Trading the TQQQ ETF outright. Sometimes I will trade other ETFs/stocks as well, usually avoid options. Thanks.
Need to eliminate the big losses
- Thread starter SteveM
- Start date
Trading the TQQQ ETF outright. Sometimes I will trade other ETFs/stocks as well, usually avoid options. Thanks.
Day 2:
Trade 1 - TQQQ: Bought bar 3 as it was forming at $157.11, placed stop 5 ticks below bar 3 low. Was temped to short bar 3 as it was dipping below 2 (betting on overnight gap closure), but once I saw bar 3 suddenly got strong I thought it was a reasonable buy.
Result: Was hoping to make 1X my risk, but when I saw how weak bar 4 was, I assumed the best thing I'd get was a trading range. Bar 5 was strong, so I just projected 1X the width of the bar up hoping to make a scalp. Got out with a profit at $157.77 during bar 7.
I considered buying 1-tick above bar 14 (3rd reversal attempt up, formed as overnight gap closed), but none of the bars from 8-13 were able to get above prior bars so I decided against it. Would have been a very good trade in retrospect.
Trade 2 - HMNY: Bought the bar 59 close. This thing gapped down big in the morning, as was basically trading sideways all day long. It has had a tendency of rallying late in the day, so I was hoping I might get the same today.
Result: Got stopped out for a loss. Happy that I stuck to my stoploss discipline, but really should have just recognized that the stock was down huge on the day and was in a trading range at best.
The loss on the 2nd trade erased my profit from trade 1. I ended the day at breakeven, but am still profitable over the last two days thanks to a good day yesterday.
Trade 1 - TQQQ: Bought bar 3 as it was forming at $157.11, placed stop 5 ticks below bar 3 low. Was temped to short bar 3 as it was dipping below 2 (betting on overnight gap closure), but once I saw bar 3 suddenly got strong I thought it was a reasonable buy.
Result: Was hoping to make 1X my risk, but when I saw how weak bar 4 was, I assumed the best thing I'd get was a trading range. Bar 5 was strong, so I just projected 1X the width of the bar up hoping to make a scalp. Got out with a profit at $157.77 during bar 7.
I considered buying 1-tick above bar 14 (3rd reversal attempt up, formed as overnight gap closed), but none of the bars from 8-13 were able to get above prior bars so I decided against it. Would have been a very good trade in retrospect.
Trade 2 - HMNY: Bought the bar 59 close. This thing gapped down big in the morning, as was basically trading sideways all day long. It has had a tendency of rallying late in the day, so I was hoping I might get the same today.
Result: Got stopped out for a loss. Happy that I stuck to my stoploss discipline, but really should have just recognized that the stock was down huge on the day and was in a trading range at best.
The loss on the 2nd trade erased my profit from trade 1. I ended the day at breakeven, but am still profitable over the last two days thanks to a good day yesterday.
Day 3: 1/12/2018
Trade 1 - UVXY long @ $8.66 as bar1 was forming. Saw the negative Facebook headline before the open and mixed earnings from WFC and "figured" the market may have some extra volatility on the open and the VIX might be good for a scalp. Stop placed a few ticks below bar 65 from the start of the bull breakout yesterday. Bar1 immediately reversed down as soon as I got in.
Result - exited both trade 1 and trade 2 during bar62 later in the day as the market tested yesterday's high.
Trade 2 - UVXY long @ $8.58 as bar13 was forming. I doubled my position here, with the reasoning that the VIX was looking like it was trading 2-sided and not just the usual bear-bar -after-bear-bar that it usually experiences on most day where stock markets are rallying during recent months. Stop was also placed a few ticks below bar65 from yesterday.
Result - see above
Thoughts: Not really happy about how I went about this trading today. I should not have bought bar 1 based on a gut feeling without the chart confirming it. The scale-in lower was reasonable I think but even there, I should have been more disciplined and patient.
