Netflix will hit $58.50 by July!

A

Adam H

nflx-chart-4-26-16.jpg
 
if NFLX passes the $80 support (I do not see any problem for it) then the next possible stuck would be around $63-67 and after that around $49-53. Those are the levels were the biggest volume was accumulated. Big number of the Bulls opened their long positions at these levels and as the NFLX will be on the edge to turn a lot of bullish investments from positive into negative this will a sensitive moment for many investors. In addition these levels match past support/resistance levels.

20160427nflx.png

chart courtesy of http://www.marketvolume.com
 
viktor_k67 said:
if NFLX passes the $80 support (I do not see any problem for it) then the next possible stuck would be around $63-67 and after that around $49-53. Those are the levels were the biggest volume was accumulated. Big number of the Bulls opened their long positions at these levels and as the NFLX will be on the edge to turn a lot of bullish investments from positive into negative this will a sensitive moment for many investors. In addition these levels match past support/resistance levels.

chart courtesy of http://www.marketvolume.com
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I admit my chart skills are lacking but maybe you can help me out.
I see how the 80.07 dollars can be argued because that was the support for the last low.
So, I can see how that can be a major indicator.
But how did you arrive at 63.51 and 49.19 ?
And how did you arrive at 58.50 by making a reference to today's price at 93.56?


I see the recent high of 133.27.
I understand the low of 80.07 at A.
I guess B is the most recent high at 112 before it began to drop.
I assume that 93.56 represents the current price...when the chart was made.
But how do you arrive at C being 58.50? What does that have to do with the 93.56 level ?
How does that correlate to the current price and how did you arrive at July?
Is that because the 2Q ends in June and results are announced in July ?

I don't understand the relationships between all the indicators.

Thanks.
 
Last edited:
It very well may get there but I doubt the time frame. Looking at that chart even the biggest moves are only about $25 per 2 months. Add in the probable bounce at $80 and you are looking at late August early September depending on the strength of the move. That is also assuming some news between now and then doesn't change the direction.

Edit: If you are going to short it now, I would get out at 80 wait for the bounce then get back in when it breaks below 80 and ride it down from there.
 
DallasCowboysFan said:
But how did you arrive at 63.51 and 49.19 ?
And how did you arrive at 58.50 by making a reference to today's price at 93.56?.
More...

Those are the the ranges where the highest volume was accumulated - see vertical histogram on the left side of my chart.

High volume means a lot of shares changed hands in those ranges - a lot of investors entered a position and a lot of funds were injected in this stock - much bigger than in any other price ranges. For those investors, it is going to be very sensitive matter when price will be approaching these price ranges as their investments will be on the profit/loss edge.

If price drops below $80 it will be heading to those range as around them a lot of stop-loss orders (mental and hard) are set. Long-term traders will be selling while their positions are still positive and respectfully they will be pushing price down.

Supply (willingness to sell while position is still in profit) will be higher then demand on the stock toward these price ranges.
 
felixbocharov said:
Charts are useless. I accept and understand only daily charts, which sometimes work.
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Charts are useless if the one looks at the indicators just as indicators without understanding how they are calculated and what actually they show. If the one cannot interpret an indicator down to supply/demand level then an indicator is just some number which means nothing.

Changes in trading volume, volume surges, accumulation of volume reveal some information which may help to understand changes in supply/demand balance which may help in making a trading decision. Check the article at
http://www.marketvolume.com/advance_decline/overbought_oversold.asp
which brings analysis of a volume surge down to supply/demand balance.
 
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