Netflix will hit $58.50 by July!

I don't think so that this stock will hit about $50, many have begun to think about buying NFLX to see its double increase in future.
 
I wouldn't want to bank on it hitting $58 either. There is too much time between now and when it could potentially hit that $58 for news to change the direction it is going in. $80 is a fairly high probability though.

Charts do work but only BETWEEN the news. News is what usually changes the direction of the charts. So between news stories that can impact the stock is where the charts work. Why? Because what else is there to go on between the related news stories? So everyone is using them at that point. Some companies seem to only have any related news once per quarter (earnings), so what else would someone base short term trade decisions on between quarters besides charts?

By related news I mean anything about that company (earnings, product announcements, layoffs, scandals, etc.), anything about that companies competitors, and anything about that companies sector.

This is why I only trade options on ETFs like SPY, DIA, QQQ, and TLT. Much more liquidity, less news impact, plus easy to hedge against a directional change. They are obviously not impervious to news but it takes more broad and significant news to change their direction.
 
Jamie J. said:
I don't think so that this stock will hit about $50, many have begun to think about buying NFLX to see its double increase in future.
More...

Some fundamentals for those who does not belive in charts from
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NFLX

1. PE = 322, even the NFLX drops to $50 PE still will be above 150
2. negative cash flow
3. Drop in income

Give me at least 1 good reason why NFLX has double from now to $180. Maybe it will be in 5-10 years. But at this point I see nothing to support it.

It is not 2003 when NFLX did not have any competitors. It is not 2010 when just a couple of weak competitors tried to take clients from the NFLX. Now, you have HBO GO, Amazon Prime, Hulu Plus, Youtube, iTunes, Vudu, Cracles, Epix, Google Play, CinemaNow, Blockbaster on Demand and etc. It will be more as various TV networks like HBO will be jumping into the game. Netflix will be facing tougher competition and it will be losing customers.
 
syswizard said:
Exactly. There was absolutely hardly any volume at the 80 level, yet look how it was supported !
I've been skeptical of market profile techniques.
More...

I am not telling that it will happen tomorrow, Let's wait and see.

During December 2015 - February 2016 we had much stronger volume at the same price levels we are now. The Bulls were jumping in and fighting the Bears by rising volume. Now, the Bulls are not as aggressive as they were before. It is not going to be easy to defeat the Bears this time. Unless I see high volume during the decline - a sign that the Bulls are jumping in - I will not expect the NFLX to go up. And now I would like to see much higher volumes than we had at the bottom February's support.

20160429nflx.png

chart courtesy of http://www.marketvolume.com

We may see bounces but this stock is highly overpriced (even by fundamental criterias) and it is doomed to crash to the realistic levels...

P.S. time will show.
 
felixbocharov said:
I agree, $50 is an absolutely impossible scenario.
More...

Very strong words. I hope you have some strong numbers back up such statement. I would appreciate you share them with others.

I am not telling that NFLX will drop to th $50 level, my belive is that if NFLX breakes $80 then the next stop will be around $65. If $65 level is broken then it will slide to $50.
 
viktor_k67 said:
Those are the the ranges where the highest volume was accumulated - see vertical histogram on the left side of my chart.

High volume means a lot of shares changed hands in those ranges - a lot of investors entered a position and a lot of funds were injected in this stock - much bigger than in any other price ranges. For those investors, it is going to be very sensitive matter when price will be approaching these price ranges as their investments will be on the profit/loss edge.

If price drops below $80 it will be heading to those range as around them a lot of stop-loss orders (mental and hard) are set. Long-term traders will be selling while their positions are still positive and respectfully they will be pushing price down.

Supply (willingness to sell while position is still in profit) will be higher then demand on the stock toward these price ranges.
More...

Thanks for your help !
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top