Neither Tech nor Macro
- Thread starter fxintruder
- Start date
ha Imf my friend! How you going? Still in the chat?
In September it was quite empty. I am going to read your journal right now. ha imf, if someone is good at this trading nonsense its you.
Quote from fxintruder:
Remember the explanations given here about market dynamics and how price helped by catalysts gonna cross a liquidity cluster. Here is the daily chart showing the pair headed to the 200dma after macro data releases as planned. I have now 4 add-ons averaged at 78.94. therefore protected by the 79.00 rounded number. I will add more as said here if the stops above the 200Dma are tripped. Decision area is around the eighties.
On the global macro incentive, itâs interesting to notice that only Jpy pairs have a clear direction, that is a weaker Yen.
After the fifth add-on Iâve decided to lock half of the add-ons at 79.25 and thinking to TP the same size at 79.50 which is KO option barrier. I took this decision for several reasons:
1: BOJâs Shirakawa speech this morning GMT seems to me not dovish enough, and he didnât hint to anything about FX rate. Actually I was counting on this to see the price running through the 200 DMA area to trip the KO barrier.
2: The European session is starting in a risk-off mood, because of some disappointing US earnings
3: The add-ons position is very heavy and I donât want to keep it fully over the week end. Furthermore, this position is averaged at the upper side of the range. The use of a non averaging platform would have helped to manage the add-ons separately giving more flexibility and less exposure to pull backs. Normally I add to the cores on a separate platform UK based.
4: I will have other adding opportunities when the 79.50 area is cleared .
That EU summit is, as usual, going to disappoint as we were waiting for some decisions about aid to indebted members, Spain in particular. I see that as an opportunity to enter at a better price, hence looking at now to buy below 1.30.
In terms of timing, I am going to wait for the US session to digest the disappointment although this can be shrugged if we have as expected a good Home sales release. My views on the â¬uro are more or less the same, that is, a pressure release after the Draghi put (OMT) eliminating the priced in tail risk, at least what wasnât covered yet.
On the econ front, the picture is ugly and Gemany is now struggling to stop the decline of its figures on several key data. This off course is going to cap any upside move, but I do think that a major catalyst can take us to 1.33.The catalyst being Spain asking for a bailout, now that Germany is OK with at least some kind of credit line from the ESM mandatory to access the OMT program. I see it happening after the Spanish regional election due to the 21st october. Until then I am going to look at nice prices to build a tactical position as planned several times on the same incentives here and here and hereâ¦
In terms of timing, I am going to wait for the US session to digest the disappointment although this can be shrugged if we have as expected a good Home sales release. My views on the â¬uro are more or less the same, that is, a pressure release after the Draghi put (OMT) eliminating the priced in tail risk, at least what wasnât covered yet.
On the econ front, the picture is ugly and Gemany is now struggling to stop the decline of its figures on several key data. This off course is going to cap any upside move, but I do think that a major catalyst can take us to 1.33.The catalyst being Spain asking for a bailout, now that Germany is OK with at least some kind of credit line from the ESM mandatory to access the OMT program. I see it happening after the Spanish regional election due to the 21st october. Until then I am going to look at nice prices to build a tactical position as planned several times on the same incentives here and here and hereâ¦
Quote from fxintruder:
After the fifth add-on Iâve decided to lock half of the add-ons at 79.25 and thinking to TP the same size at 79.50 which is KO option barrier. I took this decision for several reasons:
1: BOJâs Shirakawa speech this morning GMT seems to me not dovish enough, and he didnât hint to anything about FX rate. Actually I was counting on this to see the price running through the 200 DMA area to trip the KO barrier.
2: The European session is starting in a risk-off mood, because of some disappointing US earnings
3: The add-ons position is very heavy and I donât want to keep it fully over the week end. Furthermore, this position is averaged at the upper side of the range. The use of a non averaging platform would have helped to manage the add-ons separately giving more flexibility and less exposure to pull backs. Normally I add to the cores on a separate platform UK based.
4: I will have other adding opportunities when the 79.50 area is cleared .
UsdJpy add ons #4 et 5 exited at 79.25, heavy size. I think that chances are we can see the barrier attacked before the US release.
Finally an almost forgotten pending long has been filled on ES-z. Tricky before the week end but I am OK with that. More on this in the weekly intentions on Monday.
That KO barrier at 79.50 on UsdJpy here has been hit. I thought it would happen Friday PM GMT, but the sell off was so heavy on risk that the Yen was stuck around 200DMA. The final attack occurred as usual in very thin market at the Asian closing just before the European open. I will probably close the 3 remaining add-ons around 79.90 and see how the pair is going to play there. From a global macro view I am expecting the BOJ to ease soon and some consistent stimulus from the Gov, this should weaker the Yen further. But I stay cautious since that fiscal cliff threat on risk appetite could trigger a flight to safety again. Another development is Fitch is looking to downgrade the Japanese signature; frankly I don't know how the market would react to such a news.
WEEK 43
This week 43 can bring some nice opportunities in terms of positioning. Wednesday we have some heavy news on the â¬uro and the Dollar, from central banks (Draghi, FOMC) and macro Data (German IFO / PMIs). We can assist to some participants looking to position themselves and probably bringing the price to nice levels we can buy/sell.
EurUsd pending long below 1.30, if it goes below 1.2950 I would probably add to the position to get an average price lower . If it doesnât go below 1.30 I would miss it again and probably try something above 1.30 since I really want to be long before the Spanish bailout announcement. The incentives are the same as last week posted here.
ES-Z was filled during a sell off momentum at 1437.50 because of an almost forgotten pending long. This happened Friday PM during the sell-off, tricky timing, chart is here. This is no accident , I was looking to buy the ES as said in last week intentions at 1428, I really donât know why I was pending higher. Nevertheless I am OK with it, though I am not going to add before the end of corporates earnings. After that I will manage the sizing while targeting the uncharted 1500.00 area but will stay cautious (locked) because of the fiscal cliff mess.
UsdJpy core position going as planned see the intraday posts for detailed tactics about managing added orders to the core. The size now is huge, and the risk is paid already.
AUD see week 42 posted here.
Quote from fxintruder:
That KO barrier at 79.50 on UsdJpy here has been hit. I thought it would happen Friday PM GMT, but the sell off was so heavy on risk that the Yen was stuck around 200DMA. The final attack occurred as usual in very thin market at the Asian closing just before the European open. I will probably close the 3 remaining add-ons around 79.90 and see how the pair is going to play there. From a global macro view I am expecting the BOJ to ease soon and some consistent stimulus from the Gov, this should weaker the Yen further. But I stay cautious since that fiscal cliff threat on risk appetite could trigger a flight to safety again. Another development is Fitch is looking to downgrade the Japanese signature; frankly I don't know how the market would react to such a news.
One add-on remaining and locked at 79.60 next target around 80.60 . Will probably add around the 80s on pull back.The idea is to reload heavily at liquidity clusters if sentiment is OK. So why not just keep the previous added orders:
1: Because by mistake it has been done on an averaging platform.
2: The 80s are not far and I expect some heavy turbulences, if the position wasn't averaged I would have been out of reach, therefore would've kept them all.