The better thing for me to do would have been to buy 1-tick above bar2 @ $8.64 and then scaled in lower 1-tick above bar15 @ $8.61 and then just get out with a tiny profit at $8.64 on the entire position and move on to getting long the NQ which was solidly grinding higher.
Grateful to have made money though.
Trade 1 - UVXY long @ $8.66 as bar1 was forming. Saw the negative Facebook headline before the open and mixed earnings from WFC and "figured" the market may have some extra volatility on the open and the VIX might be good for a scalp. Stop placed a few ticks below bar 65 from the start of the bull breakout yesterday. Bar1 immediately reversed down as soon as I got in.
Result - exited both trade 1 and trade 2 during bar62 later in the day as the market tested yesterday's high.
Trade 2 - UVXY long @ $8.58 as bar13 was forming. I doubled my position here, with the reasoning that the VIX was looking like it was trading 2-sided and not just the usual bear-bar -after-bear-bar that it usually experiences on most day where stock markets are rallying during recent months. Stop was also placed a few ticks below bar65 from yesterday.
Result - see above
Thoughts: Not really happy about how I went about this trading today. I should not have bought bar 1 based on a gut feeling without the chart confirming it. The scale-in lower was reasonable I think but even there, I should have been more disciplined and patient.
The better thing for me to do would have been to buy 1-tick above bar2 @ $8.64 and then scaled in lower 1-tick above bar15 @ $8.61 and then just get out with a tiny profit at $8.64 on the entire position and move on to getting long the NQ which was solidly grinding higher.
Grateful to have made money though.
Day 4 1/16/2018:
Only including the TNA chart since it was the most important trade I took today.
Trade 1: Long March puts on DIA @ $3.65 strike. Bought on the open, intended to hold a couple months. DJIA was so overbought to begin with. With the MLK holiday 1% gap up, I figured now was as good a time as ever to buy some puts.
Result: Took profit at $4.15. Exited when the DJIA was consolidating after closing the overnight gap, 90 minutes after the open. In retrospect I could have made a lot more if I just sat tight. Dips had so readily been bought lately that I figured this one would close as well and that I shouldn’t get greedy. Also, I took a couple of day trades that went against me, so a part of me wanted to cash in on the profitable puts to get my p/l flat on the day, rather than in the red which it was at the time (due to trade #2)
Trade 2: Long TQQQ @ $167.32. Bought bar12 as it was forming after it ran the stops below bar8, assuming that TQQQ would run higher like usual. In retrospect, bar11 should have a warning to me that I should not take this trade.
Result: Stopped out @ $166.70.
Trade 3: Long SPXL @ $50.45. Bought bar14 as it was forming. Figured the overnight gap closure in the Emini would be good enough to cause a bounce here. While the market did initially bounce, I was stopped out shortly after. This was a poor trade in retrospect. Buying a bear plunge bar is a low-probability move.
Result: Stopped out @ $50.11
Trade 4: Long UVXY @ $9.12. Bought 1-tick above bar36. Was the best trade I took all day, and in retrospect that is because it was the only time all day that I wasn’t trying to fade trends. The problem with this trade is that I quickly grabbed profits at $9.21, only to watch this thing run all the way to $9.95. Could have made $3,000 if I just held on. Cutting winners and holding losers is still very much a problem.
Result: Took profit @ $9.21
Trade 5: Long TNA @ $76.82 (bar54), thinking that that the bear bar53 was biggest bear bar in the 40-bar-long trend down today, had huge volume, and therefore could be climactic. Scaled in lower and doubled position size @ $76.34 and doubled it again $74.93 (bar64).
Result: Sold of this position between $76.01-$76.20 on bar67, using a 1X measured move target with bar 64 as the signal bar and projected upwards. Since I took the largest position at $74.93, the trade worked out profitably, but in retrospect it was stupid and irrational.
Summary: Finished the day profitably, but hate the way it happened, especially the last TNA trade that I scaled into twice as the market was tanking. The best trade of the day was UVXY, and that was because I wasn’t fighting trends and just going with the market. I’m going to slow things down again tomorrow and only take a couple of trades.
