Hi sp500,
Do you use NN in your trading at all? For what purpose? Your comment also sounded like it can work under proper use.
Thanks,
KC
Neural Network
- Thread starter knifecatcher
- Start date
Hi sp500,
Do you use NN in your trading at all? For what purpose? Your comment also sounded like it can work under proper use.
Thanks,
KC
I have contacted Katz and McCormick for their CD a long time ago. They seems like friendly people and they trade themselves. A few months (or could be a year ago), they asked (no hype in the email) if anyone interested in a trading system based on genetic algorithms because it doesn't fit their style of trading. I never bothered with it thinking if it is very good, they would fit their style to it. Now it got me curious.
KC
unfortunately i'm part of the 90% that will never be able to make it work.
The only NN that works for me is my head. And the purchase was a bargain because i got it for free.
Quote from spike500:
unfortunately i'm part of the 90% that will never be able to make it work.
The only NN that works for me is my head. And the purchase was a bargain because i got it for free.
The sample size is too small for now... hopefully we can get to 30 votes. The poll shows that the success rate doesn't look as bad. I also wonder if the NN has improved over the years. What other areas of research shows promise besides genetic algorithms?
I think there is something there: 4 25%
I lost money and waste time: 7 43.75%
I made money but not worth the risk: 1 6.25%
I made money consistently: 4 25%
Quote from OddTrader:
Your NN sounds great. Can you quote me a price once it's of no use to you anymore?
Odd, you sure you want it after sp 's done with his?
:eek:
Indeed, ya wrote a lot about a lot of stuff.
If you keep this up, you might actually come close to matching Jack' s renown by the time you reach your seventies.
nononsense
A couple of years ago I built and tested several NN based models for stocks. I tried many variations regarding network topology, input data normalization, point of insertion of the network into the system and algorithms for weight updating.
Since I was not satisfied with the ubiquitous back propagation rule for learning, I finally constructed a more "advanced" version where weights were updated via a quite sophisticated multiple crossover genetic algorithm.
I used out-of-sample data, walk forward retraining etc etc.
Then I gave up NN and only kept the GA as a very fast and effective form of curve fitting.
While I don't feel so arrogant (I'm arrogant though) as to say mine is the last word on the subject, all I can say is that if NN and GA can make money, I wasn't able to find how. Not a single one of the systems I tested was able to net positive when tested on a non trivial amount of out-of-sample data.
A much simpler pullback system of about 10 lines would have been much better, for a while.
GS
Since I was not satisfied with the ubiquitous back propagation rule for learning, I finally constructed a more "advanced" version where weights were updated via a quite sophisticated multiple crossover genetic algorithm.
I used out-of-sample data, walk forward retraining etc etc.
Then I gave up NN and only kept the GA as a very fast and effective form of curve fitting.
While I don't feel so arrogant (I'm arrogant though) as to say mine is the last word on the subject, all I can say is that if NN and GA can make money, I wasn't able to find how. Not a single one of the systems I tested was able to net positive when tested on a non trivial amount of out-of-sample data.
A much simpler pullback system of about 10 lines would have been much better, for a while.
GS