Neiderhoffer

[atticus]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

<b>Does that sound like a guy who just lost 93% of AUM? I mean, Vic's eccentric, but he still has human emotions...</b>

FWIW, the rumor has been vetted. It's simply not in print at present.

 

[vectors101]

it's only a 10% price correction in 1 month and these hedge funds fuck up. back in 2002 the market corrected 25% in 1 month. that is how volatile the markets can be. and it broke the back of market manipulators.

markets are volatile as it should be.. the FED has no place in determing the weekly or even monthly games in the market.

gov't should.just enforce the rules like market manipulation market collusion etc and margin requirements. instead of manipulating the markets with fake liquidity.

you see these funds try to control the market.

that shows how they are manipulating these markets to the bone.

Quote from Rearden Metal:

I'll disclose first that I really want this rumor to turn out to be false. Anyways, here's a little evidence that would suggest Matador is still alive and kicking:

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?cat=3

Oak Trees, from Victor Niederhoffer
<b>September 2, 2007</b>

In August, the stock market ended up, but with the interest rate vs. earnings yield differential at its all time high. Disruptive moves abounded. The Fed established a reversal in policy, cutting the discount rate. Through history, the average run of Fed moves in the same direction has been about eight. A 10% decline occurred in the S&P 500, and a 1000 point decline in the Dow, events unseen in five years. Some hedgefunds lost, some gained. Exchange margins were raised many times. In niche markets where the strong had ample capital, much fear was raised and many weak longs were washed out. Earnings continued apace, with some sectors down and others up — housing terrible, technology good.

Now the market can go its merry way with much less baggage. A nice replay of 1907, with a few actors changed. All this was brought to mind by the calmness and serenity of nature, exemplified by a few stately oak trees I saw at the Bronx Botanical Gardens today, trees with their horizontal perimeter as great as their vertical, and many branches on each side, starting very low.

______

<b>Does that sound like a guy who just lost 93% of AUM? Does it sound like a crushed and broken man to you?
I mean, Vic's eccentric, but he still has human emotions...</b>

 

[vectors101]

they don't go down .005% daily

prices gap down or up 25% when there are 'real action'

Quote from vectors101:

it's only a 10% price correction in 1 month and these hedge funds fuck up. back in 2002 the market corrected 25% in 1 month. that is how volatile the markets can be. and it broke the back of market manipulators.

markets are volatile as it should be.. the FED has no place in determing the weekly or even monthly games in the market.

gov't should.just enforce the rules like market manipulation market collusion etc and margin requirements. instead of manipulating the markets with fake liquidity.

you see these funds try to control the market.

that shows how they are manipulating these markets to the bone.

 

[Comanche]

Quote from dtan1e:

how can he blow up writing s&p puts when s&p keeps climbing?

A big component of short puts is implied volatility and is the main cause of short option blowups. While he may not have lost much on his delta, the huge blowup in implied volatility coupked with it is what likely caused his forced liquidations as margin calls probably went through the roof.

In all my years of trading, EVERY single book blowup I have seen is in short volatility.

 

[atticus]

ATM vols were printing 10% when the puts were sold. Mar08 were ~16%. You're looking at losing 2-3x your credit in the period in which the spoos traded down >140 handles. ATM vols were printing 20 during the selloff, so imagine where OTM-strikes under the market were trading.

 

[atticus]

Quote from Comanche:

In all my years of trading, EVERY single book blowup I have seen is in short volatility.

A close friend of mine lost $4mm getting pinned on a CL straddle this year. Add leverage and you can blowout long or short vol.

 

[Comanche]

Quote from atticus:

A close friend of mine lost $4mm getting pinned on a CL straddle this year. Add leverage and you can blowout long or short vol.

Oh, I agree it goes both ways, but I don't have any personal stories of books blowing up on long vol, hurt yes, but risks are defined on long vol, and there are no margin calls to force your hand (what I suspect killed Vic yet again)

 

[atticus]

Quote from Comanche:

Oh, I agree it goes both ways, but I don't have any personal stories of books blowing up on long vol, hurt yes, but risks are defined on long vol, and there are no margin calls to force your hand (what I suspect killed Vic yet again)

I don't believe locals pay 100% of their premium on long vol. It's essentially a theta figure + a vol adjustment. IOW, he went debit on long vol. When you sell an option at x, that's all you get. Path-dependence in is a bitch. Apparently clearing firms don't understand that only expiration matters.*



*joking

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

I'll disclose first that I really want this rumor to turn out to be false. Anyways, here's a little evidence that would suggest Matador is still alive and kicking:

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?cat=3

Oak Trees, from Victor Niederhoffer
<b>September 2, 2007</b>

<b>September 18, 2007</b>
Stocks Surge on Big Fed Rate Cut
The FOMC's super-sized half-point easing Tuesday sparked huge gains in equity indexes.

Tuesday the Federal Reserve slashed its target for the Fed funds rate by a surprising half-point, igniting the biggest rally U.S. stock indexes have seen all year...

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

one must remember this is all ASSumption and extrapolation regarding VNs tactics primary and otherwise. per his writings he is very keen on predator prey relationships and misdirection in the heat of battle. just a thought......

Really? Try as I may, I'm not detecting any thought here. Just boilerplate obfuscation. If you have any information on this matter, then by all means please share it.