Only including the TNA chart since it was the most important trade I took today.
Trade 1: Long March puts on DIA @ $3.65 strike. Bought on the open, intended to hold a couple months. DJIA was so overbought to begin with. With the MLK holiday 1% gap up, I figured now was as good a time as ever to buy some puts.
Result: Took profit at $4.15. Exited when the DJIA was consolidating after closing the overnight gap, 90 minutes after the open. In retrospect I could have made a lot more if I just sat tight. Dips had so readily been bought lately that I figured this one would close as well and that I shouldn’t get greedy. Also, I took a couple of day trades that went against me, so a part of me wanted to cash in on the profitable puts to get my p/l flat on the day, rather than in the red which it was at the time (due to trade #2)
Trade 2: Long TQQQ @ $167.32. Bought bar12 as it was forming after it ran the stops below bar8, assuming that TQQQ would run higher like usual. In retrospect, bar11 should have a warning to me that I should not take this trade.
Result: Stopped out @ $166.70.
Trade 3: Long SPXL @ $50.45. Bought bar14 as it was forming. Figured the overnight gap closure in the Emini would be good enough to cause a bounce here. While the market did initially bounce, I was stopped out shortly after. This was a poor trade in retrospect. Buying a bear plunge bar is a low-probability move.
Result: Stopped out @ $50.11
Trade 4: Long UVXY @ $9.12. Bought 1-tick above bar36. Was the best trade I took all day, and in retrospect that is because it was the only time all day that I wasn’t trying to fade trends. The problem with this trade is that I quickly grabbed profits at $9.21, only to watch this thing run all the way to $9.95. Could have made $3,000 if I just held on. Cutting winners and holding losers is still very much a problem.
Result: Took profit @ $9.21
Trade 5: Long TNA @ $76.82 (bar54), thinking that that the bear bar53 was biggest bear bar in the 40-bar-long trend down today, had huge volume, and therefore could be climactic. Scaled in lower and doubled position size @ $76.34 and doubled it again $74.93 (bar64).
Result: Sold of this position between $76.01-$76.20 on bar67, using a 1X measured move target with bar 64 as the signal bar and projected upwards. Since I took the largest position at $74.93, the trade worked out profitably, but in retrospect it was stupid and irrational.
Summary: Finished the day profitably, but hate the way it happened, especially the last TNA trade that I scaled into twice as the market was tanking. The best trade of the day was UVXY, and that was because I wasn’t fighting trends and just going with the market. I’m going to slow things down again tomorrow and only take a couple of trades.
Day 5 1/17/2018:
Trade 1: Long 5 Feb calls on BAC @ $.90 - Bought as bar7 was forming. After releasing earnings premarket, BAC stock was down -3.3% on the day which seemed a bit excessive to me considering the results. I bought smallish position in calls, hoping for a bounce.
Result: Took profit @ $1.20 during bar28. In retrospect, a better trade would have been to wait for the 2nd bullish reversal attempt, with a particularly strong bull bar like bar20. Buying the calls as bar21 was forming was likely a higher probability trade. Also, I should have held the calls a bit longer – a 1x measured move (bar20 open to bar23 close and projected upwards 1x target) completed on bar35.
Trade 2: Long UVXY @ $9.99 (as bar4 was forming), and scaled in once lower @ $9.88 (as bar6 was forming). After seeing the 4 bar bullish spike to start the day, I figured this might be the start of a bull trend day in VIX, or at least good for a 1X measured move up. Bar5 was disappointing, and I doubled the position at bar6 hoping to get out at breakeven
Result: Stopped out on entire position @ 9.66 on bar7 – in retrospect I was too aggressive and bought too high today – thankfully I was kind of worried about that so I traded small. I’m happy I stuck to my stop loss discipline though, because the UVXY price is $9.03 right now, so taking that loss like an adult saved me $600 bucks.
