Need somewhere to think out loud,

Fast then Slower, can't work out what I like, sure not seeing 11sma based trades earlier so moved to a 30sma based, more range less direction, looked better today and a few days I've back tested, 11sma works on faster days / times, 30 works more often.

Settings Envelope 30sma 0.01 0.04 and 0.08 and 60sma 0.01 slower direction.

Rules are enter upto 3x's.

Trend in 0.01 and near 0.04 and in 0.08, good odds it'll turn sooner or later.
Chop/Sideways near 0.04 and near 0.08, good odds it'll chop to the other side.

But that's the theory, lets do some quick historic tests of above rules and see if SL hit or profit.

DAX 4th March 8am ( D= Downtrend, R= Range, U - Uptrend, P=Profit, S = SL hit )

DPPPPP
UPPS
DPS
UPS
DPS
UPPP
RPPPPPPSPP
DPHuge

4th March the P's have it!! :) Only taking S's on Definate Trend changes.


6th and 7th look as good, just a matter of building confidence to take live I guess!!
 
Sadly blew 300 on a trade, bad exit rules, then pulled back 80 so about -20 on the day.

Looking like slower sma might be key, 60 too slow .40 looks better, slowing it all down.
 
Better MM logic....

Trend entry near 40sma SL out to 0.04, loss too much, odds to high and trend change. 2 positions max.

Trades taken near 0.04. Sl 0.08 single position only too much chance of creeping.

Chop trades out to 0.08 single and tight SL.

Theme working for me, keep improving but stay on theme, mission is not profitable, irs smashing it, trading easy 20 times per day and making dream returns or die trying.
 
I see what is tricking me......

Slow is delibrate, slow is trend change.
Fast\spikey is fake is chop.

See slow, get out of its way, see spikey get in its way, it's making me trust the range cause its slow, which is the trap, slow join, my loser today.

Still some mastering to get sorted, but aware so half the battle.
 
Moving to 42sma based, near enough 40 and the meaning of life so got to be a winner.

Break over the 0.04 high odds on momo up move so added Envelope 6sma 0.02 for this case only to join this momo and exit quickly on actually its just going to chop.

My losing trade yesterday, it would of saved my ass and turned a nice profit.

Rule would be up 25pts on dax just.


Full trading plan I can use live should be in place this week :) easter off, rock it next week :)
 
Looking good :)
 

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New rules are working very well today on the DAX and GPBUSD and okay on US30.

Had work today sadly, but IF I could of followed the rules and let trades run, then I'd of likely done very well!!

Tomorrow pretty clear to trade all being well.
 
99% sure, method is where I want it FINALLY I will add, answer wasn't what I expected, which I expected to be 11sma area based interestingly, but guess that's why it took so long :(

A year or 10 of practicing and mastering and I'm pretty sure I'll be finally making the kinda money I'm after, it's never easy and it always takes wayyyy longer than planned, I think 2 weeks but 1 - 10 years is expected.
 
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