinated people in Europe being infected with Omicron but only 6 vaccinated individuals in the United States being infected with Omicron...

It's still will not be classified as "immune escape" for statistical purposes because there's not enough data nor does it have any impact on the public health.

There just isn't enough data and you never open travel until you get the data to study. Instead, you close the borders and then study the data as more data come in.

We have a little history at our fingertips with Covid...the countries that performed the best against Covid prior to vaccinations...were countries that didn't have much travel or shut down the travel as much as possible into their country.

Keep something else in mind that's factual...all Pandemics in our history of life have gone thru stages of mild symptoms until another variant shows up that's more deadly (e.g. 1918 Influenza Pandemic that started for several months with mild illness...nothing to worry about).
  • To virologists...we could be in the eye of the storm right now with Omicron...no wind and no rain. The worst may not come but if the worst does come...
Remove or control the travel...there's no Pandemic.

We can get back to continuing to drive down our Covid numbers here in North America and then the vaccine mandate debate becomes mute / mandates not needed.

P.S. I truly hope Omicron is an over-reaction. Also, I hope we're not in the eye of the storm with Omicron and what comes after will not be something deadlier than the Delta Variant considering we get mutations everyday (most not a big deal). It's still concerning now, more so now that travel is still open between some countries.

wrbtrader
 
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ipatent said:
Five cases in New York, no information on their vaccination status yet except for one of them, who had "at least one shot."
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You should only start to worry when people begin to become infected with Omicron that did not travel to South Africa or anywhere in Africa regardless of their vaccination status.
  • This would then represent community spread and that's when the alarm becomes very loud especially if it's an exponential spread.
Until then, they're probably keeping data on the health status, age, gender and many other issues that will give public health agencies of the states important information to make adjustments in their policies.

Yet, if each state has a few cases and it doesn't go further than that as in there's no community spread...that would be a big victory along with the fact that nobody is being Hospitalized or there's very little hospitalization.

Once again, the key is a community spread in those that have not been to Africa...didn't travel anywhere outside of their community.

wrbtrader
 
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