Trade 3: Long GBTC @ $1490 as bar8 was forming – This was the most difficult trade of the day for me emotionally. After seeing the big gap down, and I felt the selling was a bit climactic, but I wanted to be careful in case bitcoin tanked another 50% today. I bought at bar8, which was a 2nd reversal attempt up, and had to sit through a drawdawn before the market reversed strongly starting at bar14.
Result: Took profit @ $1560 as bar28 was forming. In retrospect, I should have waited for the 3rd reversal (wedge buy) 1-tick above bar 14. Also, I had a limit order to take profits which occurred at bar24 – in retrospect, seeing how strong bar24 was I should have expect higher prices, and waiting for a bear bar to fall below a prior bear bar before selling which would have been bar32.
Trade 4: Long SPXL @ $50.05 on bar29 close. Emini was consolidating above the breakout trying to break higher. This was the “easiest” trade I took today. It just took off as soon as I got in – probably has something to do with not trying to fight trends, fade, be stupid etc.
Result: Took profit @ $50.30 during bar40, which was a 1X measured move target from the 1st 30M opening range. Could have had more if I held on longer.
Summary: The most important thing I did today was stick to my stoploss discipline on UVXY – this is the sort of behavior that has been lacking in my trading leading to big losses. So I am glad that today I did the right thing.
Trade 1: Long 5 Feb calls on BAC @ $.90 - Bought as bar7 was forming. After releasing earnings premarket, BAC stock was down -3.3% on the day which seemed a bit excessive to me considering the results. I bought smallish position in calls, hoping for a bounce.
Result: Took profit @ $1.20 during bar28. In retrospect, a better trade would have been to wait for the 2nd bullish reversal attempt, with a particularly strong bull bar like bar20. Buying the calls as bar21 was forming was likely a higher probability trade. Also, I should have held the calls a bit longer – a 1x measured move (bar20 open to bar23 close and projected upwards 1x target) completed on bar35.
Trade 2: Long UVXY @ $9.99 (as bar4 was forming), and scaled in once lower @ $9.88 (as bar6 was forming). After seeing the 4 bar bullish spike to start the day, I figured this might be the start of a bull trend day in VIX, or at least good for a 1X measured move up. Bar5 was disappointing, and I doubled the position at bar6 hoping to get out at breakeven
Result: Stopped out on entire position @ 9.66 on bar7 – in retrospect I was too aggressive and bought too high today – thankfully I was kind of worried about that so I traded small. I’m happy I stuck to my stop loss discipline though, because the UVXY price is $9.03 right now, so taking that loss like an adult saved me $600 bucks.
Trade 3: Long GBTC @ $1490 as bar8 was forming – This was the most difficult trade of the day for me emotionally. After seeing the big gap down, and I felt the selling was a bit climactic, but I wanted to be careful in case bitcoin tanked another 50% today. I bought at bar8, which was a 2nd reversal attempt up, and had to sit through a drawdawn before the market reversed strongly starting at bar14.
Result: Took profit @ $1560 as bar28 was forming. In retrospect, I should have waited for the 3rd reversal (wedge buy) 1-tick above bar 14. Also, I had a limit order to take profits which occurred at bar24 – in retrospect, seeing how strong bar24 was I should have expect higher prices, and waiting for a bear bar to fall below a prior bear bar before selling which would have been bar32.
Trade 4: Long SPXL @ $50.05 on bar29 close. Emini was consolidating above the breakout trying to break higher. This was the “easiest” trade I took today. It just took off as soon as I got in – probably has something to do with not trying to fight trends, fade, be stupid etc.
Result: Took profit @ $50.30 during bar40, which was a 1X measured move target from the 1st 30M opening range. Could have had more if I held on longer.
