Need somewhere to think out loud,
- Thread starter Turveyd
- Start date
Another direction change and loser 6pts more $1 thankfully.
Method tweak.
Envelope 8 0.03 and 0.06 and SMA 8
0.03 range is key, tight SL's reduce what I'm losing.
No longer trend to confuse / give false hope.
Short 11245, 0.03 down channel so SL outside the 0.03 not the 0.06
Simplify, TOWN CAKE, WALK come back trade US Session better ( can't do much worse )
Holding for big profits = holding for SL 90% of the damn time LOL
Method tweak.
Envelope 8 0.03 and 0.06 and SMA 8
0.03 range is key, tight SL's reduce what I'm losing.
No longer trend to confuse / give false hope.
Short 11245, 0.03 down channel so SL outside the 0.03 not the 0.06
Simplify, TOWN CAKE, WALK come back trade US Session better ( can't do much worse )
Holding for big profits = holding for SL 90% of the damn time LOL
Putting Trading on hold until back from holiday all next week, screw it, tired, don't want to play, but theory till then.
Method, went from working well to a string of losers, it's always 100% win or 100% lose with me, oddly. Market conditions suite then 100% win, or they don't and 100% lose, annoying.
Method on test...
Envelope 10sma 0.03 and 0.05.
As always, making decisions on the unknown live are damn near impossible.
Need to find a single entry setup, that works in most conditions, with okay odds on profit 60%+ but mainly a small risk, bigger profit 3x's would be nice at times.
DAX Short Op here @12361 SL 65, worked but only to 56 +5 why bother, 10's turned up flip long 57 went +9
Yesterday +5 wouldn't of been enough, I'd of held for break down and still be short and SL'd, you 2nd guess too late, exit missed and trapped, is the issue. all trades went 3+ profit thought should take, didn't, left to SL hoping for a +30.
DAX long 62, joining 10's upward, SL 55 so 7 risk, back at 62, dropping, 10 turning maybe, tighten SL to 57, range held back in profit just.
10 plan if Followed correctly works, where I lose money yesterday worked then aswell.
Method, went from working well to a string of losers, it's always 100% win or 100% lose with me, oddly. Market conditions suite then 100% win, or they don't and 100% lose, annoying.
Method on test...
Envelope 10sma 0.03 and 0.05.
As always, making decisions on the unknown live are damn near impossible.
Need to find a single entry setup, that works in most conditions, with okay odds on profit 60%+ but mainly a small risk, bigger profit 3x's would be nice at times.
DAX Short Op here @12361 SL 65, worked but only to 56 +5 why bother, 10's turned up flip long 57 went +9
Yesterday +5 wouldn't of been enough, I'd of held for break down and still be short and SL'd, you 2nd guess too late, exit missed and trapped, is the issue. all trades went 3+ profit thought should take, didn't, left to SL hoping for a +30.
DAX long 62, joining 10's upward, SL 55 so 7 risk, back at 62, dropping, 10 turning maybe, tighten SL to 57, range held back in profit just.
10 plan if Followed correctly works, where I lose money yesterday worked then aswell.
Testing other similar setups ie playing with numbers.
Inner Envelope 8EMA 0.03 looks ideal range entry wise.
Outter Envelope 13SMA 0.05 looks ideal outter range and main direction and SL Placement.
Back Testing, that's all you need and that's the plan, can't keep confusing myself, works in most conditions, single entry via 8ema's range.
Gym and Swim as feeling uggggg, school run, maybe trade on tablet later, but errr.
LIFE!!
Inner Envelope 8EMA 0.03 looks ideal range entry wise.
Outter Envelope 13SMA 0.05 looks ideal outter range and main direction and SL Placement.
Back Testing, that's all you need and that's the plan, can't keep confusing myself, works in most conditions, single entry via 8ema's range.
Gym and Swim as feeling uggggg, school run, maybe trade on tablet later, but errr.
LIFE!!
4 trades no losers +31 back on $1 mind, still -§40 on the week.
Not over staying welcome is key, if it goes +3 and stalls, its for a reason, sell dont take -10.
8ema tracks faster so more pull backs to outters to trade off ie noise.
13 0.05 good range during chop and during trend good direction.
