Neural Network sites - any good?

Quote from shogunmike:

Hi guys,

I was wondering if anybody has any opinions on sites that are promoting Neural Network type forecasting methods such as:

http://www.stock-forecasting.com/
http://www.stockneuromaster.com/
http://www.tradecision.com/

I'm curious as to whether NNs work at all in trading. Having read some of the posts here, I get the impression that people believe they're not a substitute for "finding an edge" etc, but they are a useful tool.

Any thoughts?

Thanks,

Mike.
More...

Stock-forecasting.com has a free predictor. It predicts for DIA OCLH for today the following:

132.00 131.89 131.48 132.18 +0.36%

Let's see. Too good to be true. Easy to evaluate this software but I'm afraid it is pure linear regression or curve fitting.

I prefer data mining which is also sort of a NN method. The only one I know is APS:

www.tradingpatterns.com

They have a demo and you can see what signasl/patterns you get for a number of days.

I plan to try tradecision soon. It looks quite interesting.

Ron
 
I liked the look of TradingPatterns.com, the data mining approach looks good.

So you think stock-forecasting.com is one to miss? I'm just wondering where to spend my hard earned cash. It looks like a good deal for only $40 a month. Tradecision is a lot more expensive!

Thanks for your comments,

Mike.
 
Quote from shogunmike:

So you think stock-forecasting.com is one to miss? I'm just wondering where to spend my hard earned cash. It looks like a good deal for only $40 a month. Tradecision is a lot more expensive!
More...

No, I didn't say that. I will evaluate a few predictions first. I may subscribe. Thanks for the link.

However, I noticed something curious. They calculate the accuracy of their prediction based on the stock price value vs predicted value and not based on the predicted change from previous close vs the actual change.

For example, if a stock closed at 156, up 6 and they predicted 151, up 1 then according to their method the accuracy is: 96.8%. But based on the absolute change from the last close the accuracy is 16.6%.

So if they insist that they forecast price then they may claim what appears to be high accuracy but that means little to traders, it is not high enough.

I will have to evaluate several predictions to see how they perform.


Ron
 
Ron,

I agree that it is a strange way to calculate accuracy...

...strange from a trading point of view, but not from a marketing point of view! ;-)

However, they do provide previous prediction accuracies. I will also try it out for a while (maybe paper trading with their method), and see how it goes.

Mike.
 
Quote from shogunmike:

Ron,

I agree that it is a strange way to calculate accuracy...

...strange from a trading point of view, but not from a marketing point of view! ;-)

However, they do provide previous prediction accuracies. I will also try it out for a while (maybe paper trading with their method), and see how it goes.

Mike.
More...

I agree. I will try the demo for a few days before I subscribe. I may came up with a way of increasing the accuracy or using their results to construct my own indicators. Probably contrarian:)

Ron
 
maybe there is something to the best Neural networks stuff, but there's no question in my mind that it's a favorite topic of con men
 
Mike,

If you are really interested in getting an understanding of Neural Networking and how it can be applied to the market, then you may want to consider getting the NeuroLab add-on for Wealth-ab 4.0 and taking it for a spin.

http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/getpage?page=NeuroLab.htm

Doing this will provide you with a solid educational background about the nut & bolts of Neural Networking.... and you can determine yourself if NN provides any edge for your trading.

Best Regards,

- Greg




Quote from shogunmike:

Hi guys,

I was wondering if anybody has any opinions on sites that are promoting Neural Network type forecasting methods such as:

http://www.stock-forecasting.com/
http://www.stockneuromaster.com/
http://www.tradecision.com/

I'm curious as to whether NNs work at all in trading. Having read some of the posts here, I get the impression that people believe they're not a substitute for "finding an edge" etc, but they are a useful tool.

Any thoughts?

Thanks,

Mike.
More...
 
Forget NN.

There is not a NN anywhere that can pick a turning point in the future.

A price series is near impossible to pick a turning point from historical data and maths.
 
Quote from Digs:

Forget NN.

There is not a NN anywhere that can pick a turning point in the future.

A price series is near impossible to pick a turning point from historical data and maths.
More...

"Near impossible" or "impossible"? If "impossible", then this wouldn't this conclusion apply to any attempt to pick a turning point, not just neural networks?
 
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