Summary: The most important thing I did today was stick to my stoploss discipline on UVXY – this is the sort of behavior that has been lacking in my trading leading to big losses. So I am glad that today I did the right thing.
sss12, thanks for your feedback - I agree it was a bad trade in retrospect. Sometimes when you have a lengthy bear trend that goes on for a couple hours, and you get a big bear bar that shoots below the bear channel, that bear bar is often climactic and leads to a test of the top of the bear channel. Certainly not yesterday though. In retrospect, I think I've become so conditioned to "all dips in US stocks get bought" in recent months (example: today's huge bull reversal on the daily chart) that in my mind I was looking for things I wanted to be there rather than things that were there.
Funny thing about reading price action after the fact is that it tricks you into thinking it can be easy, fact is, it never is.
Day 6: 1/18/2018
Summary: I took 7 trades today across several markets and I don’t have time to go through every single chart, but I am going to include the chart of the most important trade I took today (DGAZ), and the TQQQ chart to try and explain why I messed up trading the Nasdaq and Russell today.
Overall, I netted $500 today and am happy about that, but I don’t like how I went about it. My first two trades of the day were losers – I took small losses and stuck to my stops which was good. However, on trade 3 which I will share below, I took much risk.
Trade 3: Long DGAZ (3x short natural gas ETF) @ $23.25 on bar13 close. Natural gas inventory report came in showing inventories slightly higher than expected. This coupled with natural gas immediately selling off, coupled with 10-day US temperature outlook projected to be above average, gave me reason to believe that Nat gas may sell off all day. So I took a position long DGAZ (which is short nat gas). The problem I have with the trade is that the reasonable stop was far away below bar13 and therefore my position size should have been smaller.
TQQQ chart: I got short at the bottom of the big bear bar7, but should have realized that the first 6 bars of the day was an overlapping trading range, and therefore breakouts may not be reliable, even on a day where there is a threat of a govt shutdown. I exited the short on the bar10 close, only to watch the market test back down 1 more time on bar11 (should have remembered that most moves have 2 legs). That’s another thing I struggle with – buying high and selling low in trading range days. Need to remember to do the opposite of my instincts on those days.
In retrospect the best trades today in TQQQ were to buy 1-tick above bar10 (3rd reversal attempt/wedge) or 1-tick above bar12, and hope for a 1x measured move back into the TR or even above the TR, which is what happened.
I’m also still holding 3 Feb calls on SQ that I bought @ $1.46 – underwater on these and will most likely hold through earnings on Feb 7th.
Thanks for reading.
Summary: I took 7 trades today across several markets and I don’t have time to go through every single chart, but I am going to include the chart of the most important trade I took today (DGAZ), and the TQQQ chart to try and explain why I messed up trading the Nasdaq and Russell today.
Overall, I netted $500 today and am happy about that, but I don’t like how I went about it. My first two trades of the day were losers – I took small losses and stuck to my stops which was good. However, on trade 3 which I will share below, I took much risk.
Trade 3: Long DGAZ (3x short natural gas ETF) @ $23.25 on bar13 close. Natural gas inventory report came in showing inventories slightly higher than expected. This coupled with natural gas immediately selling off, coupled with 10-day US temperature outlook projected to be above average, gave me reason to believe that Nat gas may sell off all day. So I took a position long DGAZ (which is short nat gas). The problem I have with the trade is that the reasonable stop was far away below bar13 and therefore my position size should have been smaller.
TQQQ chart: I got short at the bottom of the big bear bar7, but should have realized that the first 6 bars of the day was an overlapping trading range, and therefore breakouts may not be reliable, even on a day where there is a threat of a govt shutdown. I exited the short on the bar10 close, only to watch the market test back down 1 more time on bar11 (should have remembered that most moves have 2 legs). That’s another thing I struggle with – buying high and selling low in trading range days. Need to remember to do the opposite of my instincts on those days.
In retrospect the best trades today in TQQQ were to buy 1-tick above bar10 (3rd reversal attempt/wedge) or 1-tick above bar12, and hope for a 1x measured move back into the TR or even above the TR, which is what happened.
I’m also still holding 3 Feb calls on SQ that I bought @ $1.46 – underwater on these and will most likely hold through earnings on Feb 7th.
Thanks for reading.