Neither Tech nor Macro
- Thread starter fxintruder
- Start date
Quote from fxintruder:
Added a seventh position to the UsdJpy explained in several posts . Market is going to start pricing in the likeley easing from BOJ on October 30. After having hit the 80's decision area with a massive size (TP add-ons 2-3-4-5 ), I am deciding to follow this leg until my conviction of a way weaker Yen is questioned. The Core position at 77.46 is indeed still running.
Last add ons of the week, have a good week end.
Quote from fxintruder:
Last add ons of the week, have a good week end.
All the Add-ons were closed at 79.92 prior to the fact with a+2p. Thinking not enough participants to price in the event above 80.00 not to mention 80.50; since US are closed and focus shifting on Hurricane Sandy . Of course still giving to the position at 77.46 a core status . Weekly intentions will be posted later.
Week 44 intentions.
Not much to say. Hurricane Sandy is blurring the environment, since we donât know the US positioning and the rest of the world is in stand by mode. Furthermore, focus now will shift on the US election outcome, with rather a mixed impression on the outcome consequences. Obama president means a likely fiscal cliff gridlock and Romney the end of QEs. This is of course the first reaction, knowing that on a medium term nothing will change. QE will remain and compromise on the cliff will be find, whoever is elected. Nevertheless this is prone to high volatility with the storm cost adding to uncertainty with new speculations.
EurUsd tactical again with a long intention around the 200DMA . âThe waiting for Godot â mood surrounding the â¬uro is likely to remain, leaving ground to techs playing ping-pong inside the current range. I am neutral, but thinking to buy some ranging moves if it searches liquidity around 1.2830 (200DMA). I estimate the range from there to 1.3150. I see the general strike tomorrow as the catalyst to get at the lower boundary.
Risk to the trade: the pair as usual is highly sensitive to any lose lips from Eurozone.
AudUsd tactical shorts intentions as explained in a previous post I paste below to regroup this week intentions:
The relatively good Hsbc Chinese PMI, though below 50, is giving wings to risk on addicts. I am not going to play against this kind of addiction mainly when it is used by some to liquidate before a carry traders catalyst, thats is RBA rate decision on early November. Consensus is still expecting 25bp cut, but so far market is just shrugging it off. This wonât last and we will probably start to see soon price reversing ahead of the RBA decision.
Itâs a tactical trade for me with a sell intention, around 1.0450-1.0470 , I am going to look at after the Chinese official PMI due on Nov 1st while monitoring the Australian PPI the day after. Although this indicator is known to be fake, any number above the 50 can push the price way above the first liquidity area. That is is why its better to wait for the Chinese release before deciding on the entry level and the higher the better. A more conservative approach is to enter after the Australian PPI only if it is below expectations or in line. The same way since we are trading the discount of the 25bp cut, we have to exit or lock just before the RBA decision.
Risk to the trade:
1: Addiction to AUD bullishness is strong, and the cut can just simply be shrugged off, mainly if the Chinese PMI is above the 50s.
2: If the Australian PPI is showing some inflation risks, the market can consider there will be no cut, and continue to go higher.
3: Any risk on mood can hinder the south move.
UsdJpy waiting for the US outcome to add to the core, no clear vision now and seeing the pair ranging until then. The incentives are still the same, that is, the vital need of Japan of a weaker Yen. Even though the 10Ytr were merely in line with expectations but below of what has been whispered lately, it will have mechanic results weakening the Yen on a medium term. Also I suspect the BoJ to wait for the US presidential outcome before using the bazooka. A move now wouldâve been capped by the focus shifting on the US.
Not much to say. Hurricane Sandy is blurring the environment, since we donât know the US positioning and the rest of the world is in stand by mode. Furthermore, focus now will shift on the US election outcome, with rather a mixed impression on the outcome consequences. Obama president means a likely fiscal cliff gridlock and Romney the end of QEs. This is of course the first reaction, knowing that on a medium term nothing will change. QE will remain and compromise on the cliff will be find, whoever is elected. Nevertheless this is prone to high volatility with the storm cost adding to uncertainty with new speculations.
EurUsd tactical again with a long intention around the 200DMA . âThe waiting for Godot â mood surrounding the â¬uro is likely to remain, leaving ground to techs playing ping-pong inside the current range. I am neutral, but thinking to buy some ranging moves if it searches liquidity around 1.2830 (200DMA). I estimate the range from there to 1.3150. I see the general strike tomorrow as the catalyst to get at the lower boundary.
Risk to the trade: the pair as usual is highly sensitive to any lose lips from Eurozone.
AudUsd tactical shorts intentions as explained in a previous post I paste below to regroup this week intentions:
The relatively good Hsbc Chinese PMI, though below 50, is giving wings to risk on addicts. I am not going to play against this kind of addiction mainly when it is used by some to liquidate before a carry traders catalyst, thats is RBA rate decision on early November. Consensus is still expecting 25bp cut, but so far market is just shrugging it off. This wonât last and we will probably start to see soon price reversing ahead of the RBA decision.
