No kidding.
New book on how traders are beating the HFT guys
- Thread starter brad10
- Start date
No kidding.
Who said anything about trading a system?
Whatever.
I'm serious, this thread seems to point out a misunderstanding of newer traders thinking you need to create a system, then backtest to be successful which isn't true at all. In fact I don't think any of the profitable traders I know rely on backtesting whatsoever.
Are the books teaching this? Why does everyone think this is how you trade?
Not everyone. You're having a discussion with a member of the There's Only One Way To Do Things Club.
I forward test anything new, trading very small with tight risk control. If it works I increase size, if not it gets tossed out.
A major reason for backtesting and forward testing IMO, is to promote the confidence of the trader. The system may or may not reflect reality, but if the trader thinks it reflects reality, then she/he is more confident to trade it under all conditions believing that the "system law of the universe" will prevail in the long run.
If the trader can't explain what edge the system takes advantage of then it may be a false positive.
In other words you prefer to risk your money immediately on new, un-proven trading systems instead of testing them with historical data first and THEN trading them, if they are indeed profitable and do not generate huge drawdowns.
Do you have ANY idea how much money you could lose with that type of I-prefer-to-trade-immediately-and-worry-about-the-results-later trading style?
What if you lose 50 grand that way before finally finding a (mediocre) "winning" trading system that returns 4.2% a year before taxes?
Yup, that's right. What's that stuff about past results being no guarantee of future performance?
My strongest attribute is trade management, and yes I worked and still work bloody hard to be good at that. Lose 50K testing ideas? Pigs would fly first.
I try not to complicate things. Just work on being on the right side of any moves. New stuff to me is about increasing exposure to asset classes I haven't traded before, or a new entry signal or a new filter.
There really is more than one way to do things you know. Imagine the possibilities if you would open up your mind and see that.
Oh I see.
Well I guess if I showed you a backtested "system" that consistently lost 10% a year for the last 25 years, you would "forward" trade/test it immediately with real cash, because "past results are no indication of future performance".
After all, only clueless traders seriously believe that this losing trading system will keep losing money in the future, eh JustTrading?
As I posted on another thread:
Greetings,
I have just received an email today from John Carter's group at "Right Angle Trading". The email states that twice tomorrow at 8am & 1pm EST, John will be hosting a video presentation on:" How to protect yourself against the HFT's".
The email verbiage reads:
"John will also show you how to "get in front of" the High Frequency Traders so you can take advantage of big market moves. HFT impacts virtually ever segment of today's markets - options, futures, currencies, and stocks - so there's something for everyone in this free training webinar. And, if you missed his video explaining how HFT sees what's happening inside the markets before you do, it's still available, so check it out."
I have no affiliation with John Carter or any other vendor for that matter. Further, I have no hidden agenda's with regard to this email or anything or anybody. I'm merely presenting this offer to the group, since it is very much in line with the title of this thread.
If you want to see this presentation tomorrow, you'll have to register with this guy: bradpowell@rightangletrading.com.
He's definitely got my curiosity aroused on this one. But then again, that is what vendors do...smile. I hope some of you ET'ers who are well versed on this topic will be there to take him to task on what he has to say. It's currently way beyond my pay grade.
KDASFTG
Greetings,
I have just received an email today from John Carter's group at "Right Angle Trading". The email states that twice tomorrow at 8am & 1pm EST, John will be hosting a video presentation on:" How to protect yourself against the HFT's".
The email verbiage reads:
"John will also show you how to "get in front of" the High Frequency Traders so you can take advantage of big market moves. HFT impacts virtually ever segment of today's markets - options, futures, currencies, and stocks - so there's something for everyone in this free training webinar. And, if you missed his video explaining how HFT sees what's happening inside the markets before you do, it's still available, so check it out."
I have no affiliation with John Carter or any other vendor for that matter. Further, I have no hidden agenda's with regard to this email or anything or anybody. I'm merely presenting this offer to the group, since it is very much in line with the title of this thread.
If you want to see this presentation tomorrow, you'll have to register with this guy: bradpowell@rightangletrading.com.
He's definitely got my curiosity aroused on this one. But then again, that is what vendors do...smile. I hope some of you ET'ers who are well versed on this topic will be there to take him to task on what he has to say. It's currently way beyond my pay grade.
KDASFTG