Negative Theta Options over Weekend

[dmo]

Quote from MasterAtWork:

Please, feel free to check it out...And then come back to me. It is not something i discovered...Please Atticus google it. But if you work with MM, ask them. Course I will give you answers and where you will find it on papers (I swear). But first what about maths...Please tell me I'm wrong.

Cheers

Let's keep in mind that the math is just someone's best attempt to describe real life. So let's skip the "middle man" and go straight to the source.

If a crude oil call can have a greater delta than 1.0, then there should be a scenario in which crude oil goes up a dollar, and I made more money being long that call than if I were long the underlying futures contract.

What would that scenario be?

 

[MasterAtWork]

Quote from dmo:

Let's keep in mind that the math is just someone's best attempt to describe real life. So let's skip the "middle man" and go straight to the source.

If a crude oil call can have a greater delta than 1.0, then there should be a scenario in which crude oil goes up a dollar, and I made more money being long that call than if I were long the underlying futures contract.

What would that scenario be?

Hi Dmo

It is not about probabilities distributions, it about no arbitrage element.
In fact on the option you will make more money than if you were long the underlying, but it occurs when cost of carry are larger than interest rates or interest rates are negatives (Time to maturity is large and the option is deep in the money). We are taking about european style options.
Please check it out before laughing at me, as a great trader behaviour.

Cheers

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from dmo:


If a crude oil call can have a greater delta than 1.0, then there should be a scenario in which crude oil goes up a dollar, and I made more money being long that call than if I were long the underlying futures contract.

What would that scenario be?

I am not sure if you are kidding or serious, dmo. I had call’s gains > 1$ with 1$ gain in equity options.

 

[atticus]

Quote from IV_Trader:

I am not sure if you are kidding or serious, dmo. I had call’s gains > 1$ with 1$ gain in equity options.

Your gains were from vega.

 

[atticus]

Quote from MasterAtWork:

Please, feel free to check it out...And then come back to me. It is not something i discovered...Please Atticus google it. But if you work with MM, ask them. Course I will give you answers and where you will find it on papers (I swear). But first what about maths...Please tell me I'm wrong.

Cheers

I didn't state you were wrong; it's a function of a change in the forward price on the underlying. It's model-dependent. We don't pay the same rate to carry, nor do we necessarily earn the same RFR. The practical impact is negligible outside of any *existing* conversion/box/roll arb.

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from atticus:

Your gains were from vega.

Of course , but dmo asked for dollar to > dollar example ( ANY reason why)

 

[dmo]

Quote from MasterAtWork:

Hi Dmo

It is not about probabilities distributions, it about no arbitrage element.
In fact on the option you will make more money than if you were long the underlying, but it occurs when cost of carry are larger than interest rates or interest rates are negatives (Time to maturity is large and the option is deep in the money). We are taking about european style options.
Please check it out before laughing at me, as a great trader behaviour.

Cheers

How was I laughing at you? I think I gave a very straight answer to your question by inviting you to come up with a scenario where, in fact, using real-world criteria, the delta of a call is greater than 1.0. I'm here to learn too.

So let's say crude is $100 a barrel. I'm long the $20 call. We're assuming European-style options. I'll let you choose the time remaining until expiration and an interest rate. You can change the strike price too if you wish.

Crude goes up to $101 a barrel. I'm absolutely open to a nuts-and-bolts, dollars-and-cents scenario in which my account increased by more money than if I were simply long the futures. If a call can have a delta greater than 1.0, then such a scenario has to exist. I'm not saying it doesn't, I just don't know what it would be.

 

[MasterAtWork]

Quote from dmo:

Let's keep in mind that the math is just someone's best attempt to describe real life. So let's skip the "middle man" and go straight to the source.

I'm so Ok with you, I love maths but these are just tools. The point is without maths would you tell me, and teach me, how to comput a delta, a gamma,....It's really things I want to know because my life will be so easier...I'm kidding...

The fact is we are not quite able to do with negatives interest rates as we are quite stopped to think about cost of carry that are higner than risk free rates (maybe think about some commodities..).
Put you money on a monetary investment and have finally less than you did is something not natural but it happens. Please check out history of swiss deposit in the 80's...

But the core business is : Coach said that delta maxes to 1,
my answer is: not always.

Have a nice day

Cheers

 

[MasterAtWork]

Quote from dmo:

How was I laughing at you? I think I gave a very straight answer to your question by inviting you to come up with a scenario where, in fact, using real-world criteria, the delta of a call is greater than 1.0. I'm here to learn too.

So let's say crude is $100 a barrel. I'm long the $20 call. We're assuming European-style options. I'll let you choose the time remaining until expiration and an interest rate. You can change the strike price too if you wish.

Crude goes up to $101 a barrel. I'm absolutely open to a nuts-and-bolts, dollars-and-cents scenario in which my account increased by more money than if I were simply long the futures. If a call can have a delta greater than 1.0, then such a scenario has to exist. I'm not saying it doesn't, I just don't know what it would be.

I was kidding DMO. Please read what I wrote to Xflat, you will see I have a lot of humour.

So I will tell you but first keep on mind that you can loose money on risk free interest rate.

Take price at 90, strike price at 40 risk free rate is 3% cost of carry is 9% and volatility is 20% 2years

d1=(((ln(90/40)+(0,09+SQUARE(0,2)/2)2)/(0,2*square root (2)))=3,6449

N(d1)=N(3,6449)=0,999

Delta=(exp(0,09-0,03)*2)*0,99=1,1273

 

[atticus]

Quote from MasterAtWork:

I was kidding DMO. Please read what I wrote to Xflat, you will see I have a lot of humour.

So I will tell you but first keep on mind that you can loose money on risk free interest rate.

Take price at 90, strike price at 40 risk free rate is 3% cost of carry is 9% and volatility is 20% 2years

d1=(((ln(90/40)+(0,09+SQUARE(0,2)/2)2)/(0,2*square root (2)))=3,6449

N(d1)=N(3,6449)=0,999

Delta=(exp(0,09-0,03)*2)*0,99=1,1273

The maths are correct, and I knew it to be so in a high swap environment. I've yet to witness a commodity in which the swap was 600 basis. CL would be the best empirical-fit, but vols are 40% which would reduce your D to ~1.04 or so [in my head]. Anyway, point taken.