Itâs a tactical trade for me with a sell intention, around 1.0450-1.0470 , I am going to look at after the Chinese official PMI due on Nov 1st while monitoring the Australian PPI the day after. Although this indicator is known to be fake, any number above the 50 can push the price way above the first liquidity area. That is is why its better to wait for the Chinese release before deciding on the entry level and the higher the better. A more conservative approach is to enter after the Australian PPI only if it is below expectations or in line. The same way since we are trading the discount of the 25bp cut, we have to exit or lock just before the RBA decision.
Risk to the trade:
1: Addiction to AUD bullishness is strong, and the cut can just simply be shrugged off, mainly if the Chinese PMI is above the 50s.
2: If the Australian PPI is showing some inflation risks, the market can consider there will be no cut, and continue to go higher.
3: Any risk on mood can hinder the south move.
UsdJpy waiting for the US outcome to add to the core, no clear vision now and seeing the pair ranging until then. The incentives are still the same, that is, the vital need of Japan of a weaker Yen. Even though the 10Ytr were merely in line with expectations but below of what has been whispered lately, it will have mechanic results weakening the Yen on a medium term. Also I suspect the BoJ to wait for the US presidential outcome before using the bazooka. A move now wouldâve been capped by the focus shifting on the US.
A quicky long taken below 1.30 after the yesterday's high breakout. Market in a risk on mood, expecting a pop in US opening. This is probably going to shrug off the general strike in Spain. It's a tactical trade with no other incentives than market dynamics supported by a bullish sentiment on risk. TP around 1.3080 position locked below 1.30. Keep an eye on London lunch break thin market. Also Planning to enter UsdJpy below the 80s, for a tp around 80.50.
I twitt these kinds of intraday quickies, not planned by nature, @neoflytox because the decision making is fast. Sorry to be late in here.
I twitt these kinds of intraday quickies, not planned by nature, @neoflytox because the decision making is fast. Sorry to be late in here.
UsdJpy Chart
Quote from fxintruder:
A quicky long taken below 1.30 after the yesterday's high breakout. Market in a risk on mood, expecting a pop in US opening. This is probably going to shrug off the general strike in Spain. It's a tactical trade with no other incentives than market dynamics supported by a bullish sentiment on risk. TP around 1.3080 position locked below 1.30. Keep an eye on London lunch break thin market. Also Planning to enter UsdJpy below the 80s, for a tp around 80.50.
I twitt these kinds of intraday quickies, not planned by nature, @neoflytox because the decision making is fast. Sorry to be late in here.
EurUsd lock hit +15p.
UsdJpy long at 79.93 targeting 80.50 barrier.
Still pending at 1.2835. Price not far, but I can miss it in the post nfp fluctuations. Though I don't see any consistent north move without the 200DMA liquidity.
UsdJpy Target hit +57p. Being covered by the core position at 77.46 and having taken many pips already from several add-ons, it's easy to be positioned ahead of nfp at no risk.
I am following the same strategy on ES, I didn't detail here, more on this later.
Have a good week end.
Hi,
was off during family vacations. Spent all the week end and Yesterday reading and analyzing to re-sync with the market. The picture is quite clear, UNCERTAINTY is everywhere.
1: US economy is improving but the dollar is strengthening. The fears of a fiscal cliff gridlock to which you add the fear of the end of QE are building a market sentiment prone to quickly cover or move to safety. This market is going to be highly sensitive to bearish influences until the congress and white house accept a compromise on the fiscal cliff. Meanwhile it would barely move on good news. The agreement on a compromise might not be reached before the end limit of time, that is first January. On the QE front I expect Bernie to be very dovish at the next presser to stabilize the market.
2: Eurozone crisis is the other pole of uncertainty. Greece, Spain and now France are covering the headlines. Despite the impossible risk of a default due to Draghi's OMT the market is factoring on the downside the Euro leaders complacency. The lack of clear decisions on the Greek debt is putting at risk the already fragile current coalition. Rajoy is still not wanting a bailout to trigger ECB OMTs. France is questioned on its capacity to implement anti-crisis policy. Also, after France, Germany is now hit on its fundamentals and the austerity policies are now openly questioned.
Point 1 and 2 are the pure cocktail of uncertainty. For us traders, this is seen on the YEN strengthening despite that everybody knows that Japan is going to implement open-ended easing. The second matter for traders, seeing the US fundamentals, is the question whether or not the USD is still a funding currency in terms of anticipation (fundamentally it is the case, but market always price anticipations). This question is important and we will have the answer if the USD continue to strengthen even during "risk on" sentiment. But the market will need a substitute, we will know which if the Euro take the other direction during "risk on" . This latter question is trickier because the Euro can be pushed south just by its specific problems. Nevertheless in terms of monetary policy and macro economics the Euro is gathering all the ingredients to become a funding currency soon. As said above, after France, Germany is also hit on the fundamentals this means less austerity, more pro-growth policies and probably new QEs and the mandatory need for a weaker Euro. This is going to come quickly because of the german elections in 10 months or so.