Its mainly trading 8 noise and rather than hoping for a breakout and getting SLd taking thy profit, unless actually broken out then i hold, or worrying i’ll miss a break out.
Trading casually im good, trading to make money all turns to losers, got to get this sorted.
Work
Not over staying welcome is key, if it goes +3 and stalls, its for a reason, sell dont take -10.
8ema tracks faster so more pull backs to outters to trade off ie noise.
13 0.05 good range during chop and during trend good direction.
Its mainly trading 8 noise and rather than hoping for a breakout and getting SLd taking thy profit, unless actually broken out then i hold, or worrying i’ll miss a break out.
Trading casually im good, trading to make money all turns to losers, got to get this sorted.
Work
Have you ever looked at FGBL instead of FDAX?
Some food 4 brain:
1/ FDAX intraday is big boys free zone like YM or NQ or Russel. All big boys trade FESX. So 6 points per 8 seconds is not some exceptional for DAX. I’ve seen 40 points steady move and this is 1000 euro per contract. I know you trade CFD but some time you will move to prime market. Are you ready for this risk?
FDAX is very, very complicated for daytrading – aka @Handle123 spoke this to you and I am 100% agree with him.
FDAX is ‘double derivative’ so to speak. From one side it’s derivative of spot index which is huge capitalized comparing to DAX future. BUT, the same time it is lagging, depended future of FESX where the real volume is, hedgers, funds, etc. This means that when FESX moves 3 ticks (which is ‘natural noise’, order filling DOM games, etc) – FDAX must follow, and it follows producing 10-20 ticks move.
2/ FESX is very smooth, more volume than ES and trades slower and more smooth, but look at daily trading range. Look and think whether you can get peace of this cake. Consider trade costs (not comms) – spread for entry and spread for exit – 2 ticks. Look again at daily range and compute.
3/ FGBL is good compromise. Intraday swings are tens of ticks. 10 ticks per day as goal is very reasonable goal and you can turnover up to 300 contracts without slippage – this is 30K euro (your perspective). For the start the risk should be minimized so 1 car per lot and look – 5+- tick stop is for scalping, 10+- stop for intraday swinging is more than enough. This is 50 or 100 euro risk AND no CDF needed, you can trade the real market
I tried to explain all of this in English which is not my native as you of course see… J
So look at FGBL, seriously.
Some food 4 brain:
1/ FDAX intraday is big boys free zone like YM or NQ or Russel. All big boys trade FESX. So 6 points per 8 seconds is not some exceptional for DAX. I’ve seen 40 points steady move and this is 1000 euro per contract. I know you trade CFD but some time you will move to prime market. Are you ready for this risk?
FDAX is very, very complicated for daytrading – aka @Handle123 spoke this to you and I am 100% agree with him.
FDAX is ‘double derivative’ so to speak. From one side it’s derivative of spot index which is huge capitalized comparing to DAX future. BUT, the same time it is lagging, depended future of FESX where the real volume is, hedgers, funds, etc. This means that when FESX moves 3 ticks (which is ‘natural noise’, order filling DOM games, etc) – FDAX must follow, and it follows producing 10-20 ticks move.
2/ FESX is very smooth, more volume than ES and trades slower and more smooth, but look at daily trading range. Look and think whether you can get peace of this cake. Consider trade costs (not comms) – spread for entry and spread for exit – 2 ticks. Look again at daily range and compute.
3/ FGBL is good compromise. Intraday swings are tens of ticks. 10 ticks per day as goal is very reasonable goal and you can turnover up to 300 contracts without slippage – this is 30K euro (your perspective). For the start the risk should be minimized so 1 car per lot and look – 5+- tick stop is for scalping, 10+- stop for intraday swinging is more than enough. This is 50 or 100 euro risk AND no CDF needed, you can trade the real market
I tried to explain all of this in English which is not my native as you of course see… J
So look at FGBL, seriously.
Attachments
If you will look at FGBL from your SMA envelope based method POV, consider not only time based, but also volume or tick based chart. You will see how relaxing daytrading can be after FDAX insanity 
And also how pretty is real exchange traded future compared to artifical CFD. Like squeezed juice VS packeted.
And also how pretty is real exchange traded future compared to artifical CFD. Like squeezed juice VS packeted.
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