Need somewhere to think out loud,

90% losers, but mainly SL testing today, -$1400 on DEMO thank fuck!!

Some got into good profits, inventing day and happy with the results thus far.

Market can turn against me and keep going for a while like big pts slowly, but entirely my fault for holding counter trend.

6ema for the range.
12sma for the direction.

kicked ass into the close, up and down.

NQ long got took out too soon mind, could of got +10pts then flipped to down, but hey that's life, ES didn't and only trading NQ for better SL testing.
 
Testing UK100 ready for the am, demo live testing, confidence is everything

20th Oct 10am start.

down move, join ?? short 5898 SL fluid LOL turned again, manual exit, SL it tight but emergency as it'll give me room -1pt exit available.

Long 5900, didn't go far +2 LOL

First short wouldn't of hit sl, would of got to profit,.

Down, short 5898, +9 long bottom

Long, didn't go far, then mass sell off SL hit as that's too fast = EXIT!!

Shorts, didn't go far

turn up, nice move up, funny thing, if trading stupid or internet goes down, SL will literally let me hold it all the way up for 17pts then all the way down again LOL

Working, but have to remember, SL is there for emergencys, most exits will be done manually hopefully at a better price than SL or atleast won't hit SL, get back in, hit SL, get back in hit SL, cheaper for SL to move 5pts than that hell.
 
Method logic looking good, leaves me to focus on direction, gets me out quick on news spikes.

Just got to stay on direction the best I can and take profits often.
 
Another day, playing with charts, in demo profit but only due to 1 good run, losers losers and more losers, okay i'm lazy and don't close and take demo profits which doesn't help!

So observations :-


1. It's all bullshit, something that works 1 day kills you the next :(
2. More patience, okay demo so not the same, firing in random trades.
3. Risk to Reward ratio is how to beat this, so tight SL entries which even 50/50 win rate, go 3-5x's the SL cost with moving later.
4. Simple 8sma + Envelope 8sma H+0.04 and L-0.04 gives me some info, better than a blank screen, range is playable with a tight SL ofcourse.
5. Draw a horizontal line on the chart, move under prev cluster/support and resistance, identify buying area then, then use for bounces tight SL.

I think 5 is key and most of my profits are from 5, buy support then hold for 30pts risking 8 on NQ.

Another week gone, account no change I think as mostly demo!
 
Friday and finally got my head back in the game, my trades are losing cause I'm trading what's happened, not what's about to happen.

Pull back, Cluster, turn up join that, joining trend is okay early on, later on fools game.

To scared to join the early trend, so by the time I join the pull back is a trend change, been here a 100nd times.

Demo account +$400 was -$1200 early all losers, all profits.

Ofcourse Friday, so by Monday back to square 1 all forgotten.
 
Okay my mailfunction the last few weeks is simply....

I'm trying to join the trend always via a pull back, fools game join the strength / breakout be brave which is needed and exit quick when wrong.

So do look for bottoms/tops then join at the lows or on the turn early.

First I trend and lose, then I bottom fish to get my money back and feels long the wrong way to trade so i beat myself up for bad trading which forces me back to losing the next time I trade.

Joining looks easy after the event, bottom/top picking looks hard why my persistence with riding trend.


Hopefully profits all the time, print this out, stick to computer read every day before trading.
 
I can still see the trades I should be taking, strangely first thing 3pm when I got up, I couldn't see entries on historic chart, trading really does screw your brain cell up.

Method, pretty much final 1.

SMA 5 High
SMA 5 Low
Envelope 5 H+0.03 and L-0.03

EMA 18

Loads of trades / setups that work most of the time, if I keep screwing it up live, then defo need some mental help.
 
Retrain Brain,Retrain Brain....

Okay, so waiting for too much of a pull back before I join trend, I'm like a rabbit in car lights again mind trend, when I should enter then exit asap if it stalls and ride it in the mean time, so backtesting time.

ES 21st Oct 15:46 gmt lets play...

Short 3453 - flattening 3435 + 18pts nice.

Bottom cluster formed 9mins no new lows. 3434 area. Ran to 3449 auto sl would of knocked out 3446.

No way to call that sell off madness

Random then massive upward spike, avoid random.

I remember this selloff I took a long and got slapped.


Method and logic are fine, simple, just got to start trusting method and trading what the 5's direction is in the inner SMA H and L band.

A move outside of the 5's High / Low is a 50% chance direction will change, before I was running H+0.06% and waiting for that entry to reverse, gets to 0.06% out and it's DEFINATELY changed, only running H+0.03% here.

1 more day, to not lose the plot, DEMO, DEMO DEMO, then Live Tuesday is the plan!! subject to going stupid.

Should be making +$1000 daily from this, get head in the game, muppet.
 
Testing and Testing and Testing and FASTER looks better, got to remove the delay more than a 5sma, do 4LWMA based looks better.

So....

4LWMA High
4LWMA Low
Envelope 4Lwma high +0.03%
Envelope 4lwma Low -0.03%

Also looking like a 10LWMA ( Envelope 10lwma 0.01% ) looks ideal for main direction.

Lets see how it goes tomorrow UK then later on ES, Live is always tricky, need to really zone in on, directions changes, I've got 2pts profit, that's not enough, click and flip sides, ignore the 2pts not enough, it's better than -4pts after all.

Faster, Scalpier and learn to trade it, looks like the only way to go here, good job I'm a gamer!!
 
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