During these uncertain markets, on the spot I am sitting on my hands and will probably play some news releases. But we must keep in mind that the global macro analysis is above the sentiments and short term reactions. The thing is to avoid frenzy and madness both sides. The use of options strategies is better suited to these moments of uncertainties.
USDJPY: I stay bearish on the Yen, though I closed the core from 77.45 near 80.00 and all the add ons. Did this because of the fiscal cliff weighting heavily on the pair and there is no need to see a retrace on a winner of 30% or more. But being fundamentally bearish on the yen (bullish UsdJpy) and anticipating a ranging behavior in the medium term I am now positioned with a butterfly slightly bullish DEC21 80-82-84. I am not very content with the choice of the expiry, something after the 1st january would have been better, since the fiscal cliff would've been factored out at this moment.
GbpUsd bearish: A call Jan 16 BPX 64 (BPX: USDGBP). The pound is losing his fake safe haven status since the OMT, and is now seeing outflows growing. His correlation with the Euro is not going to help. Furthermore on the econ front UK is not improving despite the massive printing machines and now the BOE policy is openly questioned. Not selling the spot but using a straight option is to avoid the uncertainty prone to madness mainly with a pair lacking liquidity.
Conclusion: this fiscal cliff is weighing heavily on risk. But these are the best moments to get positioned, hence I am looking at cheaper price on Aud pairs and Oil. Concerning the intraday tactical trades on news, barriers etc.. because of the speed of the decision making i am twitting them @neoflytox real time but not on my blog or forums.
was off during family vacations. Spent all the week end and Yesterday reading and analyzing to re-sync with the market. The picture is quite clear, UNCERTAINTY is everywhere.
1: US economy is improving but the dollar is strengthening. The fears of a fiscal cliff gridlock to which you add the fear of the end of QE are building a market sentiment prone to quickly cover or move to safety. This market is going to be highly sensitive to bearish influences until the congress and white house accept a compromise on the fiscal cliff. Meanwhile it would barely move on good news. The agreement on a compromise might not be reached before the end limit of time, that is first January. On the QE front I expect Bernie to be very dovish at the next presser to stabilize the market.
2: Eurozone crisis is the other pole of uncertainty. Greece, Spain and now France are covering the headlines. Despite the impossible risk of a default due to Draghi's OMT the market is factoring on the downside the Euro leaders complacency. The lack of clear decisions on the Greek debt is putting at risk the already fragile current coalition. Rajoy is still not wanting a bailout to trigger ECB OMTs. France is questioned on its capacity to implement anti-crisis policy. Also, after France, Germany is now hit on its fundamentals and the austerity policies are now openly questioned.
Point 1 and 2 are the pure cocktail of uncertainty. For us traders, this is seen on the YEN strengthening despite that everybody knows that Japan is going to implement open-ended easing. The second matter for traders, seeing the US fundamentals, is the question whether or not the USD is still a funding currency in terms of anticipation (fundamentally it is the case, but market always price anticipations). This question is important and we will have the answer if the USD continue to strengthen even during "risk on" sentiment. But the market will need a substitute, we will know which if the Euro take the other direction during "risk on" . This latter question is trickier because the Euro can be pushed south just by its specific problems. Nevertheless in terms of monetary policy and macro economics the Euro is gathering all the ingredients to become a funding currency soon. As said above, after France, Germany is also hit on the fundamentals this means less austerity, more pro-growth policies and probably new QEs and the mandatory need for a weaker Euro. This is going to come quickly because of the german elections in 10 months or so.
During these uncertain markets, on the spot I am sitting on my hands and will probably play some news releases. But we must keep in mind that the global macro analysis is above the sentiments and short term reactions. The thing is to avoid frenzy and madness both sides. The use of options strategies is better suited to these moments of uncertainties.
USDJPY: I stay bearish on the Yen, though I closed the core from 77.45 near 80.00 and all the add ons. Did this because of the fiscal cliff weighting heavily on the pair and there is no need to see a retrace on a winner of 30% or more. But being fundamentally bearish on the yen (bullish UsdJpy) and anticipating a ranging behavior in the medium term I am now positioned with a butterfly slightly bullish DEC21 80-82-84. I am not very content with the choice of the expiry, something after the 1st january would have been better, since the fiscal cliff would've been factored out at this moment.
GbpUsd bearish: A call Jan 16 BPX 64 (BPX: USDGBP). The pound is losing his fake safe haven status since the OMT, and is now seeing outflows growing. His correlation with the Euro is not going to help. Furthermore on the econ front UK is not improving despite the massive printing machines and now the BOE policy is openly questioned. Not selling the spot but using a straight option is to avoid the uncertainty prone to madness mainly with a pair lacking liquidity.
Conclusion: this fiscal cliff is weighing heavily on risk. But these are the best moments to get positioned, hence I am looking at cheaper price on Aud pairs and Oil. Concerning the intraday tactical trades on news, barriers etc.. because of the speed of the decision making i am twitting them @neoflytox real time but not on my blog or forums.