netflix short

ha ha...
The experts are saying its completed its "consolidation phase" and due for another leg higher to $220.
Does anybody not notice that forward PE of 153?
Oh. They raised their rates $2. That and a Morgan Stanley upgrade (the day before this announcement.. no leaks there lol) explains everything.

Consolidation my ass. This is a short squeeze. If it hits $220 before Xmas I'll don body paint and a thong and march up and down Wall Street playing the Macarena on a tuba. You can hold me to it.
 
I sold 10 contracts of NFLX 157.5 less than a week ago for 1.14 and today I covered at 3 cents. I could have covered at 1 cent or let it expire by tomorrow but I wanted to leave some tips.
 
Market is rallying but volume is down on across the board compared to average volume. Tomorrow (Friday) will be a down day?
 
vanzandt said:
No such thing.
More...
back data predicts you should be right. Market will be up 4 months for a tax cut that we have no idea what it is, 4 months up for health care fix which again did not happen. Another 4 months up because ......
Then someday someone will fart and that will make the market to tumble 30%
 
hajimow said:
back data predicts you should be right. Market will be up 4 months for a tax cut that we have no idea what it is, 4 months up for health care fix which again did not happen. Another 4 months up because ......
Then someday someone will fart and that will make the market to tumble 30%
More...
Ya know Haji... lets say the tax cut won't happen until next year. Pretty reasonable assumption I think.

Now I'm no tax accountant.... but if capital gains goes from 35% down to say 20%... and the market is expecting that for next year.... then no one is going to sell and take profits this year. Why would they? They will wait because depending on their AUM... this can mean hundreds of millions of dollars dropping to the bottom line when they take all the huge profits they've made off all these pigs.

Kinda common sense to me. Maybe I'm being over-simple. Won't be the first time. And like I said, if I'm anything, its not a f'n accountant.
 
vanzandt said:
Ya know Haji... lets say the tax cut won't happen until next year. Pretty reasonable assumption I think.

Now I'm no tax accountant.... but if capital gains goes from 35% down to say 20%... and the market is expecting that for next year.... then no one is going to sell and take profits this year. Why would they? They will wait because depending on their AUM... this can mean hundreds of millions of dollars dropping to the bottom line when they take all the huge profits they've made off all these pigs.

Kinda common sense to me. Maybe I'm being over-simple. Won't be the first time. And like I said, if I'm anything, its not a f'n accountant.
More...
I was just searching for some tax info on capital gains to verify this. I found this quote from Warren Buffet from only 2 days ago. Kinda in a way says what I just said.
'magine that. :sneaky:

"It would pay me to sell the losses now and defer the gains until next year. I think there's a lot of that going on because I think there's an expectation that if they reduce -- that if they have a tax act, it will be -- they will cut the rates -- certainly corporate rates. It would be kind of foolish to have a gain now and pay 35% tax on it if by waiting a few months you were likely to pay 25%".

"There's not that many days left to legislate, and I would feel kind of silly if I realized $1 billion worth of gains and paid $350 million in tax on it if I just waited a few months and would have paid $250 million. If enough people were doing that that may mean that the market is being affected fairly substantially".
-WB
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/ful...fett-on-tax-reform-markets-and-much-more.html
 
vanzandt said:
I was just searching for some tax info on capital gains to verify this. I found this quote from Warren Buffet from only 2 days ago. Kinda in a way says what I just said.
'magine that. :sneaky:

"It would pay me to sell the losses now and defer the gains until next year. I think there's a lot of that going on because I think there's an expectation that if they reduce -- that if they have a tax act, it will be -- they will cut the rates -- certainly corporate rates. It would be kind of foolish to have a gain now and pay 35% tax on it if by waiting a few months you were likely to pay 25%".

"There's not that many days left to legislate, and I would feel kind of silly if I realized $1 billion worth of gains and paid $350 million in tax on it if I just waited a few months and would have paid $250 million. If enough people were doing that that may mean that the market is being affected fairly substantially".
-WB
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/ful...fett-on-tax-reform-markets-and-much-more.html
More...

The way Warren would be able to reduce taxes won't apply to you and me. They might reduce the corp tax from 35 to 25 but it might not affect the individual max tax bracket. They will play with numbers. If they reduce the tax bracket, then they might not allow you to deduct things like margin interest paid or ......
and will call it simplifying tax code. Let's say you have bought a stock at $100 and now it is at $140. If you sell now, you have to pay $40x35%=$14 as tax. If you wait till next year and tax rate changes as you wish and other deductions stay the say, you would pay $40x25=10. They difference is $4. Now if the stock drops to $130 by next year when you plan to sell, you would pay $30x25%=$7.5 and you have also lost $10 from profit so actually you are paying $17.5 compared to $14 if you sell now.
 
Haji.... nobody gives a F about you and me.
You're missing my point bro.
What I'm talking about are folks that buy and sell hundreds of millions of dollars in stocks. THEY care. There won't be a market wide sell-off if this is the generally accepted mantra.
 
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